The NFL may look to renegotiate its media rights agreements prior to its 2029 opt-out, a new report suggests.
According to John Ourand of Puck, “the league could approach networks before the 2029 opt-out and try to renegotiate new deals. In this current configuration, the NFL would waive any opt-out provision and extend the current broadcast deals, which expire in 2033, for another year or two.”
Ourand suggests “a lot has to happen” before the NFL would exercise this kind of strategy. But in doing so, the NFL would bring itself to market prior to the expiration of the MLB and NHL deals in 2028, perhaps giving prospective rights buyers more dry powder than if they had already dedicated much of their budget to the other leagues.
An earlier timing would also potentially provide the NFL a more favorable environment when it comes to the legacy broadcast networks. Come 2029, networks like CBS and Fox might be in a less advantageous position to bid on sports rights as cord-cutting trends continue. Renegotiating these deals earlier “would also likely enlarge the bidding pool, and may ensure that traditional media companies keep streamers at bay for at least one more cycle,” Ourand suggests.
The first domino to fall in all of this involves Skydance Media’s impending merger with CBS parent company Paramount. The change of ownership triggers a “change-of-control provision” that allows the NFL to renegotiate its deal with the network should it choose. So far, it appears the NFL won’t take that route, but it has two years after the sale to decide whether to do so.
Either way, this report indicates that the NFL is not satisfied with its current media rights arrangement. This year, the NBA begins its 11-year, $76 billion deal that will see both Comcast’s NBC and Disney’s ESPN paying more for rights to air pro basketball than they’re paying to air the NFL. That alone is a flashing red light for the NFL that their current rights deals are undervalued.
Should the NFL decide to renegotiate early, or do so in 2029 when its current opt-out clause hits, the league’s next set of media rights deals are sure to look much different.