As 2024/25 came to a close, the messages were clear: be very excited Arsenal fans.
But us Arsenal fans had heard it all before. How would this summer be any different to many others in the Emirates Era?
Talk was that we had “taken Europe by surprise” with how aggressive we had come out of the starting blocks in transfer negotiations. Players had been approached by rivals at home and abroad only to be told “no, I want to join Arsenal”.
But by the end of June, we had signed no-one. Nothing. Zilch. And this lead to a loud minority of Arsenal fans to question Mikel Arteta and new Sporting Director Andrea Berta.
“Monitoring FC”
“Linked FC”
“Weighing Up FC”
“Interested FC”
“Talking Too FC”
These were just a few of the things the “banter” social media accounts were labelling us. Of course, they rely on social media income to pay for their lives in Nigeria, Finland, India or Somalia. And they will never let the truth get in the way of social media revenue.
But come July, and things have exploded.
At the time of writing (Sunday), Kepa is in the bag. The ex-Chelsea man is the best 2nd choice keeper in the league. Martin Zubimendi has also been announced.
The Zubimendi deal came in a couple of hours after we blogged that this could be a Big Week for The Arsenal. We do not have inside knowledge. It was just very obvious to everyone (except for the negative nancies) that a few big deals were about to explode.
And hot on the heels of the Zubimendi deal came that news that personal terms had been agreed with both Viktor Gyorekes and Noni Madueke. By the time this is published, deals for the pair and Christian Norgaard could be confirmed.
Further deals could also be done for Cristhian Mosquera, Rodrygo and Eberechi Eze. And the talk is that it is not Eze or Rodrygo, but it is both. And neither deal is impacted by the recruitment of Madueke or a new striker.
If we do a deal for them all (and it is a big “if”), then we could spend in excess of £340m this summer:
Kepa – £5m
Martin Zubimendi – £60m
Christian Norgaard – £10m
Noni Madueke – £40m
Viktor Gyorekes – £65m
Cristhian Mosquera – £20m
Rodrygo – £80m
Eberechi Eze – £60m
That would be £340m. Unbelievably huge spending! Especially for a club with cautious owners such as the Kroenke’s, and who will have no interest in selling the women’s team to themselves for an inflated price to make the books balance.
So how could Arsenal spend £340m?
Our 2024/25 accounts will show record revenue. This will break the record is set in 2023/24 of £616.6 million, which in turn was £150m higher than the 2022/23 figure of £466.7 million.
To put simply, the more we make in revenue, the more we can increase our amortised fee expenditure and wage bill. So the majoirty of this summers expenditure would have already been accounted for in the 2025/26 budget projects.
On top of this, you then have the money which is free’d up by exiting players.
When a player departs it is not just the transfer fee that is important, although this is essential as it increases the cash you have available to buy players based on their book value. The club also makes a saving in wages and amortisation costs.
Take Thomas Partey as a great example of this.
He has left on a free transfer, which on the face of it should not free up any extra cash, if all you care about is “net spend”.
But Partey was costing us £9 million a year in amortised transfer costs (£45m transfer fee split over 5 years), and £10.5m a year in wages. So his departure gives us £19.5m extra head room in 2025/26 against 2024/25.
How much in wages and amortisation costs will Arsenal look to “save”
With 6 senior members of the first team squad confirmed as departing, Arsenal have increased their available funds to be spent on amoritsed transfer costs and new salaries by £36.5m.
On top of that, despite 3 players departing on a free and one for a loss, we have made a small book profit. This means that none of those savings need to be paid towards transfer costs not yet amortised. Everything is covered by those incoming fees.
At least a further 4 players are expected to depart this summer which will save the club another £24.8m. And as long as their total sales exceed £23m, we will not take a book loss on their combined exits.
I would not be surprised if the above 4 depart for a combined £60m+. That would give us an excess of £37m. Important cash that can be used to finance deals and ensure we keep within PSR.
Finally, we come on to two first team player exits – Gabriel Martinelli and Leandro Trossard.
Now I like both. But considering the players we are being linked with (Rodrygo and Eze), you can not feel that “like for like” replacements are being sought.
Rodrygo is likely to come in for Martinelli as first choice left winger. And whilst I would favour keeping Martinelli as back up, it would be hard for the club to justify a £180k a week man sitting on the bench, especially if £70-80m is being offered by Saudi Arabia.
Eze for Trossard would also be like for like, with the Crystal Palace man being about to replicate Trossard’s covering of every attacking position.
Rodrygo is an upgrade on Martinelli. Eze is an upgrade on Trossard.
Trossard and Martinelli would add an extra £19.74m a year to our headroom. And if we can bank £100m in book value profit on Martinelli and Trossard, you would have to think it was great business.
In total, we could look to:
Save £37.5m in amortised transfer fees
Save £48.94m in salary
Generate £131.3m in transfer profit
Huge figures.
So what does that allow us to spend?
In the most simple terms, on top of what we had available to spend the exits mentioned above will give us an additional £85.44m headroom in amoritised transfer costs and salaries, and a further £131.3m in cash.
We have handed out new contracts to Miles Lewis-Skelly and Gabriel. These are likely to cost us in the region of £5.2m year extra (I expect that Gabriel’s has gone from £100k a week to £150k, and MLS increase for £4k to above £50k). That means bit more than £5m additional is already being spent. For ease, lets say that is now £80m headroom.
Now we all know by now that amortised transfer costs are the value of the fee spread across the length of the contract. But of course, we also still need the cash to pay upfront (or instalments)
So how much will that £340m worth of talent actually cost us?
By my estimation (and official figures will differ), 8 new signings, £340m in transfer fee and their associated salaries will increase our outgoings by around £124m a year.
That £124m is then offset by the £80m in savings we have made, meaning that 8 in and 12 out will cost us a net £44m a year (by the time you also factor in Gabriel and MLS contracts).
Considering we are likely expecting to make in excess of £700m in revenue this year following our semi-final Champions League appearance and increased sponsorship deals, that additional £44m is easily found in the additional £60m in revenue.
But what about the cash?
The final factor is “where do we find £340m to buy the players”. And it is a legitimate concern.
Whilst you might be able to amortise the transfer fee across the length of the contract, you still need to find the cash to initially buy the players.
You could, of course, try and agree on instalments for the player you are signing. We have done this with Zubimendi and any deal for Eze will likely be similar. Beyond this, you are looking at loans from either a bank or your owners to bridge the gap.
Ideally we do not want to leverage the club with debt to buy players, and loans should only be taken out in exceptional circumstances. So my betting is Arsenal try and make it work through the structures of the deals.
We probably have in the region of £150m surplus cash before sales to make signings this summer. An additional £130m could be generated through players sales (as above), which would leave us a gap of £60m.
We have agreed to pay for Zubimendi in 3 instalments of £20m. That is therefore a cash saving this year of £40m. Likewise a deal for Eze will probably be similar.
So even if we can not do instalment deals for other players, we can comfortable pay for £340 using our own current cash position, the money from incoming players, and factoring in instalment deals for Zubimendi and Eze.
We were told to expect a huge summer, and this could be coming to fruition very quickly…
And if you have got this far in the blog, you deserve to have a great summer!!!
Keenos