Welcome to 32 teams in 32 days. To get us through the offseason, we’ll be examining every team in the NFL, in order of projected 2025 win totals. Up next: the Bills.
It’s strange to say, but patience might be running low for the Buffalo Bills, a team with six consecutive trips to the playoffs and not a single Super Bowl appearance to show for it.
GM Brandon Beane’s bold decisions to part with older talent in 2024 paved the way for a new crop of core players, but it did not lead to the ultimate prize after the Chiefs ended the Bills’ playoff hopes for the fourth time in five seasons. Still, Beane doubled down on his approach of prioritizing homegrown talent.
The Bills didn’t need much tweaking with an offense that averaged 30.9 points per game last season, leading to Josh Allen winning his first MVP award. Buffalo won a divisional playoff matchup against the Ravens, who made the splash move for running back Derrick Henry. So Beane’s retooling of the roster and shift in philosophy did pay dividends, but not enough to get past the Chiefs.
If similar results occur in 2025, the Bills may begin asking whether drastic changes are needed to finally break through.
Let’s take a closer look at the Bills.
What’s at stake this season: Beane’s bet on homegrown talent
The Bills made a few outside moves that have largely gone under the radar, one being the addition of edge rusher Joey Bosa. Still, for a team that has made an annual habit of falling short in the postseason, it’s fair to ask whether Beane should have been more aggressive this offseason.
Allen needs a legitimate No. 1 wideout, but Beane hasn’t received enough praise for building a quality offensive line and getting it right with several draft picks. That’s been enough for Allen to lead a high-scoring offense and for coach Sean McDermott to form a quality defense. The Bills still need more from tight end Dalton Kincaid and wide receiver Keon Coleman. Still, not many expected cornerback Christian Benford, linebacker Terrel Bernard, wide receiver Khalil Shakir and many others to blossom the way they have in recent seasons.
With Beane redoing Allen’s contract—a massive six-year, $330 extension that created wiggle room with the team’s salary cap—it allowed him to re-sign Bernard, Benford, Shakir, edge rusher Gregory Rousseau and a few other key starters.
Beane and McDermott have created a roster with strengths throughout, despite lacking household names outside of Allen. That includes the secondary, particularly if first-round rookie cornerback Maxwell Hairston quickly finds his footing.
However, if the Bills again fall short of making the Super Bowl, Beane may have to evaluate this conservative approach he has taken over the past few offseasons.
Buffalo Bills running back James Cook
James Cook is looking for a contract extension after leading the Bills with 18 total touchdowns last season. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Biggest question going into training camp: Will RB James Cook get an extension?
Cook is another player who has panned out for Beane, but now there’s a dilemma with how much the 2022 second-round pick is worth when it comes to his contract extension.
Cook, who rushed for 1,009 yards and 16 touchdowns last year, is the team’s best skill player, and his production in the ground game has taken pressure off Allen. So there’s some leverage for Cook, but the increasing market for running backs has made this a tricky situation.
After Saquon Barkley and Henry got their new deals, teams may have trouble deciding a fair price point for the next tier of running backs. Cook may take a hometown discount or take his chances to cash in next offseason.
Sources are saying: The Bills’ defense might need help
“I don’t believe Buffalo has enough defense. [Josh Allen] is plenty good enough to carry them almost all the way. Their offense has to copy and paste their performance from last year.” —an NFC coach
Breakout player candidate/X-factor: Coleman
It makes sense why Beane got testy with radio hosts who had issues with the team’s receiving corps. Last year, the Bills had one of the best offenses in the league, and Allen earned his first MVP while throwing to a group of pass catchers similar to this year’s crew.
Beane might have also been annoyed with how much Coleman, the 2024 first-round pick, has been overlooked this offseason. Coleman recorded only 29 catches for 556 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie. Still, maybe Beane has taken notice of Coleman’s improvements this offseason and expects a big Year 2, which would explain why he avoided a splash move at the position. Allen has high hopes for Coleman in 2025.
Head coach-quarterbacktandem ranking: 5
The Bills have the reigning MVP at quarterback and a coach who, despite his conservative flaws, has guided Buffalo to five consecutive AFC East titles. Buffalo is a Super Bowl contender led by Allen, who reached his second AFC title game last year, amassing 4,262 total yards and 40 touchdowns. The offense should be high-powered once more despite not having a great receiver, while McDermott’s defense is the big question mark. —Matt Verderame
Fantasy pick: Cook
Cook was fantastic last season, scoring 18 touchdowns and finishing as one of the better running backs in fantasy football. He should remain a productive player for managers, but you have to draft him with the expectation that touchdown regression is coming based on historical trends. It’s hit the likes of Jonathan Taylor, James Conner and Austin Ekeler in recent years, and Cook is likely next in line. That’s not to suggest he’ll be a bust, but fans should expect a six-to-eight touchdown decline compared to 2024. —Michael Fabiano
Best bet: To be AFC’s No. 1 seed (+195) via DraftKings
The Bills have the highest win total in the NFL at 11.5, with the odds juiced toward the over. Not only do they have the reigning MVP at quarterback, but they return the majority of their roster and should be poised for another deep playoff run. Most importantly, they have the fifth-easiest schedule in the NFL, which is typically rare for a team with a first-place schedule. We’ll see if they can finally win a Super Bowl, but I think they’re a great bet to be the No. 1 seed in the AFC. —Iain MacMillan
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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