The Pittsburgh Steelers finished the 2024 season in the worst way possible. After starting 10-3 and having control over their own destiny in the AFC North, they tumbled to the finish line, losing their last four regular-season games and being trounced by the Baltimore Ravens in the Wild Card round. That prompted an offseason that has been full of changes, yet outside expectations for the Steelers in 2025 don’t seem to be much higher. On FOX Sports’ Breakfast Ball on Tuesday, the Steelers’ 8.5 expected win total was mentioned. Analyst Craig Carton believes Pittsburgh will clear that, and he’s pretty confident.
“Here’s what’s crazy about that particular over/under, it hasn’t changed, since they signed Aaron Rodgers,” Carton said. “And that’s confusing to me. Because, if the notion was, Mason Rudolph was gonna be your starting quarterback, and we all agreed, it’s a major upgrade to go from Mason Rudolph to Aaron Rodgers, but the number hasn’t moved at all? For a coach that [has almost] never won less than nine games in a season. How does that number not go up at least a game, a game and a half?”
Carton does have a decent point here. While Aaron Rodgers didn’t strike fear into the hearts of opponents last year, the fact that Pittsburgh’s projected win total from the sportsbooks didn’t move up after his signing is peculiar. Rodgers at least finished the 2024 season on a high note, throwing for more than 250 yards in four of his last five games. Rudolph, on the other hand, won just one of the five games he started for the Tennessee Titans last year, and threw nine touchdown passes with nine interceptions in eight games. Even at the age of 41, Rodgers seems to be a clear upgrade.
Carton agrees, and he thinks Mike Tomlin will also save Pittsburgh from a losing season.
“And this is not going out on a limb. They’re always over .500,” Carton said. “So now you’re giving me free money to say, with an upgraded quarterback, they’re gonna be over .500? I’m gonna take the over, ’cause Mike Tomlin doesn’t win less than nine games in a season.”
It’s not the boldest take from Carton here. If you had bet on the Steelers to finish at least .500 every season, you’d have won money every year since 2003. Throughout turbulent times, especially in recent years, Tomlin has rallied his team to at least a .500 record every time.
However, if there was going to be a time for that streak to end, it could be this year due to the number of moving parts. Rodgers does feel like an upgrade. But he represents yet another new quarterback coming in to learn the system for one year. Pittsburgh also has a rookie in Kaleb Johnson, who could take over lead-back duties as the year progresses. DK Metcalf is the new first option at wide receiver without a lot of depth behind him. And Pittsburgh just shook up its defense up in a major way, replacing Minkah Fitzpatrick with Jalen Ramsey.
Pittsburgh’s schedule may pose some problems as well. It’s eerily similar to last season. The Steelers have an easier slate to start the year, of which they need to take advantage. The end of the year is a grueling stretch, similar to 2024.
Things were rolling for the Steelers before they got to those last four games. There’s a good chance they find themselves in a similar spot again this season. We’ll see if they improved enough to keep from falling apart over the final stretch of the year once again. Carton thinks the Steelers will surpass that win total, which should put them in the conversation.
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