Over the past couple of months, I have been revisiting Andrew Berry's first four draft classes with the Cleveland Browns to assess if he's good at it or not. To fully evaluate a draft pick or class, I believe they need at least three years of experience. Although the 2023 class was a year early, I included it anyway for this exercise. If you missed any of the in-depth reviews of past classes, you can find them at these links:
2020 Draft Revisit
2021 Draft Revisit
2022 Draft Revisit
2023 Draft Revisit
My main conclusion after reflecting on Berry's draft history is that he has gotten significantly better overall. He also was able to do that without having a first-round pick for three years (which is his fault, but that's a different conversation) after the trade for Deshaun Watson.
There were also a couple of trades that left him with just two second-round picks. Part of the perception that his draft history is bad is that he didn't have many high picks. Again, I realize that it is his fault for trading picks, but revisiting these drafts made me know they aren't as bad as some claim overall, though they are far from perfect.
Overall Hit Rates:
Round 1: 1/2 (50%)
Round 2: 2/2 (100%)
Round 3: 2/6* (33%) One Eval Incomplete (Cedric Tillman, who could easily turn into a hit)
Round 4: 2/6* (33%) One Eval Incomplete (Dawand Jones, who has shown flashes to be a hit)
Round 5: 3/7 (43%)
Round 6: 1/3 (33%) One Eval Incomplete (Luke Wypler)
Round 7: 0/2 (0%)
Total: 11/28 (39%)
I tried to find the average NFL GM hit rate in the draft and couldn't find much. However, according to a study by All Access Football, between the years 2012 and 2020, about 44% of NFL draft picks became contributors. According to this study Berry is close to league average overall and he’s shown improvement.
The first couple of drafts were rough, missing on a top 10 pick in 2020, paired with four selections in the top 100, and only hitting on one player isn't great, so the start of his tenure was rough draft-wise. Overall, I believe he has consistently achieved a decent level of success on day three of the draft.
However, a hit on day three doesn't necessarily mean the player is a star; they could just be a role player or contributor and be considered a hit due to their draft position. Day three picks are considered dart throws, and the expectation that they ever become meaningful players consistently should be low, so finding the level of success Berry has is good.