When it comes to sports gambling, the only thing more fun than betting on the outcome of games or full seasons, is betting on the future employment of the people involved in the games. What a world we live in, where we can bet real American currency on whether or not (and in this case, how quickly) someone will get a pink slip.
To that end, let’s unveil the 2025 odds, courtesy of sportsbetting.ag (which should really, for the purposes of this article, be called employmentbetting.ag), for the first head coach in the National Football League to be fired:
Brian Daboll (NYG) 4/1
Mike McDaniel (MIA) 5/1
Shane Steichen (IND) 6/1
Kevin Stefanski (CLE) 13/2
Jonathan Gannon (ARI) 7/1
Zac Taylor (CIN) 8/1
Dave Canales (CAR) 9/1
Brian Callahan (TEN) 10/1
Kyle Shanahan (SF) 16/1
Todd Bowles (TB) 22/1
Matt LaFleur (GB) 25/1
Mike Tomlin (PIT) 25/1
Sean McVay (LA) 25/1
Kevin O'Connell (MIN) 40/1
Raheem Morris (ATL) 40/1
Demeco Ryans (HOU) 50/1
Sean McDermott (BUF) 50/1
John Harbaugh (BAL) 66/1
Mike Macdonald (SEA) 66/1
Sean Payton (DEN) 66/1
Ben Johnson (CHI) 100/1
Brian Schottenheimer (DAL) 100/1
Dan Campbell (DET) 100/1
Dan Quinn (WAS) 100/1
Jim Harbaugh (LAC) 100/1
Aaron Glenn (NYJ) 150/1
Kellen Moore (NO) 150/1
Liam Coen (JAX) 150/1
Pete Carroll (LV) 200/1
Mike Vrabel (NE) 250/1
Andy Reid (KC) 500/1
Nick Sirianni (PHI) 500/1
Now keep in mind, this is not whether or not someone will eventually get fired during the season. This is betting on the FIRST one to be fired. So while there may be some undeniable hot seats for head coaches, for this exercise, you have to consider how likely a head coach is to get bounced EARLY in the season.
For context, here is the list of the first head coach fired for EACH of the last five seasons, along with their odds of attaining that status going into the season:
2020: BILL O’BRIEN, Houston Texans, +1100
2021: URBAN MEYER, Jacksonville Jaguars, +5000
2022: MATT RHULE, Carolina Panthers, +300
2023: FRANK REICH, Carolina Panthers, +5000
2024: ROBERT SALEH, New York Jets, +2000
A few things to note here before I give you my picks on which few I’d sprinkle some money on. First. Notice the only heavy favorite to get him was Rhule in 2022. Aside from that, the “winners” were somewhat substantially down the board, including Meyer and Reich, who were both fired in their first seasons with their respective teams.
Second, each of the winners came from situations that had some sort of strange circumstance. O’Brien was also the GM and was coming off a controversial offseason of trades and signings, largely bad ones. We could do a documentary on Meyer’s one season in Jacksonville, it was that weird, mostly due to Meyer himself. The two Panther firings were working for a psychotic owner, and Saleh got stabbed in the back by Aaron Rodgers.
Another thing to keep in mind, in picking the FIRST head coach fired, is it will likely need to be a head coach whose team is out of playoff contention well before the season is over. Most teams, even poorly coached teams, who are in the playoff hunt, won’t fire their head coach during pursuit of a playoff spot.
So, if I’m trying to come up with a few plays here, I’d go with these three:
BRIAN DABOLL, New York Giants, +400
It’s kind of a miracle that Daboll survived into 2025, despite being named Coach of the Year in 2022. The Giants are disaster, and they have two things working against Daboll. First, they have an owner who has publicly declared his lack of patience at this point. Second, the GM, Joe Schoen, is a conniving backstabber, who will happily plunge a dagger between the shoulder blades of Daboll, if the season starts slowly.
DAVE CANALES, Carolina Panthers, +900Canales works for Dave Tepper, the owner who fired Rhule and Reich. Need I say more?
RAHEEM MORRIS, Atlanta Falcons, +4000
If you’re looking for a value play, at 40 to 1, I like Morris, who is already seen as a retread head coach, so he is inherently disposable. Also, he is a defensive head coach, coaching a young starting quarterback, Michael Penix, Jr. If Penix struggles in his first season as the full time starter, Morris will be an easy scapegoat, and they begin the search early on an offensive minded head coach. Finally, the Falcons first six games include four playoff teams (including two conference title game participants, Washington and Buffalo), as well as the Niners, who were hit with injuries last year, and are now healthy again. The other game out of those six is a road division game (in Carolina), which are never easy.
For the record, DeMeco Ryans is 50 to 1 on this board, which I think is absurd. He should be at least 150 to 1, so if you feel like lighting money on fire, go ahead and lay a sawbuck down on him.
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