It’s go-time for the Minnesota Vikings. There was a time when a team breaking in a first-year starting quarterback wouldn’t have been expected to contend. But now? It’s almost a requirement.
The two winning formulas in the league are:
Have a game-breaking, Patrick Mahomes-type quarterback.
Go cheap with a quarterback on a rookie-scale deal and build around them.
With J.J. McCarthy, the Vikings are in the latter category until further notice.
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell understood the assignment. McCarthy’s salary allowed them to add major pieces on defense last spring (Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, Blake Cashman) and insulate McCarthy in the 2025 offseason (Will Fries, Ryan Kelly, Jordan Mason). The Vikings have a Voltron of a roster, complete with explosive weapons at wide receiver, tight end, and running back. All they need is for McCarthy to pilot it.
The expectation isn’t for him to just be competent, though. Minnesota just completed a 14-3 season, and their Super Bowl window is open. The Vikings must take a step to show that they’re serious contenders, and that’s going to require McCarthy to step up in his first year as a starter.
But what’s that level, exactly? Let’s look to the history books for an answer. Since 2015, there have only been three quarterbacks who’ve taken their team to a Conference Championship game or further as a first-year starter. Some of them were true rookies, while others, like McCarthy, spent a year mostly sitting out of action.
Regardless of their circumstances, though, all three established a baseline level of special that it takes to bring a team deep into the playoffs with minimal experience. Here are their stories.
2018, Patrick Mahomes
Stats*: 16 starts, 66% completion, 5,416 yards, 53 TD, 13 INT
(*Prorated to 17 games)
We should probably address the elephant in the room: No one’s matching this as a first-year starter.
Perhaps if you squint, you can see some similarities — Mahomes was also a 10th-overall pick who spent a year on the sidelines learning from an offensive genius in Andy Reid, entering a team with weapons like Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce…
But, no. No. No. Down. Bad. No.
Mahomes is such a singular talent that it’s hard to take away much from this season. Maybe the big lesson is that you don’t have to quite be Mahomes to have the team success he had as a first-year starter. Moving on.
2024, Jayden Daniels
Stats: 17 starts, 69% completion, 3,665 yards, 25 TD, 9 INT
Even when Mahomes isn’t the bare minimum for First-Year Greatness at QB, Daniels still sets a high bar.
Daniels was the X-factor that turned the 4-13 Washington Commanders into a 12-5 team that managed to shock the Detroit Lions on the road in the playoffs. Daniels worked quite a bit of magic on the ground (891 yards, 55 first downs, six touchdowns), but we can’t sleep on what he did with his arm. His 25-to-9 TD-to-INT ratio was almost an exact duplicate of Mahomes’ (26 to 11) and Jordan Love‘s (25 to 11) seasons. He finished fourth in the NFL in ESPN’s QBR, behind only Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow.
Even if we throw out the running stats entirely, McCarthy is already going to have to be a top-10 quarterback to make a push at Daniels’ passing stats from last year. He’s likely going to have to perform slightly better to close the gap. Being able to duplicate or exceed Sam Darnold‘s surprising mobility from last season (212 yards, 23 first downs, one touchdown) would also help even the score.
2022, Brock Purdy
Stats*: 5 starts, 68.3% completion, 3,707 yards, 37 touchdowns, 9 interceptions
(*Prorated to 17 games from December 4 onward)
Purdy might get the most comparables to McCarthy in this discussion, but it’s worth noting how different their situations were. McCarthy is a highly touted first-round pick, while Purdy was famously Mr. Irrelevant in 2022. McCarthy is a sophomore who has spent the last 15 months learning Kevin O’Connell’s offense, whereas the San Francisco 49ers thrust Purdy into action in Week 13 as a rookie. Purdy’s degree of difficulty was much higher.
That’s what makes Purdy’s run so mind-boggling. In that final six-game stretch for the 2022 49ers, he threw for multiple touchdowns in each contest. His pro-rated numbers over that span would have put him at 10th in yards and second(!!!) in touchdowns for the season.
We’re talking about top-10 numbers. But here’s where the comparisons between Purdy and McCarthy might become very apt: the supporting cast. Kyle Shanahan’s offense had Christian McCaffrey as their lead back, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle catching passes, and the fifth-best pass-blocking offensive line in the NFL, per PFF.
The Niners had the best running back in the world; the Vikings have Justin Jefferson. Minnesota also has Kevin O’Connell calling plays, and an explosive supporting cast featuring Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and Aaron Jones. They hope they have a top offensive line after their moves this offseason. Purdy had a crazy stat line, but he has the kind of pieces Purdy had with much more preparation.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the bare minimum is still absurdly high. McCarthy might not have to quite reach Sam Darnold’s 2024 season (4319 yards, 35 TD, 12 INT) to hit that Brock Purdy Baseline… but he’s not gonna have the grace to miss it by much.
It’s easy to say, Put in a rookie-scale quarterback and let the savings carry your team, but it’s much, much more difficult to actually put it into practice. Cheap or not, your quarterback still probably has to be special, at least to some degree, and that’s what Minnesota is banking on if they want a deep playoff run this year.