Let’s get one thing straight: DJ Moore didn’t suddenly forget how to play football in 2024. The man had 98 catches, for God’s sake. But instead of torching defenses like he did in 2023, he was catching four-yard outs like it was a goddamn job requirement. Why? Because the Bears’ offense was a dumpster fire with a rookie quarterback running for his life behind a line that couldn’t block a pop-up ad.
But 2025? It’s a whole new game.
2024: Quantity Over Quality
Moore’s 2024 stat line looks deceptively decent: 98 catches, 966 yards, 6 touchdowns. But don’t let the box score fool you — this was the football equivalent of empty calories. His yards per catch dropped to a pathetic 9.9, and his average depth of target (aDOT) was an insulting 7.5 yards, per RotoWire.com. That’s the kind of usage you give to a slot receiver on a team afraid to throw past the sticks.
And yet, Moore still managed to haul in 70% of his 140 targets, maintained a 24.4% target share (13th in the league), and proved his hands are as reliable as ever (RotoWire.com). In other words, he didn’t suck. The offense did.
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And that showed. Because Caleb Williams got sacked 68 freakin’ times. That’s not an offense — that’s a crime scene. Nobody’s stretching the field when your QB is face-down in the turf before the route hits the second break.
DJ Moore’s Career Performance Analysis from 2018-2024 (Yards, Receptions, TD’s, & Yards/Catch)
Enter Ben Johnson: Offensive Messiah
The Bears pulled off a miracle by hiring Ben Johnson. You want hope? Here’s your damn gospel. Johnson turned the Lions into a buzzsaw, leading the NFL with 33.2 points per game in 2024 (NFL.com). His offense was fast, lethal, and most importantly, smart.
Under Johnson, Detroit was second in total yards and passing yards (NFL.com). He took a fourth-round pick like Amon-Ra St. Brown and turned him into a monster. Now imagine what he can do with DJ Moore — a guy with better burst, contested catch ability, and YAC skills that’ve been criminally underused.
Johnson’s system thrives on quick reads, versatile receivers, and wide-zone blocking — all things that should unlock Moore’s full bag of tricks. Expect more motion, more mismatches, and most importantly, more room to run after the catch.
The Caleb Williams Leap
Don’t sleep on Caleb. His rookie year was rough — according to PFF, he threw for 3,541 yards, 20 TDs, and just 6 picks — but the improvement over the season was real. His TD-INT ratio ballooned to 18-2 over his final 14 games. That’s growth. That’s maturity. That’s what you want from a No. 1 pick.
And now he’s got a real offensive line. The Bears brought in Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, and Drew Dalman to shore up the interior, and PFF ranks this unit 4th going into 2025. That’s not just improvement — that’s a straight-up overhaul. Give Williams time, and you’ll start seeing those deep posts and sideline fades that Moore thrives on.
Advanced Metrics Still Love DJ
Reception Perception shows Moore still breaks ankles for fun. His success rate vs. man coverage? Still elite. His contested catch win rate? As reliable as ever. The only thing missing in 2024 was opportunity.
In 2023, Moore ranked 8th in YAC with 539 yards (PFF). In 2024, he was running glorified screens and curls because Williams barely had time to blink. Expect Johnson to fix that — and fast.
Also, let’s talk age. Moore turns 28 this year. That’s not old — that’s prime. According to apexfantasyleagues.com, they took a look at historical WR production curves, showing that 72.91% of peak seasons happen between 24 and 28. So unless the dude suddenly turned into an AARP member this offseason, we’re still looking at a guy smack in the middle of his prime.
Clear Path to WR1 Volume
Keenan Allen’s out. That’s 100+ targets up for grabs. Yes, they drafted Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland, and yes, Rome Odunze is a threat. But Moore’s chemistry with Williams is already built, and his experience makes him the alpha by default.
Johnson may even slide Moore into the slot more often — a role Amon-Ra St. Brown dominated in Detroit. That means cleaner releases, softer coverage, and more opportunities for YAC.
2025 Stat Projections
Metric 2024 Actual 2025 Projection Change
Targets 140 135 -5
Receptions 98 97 -1
Yards 966 1,241 +275
Touchdowns 6 7 +1
Yards/Catch 9.9 12.8 +2.9
aDOT 7.5 10.5 +3.0
Yeah, that’s WR1 territory. And for fantasy managers, that’s value city. Moore’s draft stock might be lower than it should be thanks to last year’s misfires, but don’t be the clown who fades him in the fourth round while he’s dropping 20 points a game.
What Could Go Wrong?
Sure, there’s risk. He’s 28. That’s when the cliff starts to creep up for some guys. The offense is filled with new pieces, and chemistry doesn’t happen overnight. And yeah, Odunze, Loveland, and Burden are going to demand targets.
But Moore’s got the track record, the trust, and the role. Unless Johnson completely screws the pooch (which his track record says he won’t), Moore is a safe bet to bounce the hell back.
Final Verdict
DJ Moore is not cooked. He’s not washed. He’s not fading. He’s just been underutilized by an offense that was still figuring out how to tie its shoes in 2024. With Ben Johnson calling plays, a retooled offensive line, and a QB on the rise, Moore is in a prime position to return to WR1 glory.
Ignore the box scores. Trust the context. Draft the bounce-back.