The Houston Texans have won the AFC South the past two years, so it's fair to say that they're the team to beat in the division in 2025. However, the Jacksonville Jaguars underwent an overhaul in the offseason and may have a legitimate chance to compete for the AFC South crown. Just recently, an NFL analyst laid out their path.
Garrett Podell of CBS Sports looked at the Jags' odds to win the division and argues that they can challenge Houston if Trevor Lawrence manages to stay healthy, a feat he hasn't achieved the past two years. Here's the skinny.
"The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-13 in 2024) were the last non-Texas team to win the AFC South in 2022, quarterback Trevor Lawrence's last fully healthy season," Podell wrote. "Across the past two years, he's dealt with a laundry list of injuries. Improved health for Lawrence in tandem with new coach Liam Coen coming over from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could get Jacksonville's offense back on track."
Later in his column, Podell writes that Jacksonville's odds to win the AFC South stand at +300 while the Texans' are +110. All things considered, it's not that wide a gap. Sure, Houston was the better team of the two in 2024, and their defense remains one of the best in the league. However, C.J. Stroud is coming off a somewhat underwhelming season and may not bounce back because the Texans failed to properly address their most glaring weakness on offense: The offensive line.
Although Houston did make an attempt to bolster the offensive trenches, the moves leave a bit to be desired. They signed left tackle Cam Robinson and offensive guard Laken Tomlinson. On top of that, they traded for Ed Ingram, but none of them truly moved the needle. Couple that with the fact that running back Joe Mixon is dealing with an injury that could potentially sideline him for an extended period of time, and Houston may have trouble getting the offense going.
Granted, the Texans signed running back Nick Chubb as insurance, but he's dealt with injuries of his own in recent years. Similarly, wide receiver Tank Dell could potentially miss time, so Nico Collins and Christian Kirk will need to carry the load.
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Trevor Lawrence can help the Jaguars take the AFC South away from the Texans
Leaving aside the state of the Houston Texans, the Jacksonville Jaguars have a promising offensive core in place that could help them compete for the division crown. The team's brass added Travis Hunter and Dyami Brown to a wide receiver corps that already included budding star Brian Thomas Jr. The trio of Bhaushul Tuten, Travis Etienne, and Tank Bigsby also gives them a crowded backfield.
If that wasn't enough, the Jags beefed up the offensive line in the offseason, so they'll be able to tote the rock, and pass protection won't be an issue. On defense, Arik Armstead returns to defensive tackle after mostly playing on the edge last year. He'll line up next to sophomore Maason Smith, who finished the 2024 season strong. Similarly, Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen give Jacksonville a pair of fearsome pass rushers.
But as Garrett Podell noted, the key to winning the AFC South will be Trevor Lawrence's health. It won't matter that the front office refurnished the roster the past few months if No. 16 cannot avoid the injury bug. If he goes down, their chances of seizing the division will decrease considerably.
Conversely, the Jaguars could become the team nobody wants to face in 2025 if Lawrence stays health.
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