There have been a lot of reasons for rekindled excitement in the Houston Texans over the last two seasons, and perhaps my favorite (or at least on my short list of favorites) has been the rise of wide receiver Nico Collins to the level of “elite pass catcher.”
Given the fact that Collins was drafted into the league in 2021 as part of just an abysmal Texans team, and is now a foundational piece for a team looking to make a Super Bowl run, it’s one of the best stories on this team. It was only enhanced by Collins’ securing a three year, $75 million contract extension last offseason. Collins is a fantastic player and great teammate.
The one glitch on his record right now is that he has never been able to stay fully healthy for an entire season. Collins was on his way to possibly leading the league in receiving yards in 2024, before a hamstring injury in Week 5 knocked him out for nearly two months. Still, he finished the season with over 1,000 yards, despite the missed time.
In fact, when Collins went out with his injury in Week 5, he was leading the league in receiving yards, and didn’t relinquish the lead for another two weeks. In other words, he spent a couple weeks on injured reserve STILL leading the league in receiving yards.
So undoubtedly, when the sports books in Vegas think that Nico Collins could lead the league in receiving yards this season, it’s everything I typed in the previous three paragraphs that factor into that. “Wait! What is that you say, Sean? Nico leading the league in receiving yards?!” Indeed! Check it out, courtesy of BetOnline, here are the odds on who will lead the NFL in receiving in 2025:
Ja’Marr Chase +450
Justin Jefferson +750
NICO COLLINS +750
Brian Thomas Jr. +1000
CeeDee Lamb +1000
Malik Nabers +1000
Puka Nacua +1400
Tyreek Hill +2000
A.J. Brown +2500
Amon-Ra St Brown +2500
Drake London +2500
Brandon Aiyuk +3300
Garrett Wilson +3300
Jaxon Smith-Njigba +3300
Davante Adams +4000
Tee Higgins +4000
Terry McLaurin +4000
Brock Bowers +5000
Chis Godwin +5000
D.J. Moore +5000
Ladd McConkey +5000
Marvin Harrison Jr +5000
Rashee Rice +5000
Stefon Diggs +5000
Chris Olave +6600
Courtland Sutton +6600
DeVonta Smith +6600
George Pickens +6600
Jameson Williams +7000
Zay Flowers +7000
Calvin Ridley +8000
Darnell Mooney +8000
DK Metcalf +8000
George Kittle +8000
Jaylen Waddle +8000
Jordan Addison +8000
Marquise Brown +8000
Tetairoa McMillan +8000
Yes, you are reading that correctly, Nico Collins is tied for SECOND on the odds board, with Justin Jefferson, at +750, to lead the NFL in receiving yards. Let’s break this down, and see if it’s worth betting on a.hometown hero like Nico Collins:
The biggest factors in Nico’s success will be health . . .
Throughout his career, Collins has dealt with a number of different injuries, most recently, the aforementioned hamstring injury which short circuited a possible record setting season in 2024. In his four seasons in the league, Collins has played a total of 51 out of a possible 68 games, and a few of those 51 games were very short stints, where he left the game in the first quarter. He will need a full 17 games to pay off on this bet.
. . . and the Texans’ offensive line
Collins will also need a fully healthy C.J. Stroud to deliver him the football, and that circles back to the Texans’ offensive line protecting Stroud in a far more competent fashion than they did in 2024. Last season, Stroud sustained 54 sacks and a 39 percent pressure rate. That’s a lot of hits and a lot of hurried throws. In order to have the offense functioning at a level to where Collins came win the receiving title, the offensive line needs to gel quickly.
Nico Collins is the unquestioned first option for C.J. StroudLast season, there was actually some question as to whom the first option was for Stroud in the passing game. A case should have been made for Stefon Diggs, or even Tank Dell, to lead the team in receiving yards, alongside Collins. This season, Collins is the unquestioned number one guy, with Christian Kirk as the veteran complement, and Jayden Higgins as the rookie Nico-clone. The dynamic is a lot like Andre Johnson’s peak years, when he led the league in receiving in 2008 and 2009.
The baton of “receiving yards leader” gets passed around quite a bitHere’s a fun fact — over the last nine seasons, nine different players have led the league in receiving yards:
2024 Ja'Marr Chase, 1,708 yards
2023 Tyreek Hill, 1,799 yards
2022 Justin Jefferson, 1,809 yards
2021 Cooper Kupp, 1,947 yards
2020 Stefon Diggs, 1,535 yards
2019 Michael Thomas, 1,725 yards
2018 Julio Jones, 1,677 yards
2017 Antonio Brown, 1,533 yards
2016 T.Y. Hilton, 1,448 yards
Guess what? None of them are named Nico Collins! That’s my final bit of analysis on this endeavor — it’s Nico’s time!
Listen to Sean Pendergast on SportsRadio 610 from 6 a.m. to 10 a.m. weekdays. Also, follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/SeanTPendergast, on Instagram at instagram.com/sean.pendergast, and like him on Facebook at facebook.com/SeanTPendergast.