It's not hyperbole to say that Trevor Lawrence is entering the most pivotal year of his career. While he hasn't been dreadful the past two years, he hasn't been great either. The Jacksonville Jaguars will need him to come through in 2025 if they want to compete for a playoff spot and maybe challenge the Houston Texans for the AFC South title. An NFL analyst doesn't think the former Clemson Tiger will pull it off, or at least won't be nearly as productive as others expect him to be.
Rich Hribar of Sharp Analysis put together a quarterback tier list based on their expected performance in 2025 and had Lawrence in the top-12-21 range. Here's some of his reasoning:
"The short of quick area passing game is going to rise for Lawrence under Coen. But even on throws shorter than 10 yards downfield, Lawrence only completed 69.4% of his attempts, which was 32nd in the league. The league average on those throws was 74.2%," Hribar wrote. "Lawrence has had issues preventing negative plays. He had a career-high 6% sack rate (16th) and a 2.5% interception rate (23rd). His 3.9% turnover-worthy throw rate ranked 35th per Pro Football Focus."
Hribar continued, "The Jaguars have the ingredients for explosive playmakers but are also counting on a lot of young players to ramp up production quickly in Coen's scheme."
This is more or less on par with several rankings that have him around the 15-20 range. The issue is that he will be stuck in neutral according to the projection, and that's not an outcome the Jags would be hyped up about.
Lawrence is expected to turn the corner after two injury-marred seasons. Although he struggled in his rookie season and early in 2022, he got hot and began to play like a top-10 quarterback in the second half of his sophomore campaign. He got off to a strong start to 2023, but injuries hampered his performance.
The former Clemson Tiger was supposed to bounce back last year but instead regressed even further due to the dearth of help he got and Doug Pederson's lack of involvement in his development. On the other hand, he wasn't as efficient as he was in 2022 or 2023. His mechanics were sluggish, and his decision-making left a bit to be desired.
Ultimately, Lawrence suffered an AC sprain that forced him to miss the second half of the 2024 season. He underwent surgery and is currently recovering.
2025 NFL Quarterback Tiers
based on expected performance in 2025
now, let's dive into all 38 QBs one-by-one: pic.twitter.com/nV0wKWl4CT
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) July 8, 2025
Related: The painful story of the worst season in Jaguars franchise history
Why the Jaguars are counting on Trevor Lawrence to bounce back in 2025
Now, you don't need a top 5 quarterback to make a deep playoff push, let alone make the Super Bowl. More often than not, a game manager who minimizes mistakes and gets the ball to his playmakers can get the job done. Bruck Purdy and Jalen Hurts are proof of it. The duo has taken the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles, respectively, to the championship game, with the latter winning it all.
That said, you need a signal-caller who can come up clutch at key times. Both Purdy and Hurts fit the bill. Lawrence needs to get there. He certainly has the talent but must stay healthy and build consistency. Working in his favor is that the Jags beefed up the offseason line and upgraded his arsenal of weapons. He will now have ample time to throw the ball and plenty of targets.
Couple that with the arrival of head coach Liam Coen, who helped Baker Mayfield post career numbers, and Lawrence is in a position to break out.
The bottom line is that it's hard to see Trevor Lawrence staying in the top 15-20 range in quarterback rankings in 2025 if he stays healthy. It will now be up to him to get the most out of his opportunity.
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