Aston Villa’s preparations for next season haven’t exactly been smooth sailing.
On the final day of last season, the Villans had a goal controversially ruled out and goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez sent off as they lost at Manchester United.
This meant Aston Villa missed out on a place in the Champions League, which is a huge blow for them from both a sporting and a financial perspective.
Then, earlier in July, Villa were fined around £9.5million by UEFA for breaking the governing body’s football earnings and squad cost rules.
There is also an added conditional fine as part of a settlement agreement with UEFA that covers a three-year period for Villa.
Failure to comply with this settlement could lead to a further penalty of £13million.
Finance expert Kieran Maguire has now spoken exclusively to TBR Football about what Villa fans now have to “brace themselves” for as a consequence of the settlement agreement.
A general view as the sides make their way out of the tunnel during the Premier League match between Aston Villa and Liverpool FC at Villa Park on May 13, 2024
Photo by Alex Pantling/Getty Images
Kieran Maguire predicts Aston Villa player departures and ticket prices ‘towards the upper end’
Maguire says there is no doubt that Villa are in for a tough time as they look to adhere to the settlement plan.
He believes the era of transfer sprees could be over, with a one in, one out approach likely to be adopted.
In addition, Maguire reckons Villa ticket prices will be towards the “upper end of the spectrum” despite a lack of Champions League football.
“This is going to be tough for Villa and there’s no doubt about that,” Maguire exclusively told TBR Football.
“They have got to look at as many revenue streams as possible to drive growth.
“They won’t have Champions League football next season but I still expect prices to be towards the upper end of the spectrum as far as tickets are concerned.
“The other issue they have to consider is that they have been heavy investors with buying players in recent years.
“I think from now on, you will see more of a one in, one out approach.
“The sales they have made in the last 12 months have been impressive and brought in substantial profits, so they aren’t quite in as bad a position as some people have made out.
“However, Villa fans have got to brace themselves that some players will be leaving as well as joining.”
READ MORE: How much money Aston Villa could lose out on by missing out on Champions League as ‘greatest need’ claim made
What could happen if Aston Villa don’t adhere to UEFA settlement plan
TBR Football’s financial expert Adam Williams previously explained in detail why Villa were fined by UEFA, why the sale of their women’s team doesn’t work for FFP, and what could happen if the Villans breach the settlement plan.
“If they breach the terms of that settlement – either by a set amount of a year-by-year basis or at all after the end of the settlement term – then Villa could be kicked out of the next European competition they qualify for thereafter,” Williams wrote.
“On top of that, they could be hit with the rest of the suspended fine, which in Villa’s case is about £13million in addition to the unconditional £4.5million or so. That penalty is for breaching the Football Earnings rule.
“It’s a bit more complex than the Premier League equivalent, but you’re allowed to lose up to £75million over a rolling three-year period if you’re deemed to be in good financial health.
“Significantly, you can’t get around UEFA’s system with the sale of the women’s team or other PSR sleights of hand such as the quasi-swap deals we’ve seen at Villa involving the likes of Omari Kellyman and Tim Ireogbunam.
“As well as that element, Villa have also broken UEFA’s Squad Cost Control rule for 2024.
“With this rule, which the Premier League are considering introducing their own slightly watered-down version, Villa weren’t allowed to spend more than 80 per cent of their turnover plus the profit they made on player sales on wages, transfers and agents’ fees involving their first-team setup. The fine here was just over £5million.
“There are no sanctions in terms of being kicked out of European competition for now, but that could change if Villa breach the terms of the settlement.”