After a promising, albeit unspectacular 2024 campaign, the Green Bay Packers are relying on their young core to take a major leap this fall. That much was made clear by general manager Brian Gutekunst, who both called for “urgency” in his exit presser after January’s Wild Card loss in Philadelphia and made free-agent moves that fell short of that characterization.
The additions of guard Aaron Banks and veteran slot man Nate Hobbs reflect a commitment to Matt LaFleur and Josh Jacobs’ run game, as well as a Band-Aid solution at cornerback.
The rallying cry heading into the offseason came from none other than Jacobs himself, who rushed for 1,329 yards and 15 touchdowns in his first season with the team. He bluntly stated, “I would say, you know, I think we need another D-end. I think we need another DB. And I think we need a wide receiver. … We need a guy that’s proven to be a No. 1.”
Gutekunst flatly stated that that type of campaigning from his players “[didn’t] really move the needle for me.” Despite financial flexibility and countless rumors about what household names might join the promising young Packers, the front office has largely opted to run it back.
That thrusts certain players into significant roles. Carrington Valentine and Keisean Nixon are near the top of that list, for obvious reasons. Rather than adding that DB that Jacobs was talking about, they got rid of their franchise corner Jaire Alexander, whose availability and production no longer matched his salary. Additionally, there’s Lukas Van Ness, the recent first-round pick who will be asked to do a lot at a thin premium position that underperformed in 2024.
Then there’s a guy whose potential leaps off the screen every time the ball is in his hands.
Jayden Reed.
Gutekunst didn’t get a proven top receiver, but he spent a premium Day 1 draft pick to land Matthew Golden. The Texas product likely steps into part of Christian Watson’s vacated field-stretching role, as well as Romeo Doubs’ outside-the-numbers routes.
Following the addition of Golden, Reed’s agent had an overpublicized meeting with Gutekunst to clarify his long-term role in the offense. The graphic from ESPN’s Adam Schefter was a bit much, but Reed’s body of work speaks for itself. He is the clear front-runner amongst the young quartet of himself, Watson, Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks to receive a second contract, and he may be the only one at this point.
What jumps off Reed’s game log is a lack of consistency. In Week 1, the world watched him touch the ball seven times for 171 yards and two scores in a South American barn-burner against the team that would eventually eliminate the Packers. In Week 14, the world watched him record zero receptions for zero yards in a pivotal Thursday night divisional tilt in Detroit. The advanced metrics tell a very clear story about that.
It’s not a talent issue.
Reed won 67% of his go routes, 82% of his post routes, and 73% of his corner routes, according to Reception Perception with Matt Harmon and James Koh. Those are eye-popping numbers that paint a clear picture of a receiver who wins downfield.
However, Reed’s role in LaFleur’s offense treats him like a diet Deebo Samuel, and one who only plays 50 to 60% of snaps. He is used in the motion game, screen game, jet-sweep game, and misdirection game in addition to his downfield route tree. All of that is spectacular, but the inputs are telling us he can produce more field-flipping plays and, more importantly, more week-to-week consistency.
In the fantasy and sports gaming community, Green Bay’s receiving corps has become known as a quagmire of average to above-average guys who take turns in frustratingly unpredictable fashion. However, Reed’s metrics suggest that it doesn’t have to be this way. Watson’s absence leaves a plethora of go and post routes up for grabs in a run-heavy offense that sets them up well, and an audacious quarterback with a big arm. LaFleur has become one of the best in the game schematically, and Jacobs’s dominance is a spectacular feather in his cap.
Looking forward, as Golden develops into the talent the Packers hope he can be, I’d love to see them lean on Reed a bit harder this season. That doesn’t mean do away with the window dressing and line him up at the X, it means giving your offense’s big-play creator the downfield volume and scheme that his eye-popping metrics have earned him.