The 2025 NFL season is still a few months away, but the arrival of training camp generates excitement among all 32 clubs and their fan bases. Every year, we see breakout NFL teams, as we did in 2024 with the Washington Commanders and Denver Broncos. However, a few teams take a significant step back each year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars experienced a five-win dip last season, while the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers went from clubs with double-digit wins to a combined 13 victories. Regression is inescapable for a few teams every year, and we’re highlighting several that could see a multi-game drop-off from 2024 to 2025.
Let’s dive into our list of the five NFL teams that are likeliest to regress this upcoming season.
Seattle Seahawks
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The Seattle Seahawks downgraded at quarterback this offseason with the move from Geno Smith to Sam Darnold. They also thrust Darnold into an uncomfortable situation, asking him to overcome his issues when pressured while playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. It’s a recipe for disaster. It’s more likely that Seattle gets the quarterback who posted a 78.3 QB rating with a 63-56 TD-INT ratio in his first 56 games than the MVP-caliber quarterback who compiled a 106.4 QB rating and a 35-12 TD-INT line in his first 16 games with the Minnesota Vikings last year. The Seahawks don’t have the infrastructure to help Darnold perform anywhere close to the level we saw in 2024. With inferior quarterback play, a 10-7 team last year will win no more than seven games this fall.
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Kansas City Chiefs
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Listing the Kansas City Chiefs among the NFL teams most likely to regress next season is primarily based on their win total. A 15-win club in 2024, Kansas City finished 11th in point differential (+59), just ahead of the nine-win Cincinnati Bengals. In 2025, the Chiefs have the sixth-hardest projected schedule in the NFL, with matchups against the Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, Washington Commanders, and Houston Texans. On top of that, the AFC West is stronger than it has been in years. The Chiefs might only be an 11-win team this season—a four-game drop—but that would match their win total from 2023, when they went on to win the Super Bowl.
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Washington Commanders
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Led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels playing at an MVP-like level, the Washington Commanders were the breakout team of the 2024 NFL season. The front office responded to a playoff run to the NFC Championship Game by surrounding Daniels with more offensive help. However, Washington is still a prime candidate for regression this fall. For one, last year’s 87 percent fourth-down conversion rate (20-for-23) is unsustainable. There was also some extreme fortune in a few victories, with the Commanders benefiting from facing clubs with injured quarterbacks. Washington will still be a playoff contender this upcoming season, but it will be much closer to a 9-8 team than a 12-5 club.
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Pittsburgh Steelers
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The Pittsburgh Steelers are taking an all-in approach this season, demonstrated by the acquisitions of Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Rodgers. Adding a pair of All-Pro talents and swapping out George Pickens for DK Metcalf would suggest Pittsburgh could be even better in 2025. We’re a bit more skeptical. In his age-40 season, Rodgers was one of the worst quarterbacks in football when pressured, and he lost some of his effectiveness throwing deep.
Pittsburgh’s offensive tackle situation is a real area of concern, and Metcalf’s tendency to freelance is a poor fit with Rodgers’ strong preference for his receivers to run the routes he wants. There are even reasons to wonder if Father Time is starting to catch up to a Steelers defense featuring T.J. Watt (age 31), Cam Heyward (36), Darius Slay (34), Juan Thornhill (30), and Ramsey (31). There are enough concerns to believe Mike Tomlin’s streak of 18 consecutive seasons without a losing record will end this year.
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Detroit Lions
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Similar to the Kansas City Chiefs, the Detroit Lions are a candidate for regression purely based on win total. Detroit dominated the regular season last year, delivering a 15-2 record with by far the highest point differential (+222) in the NFL. Unfortunately, this offseason saw the club lose both of its renowned play-callers, and the interior offensive line was overhauled. If all of that weren’t enough to project some regression, Detroit also has one of the toughest schedules in football this season. In a more competitive NFC North, there’s a real chance Detroit is a 12- or 11-win team this fall. Even if that happens, though, the Lions remain a legitimate Super Bowl contender, and playoff success is all that matters to the organization at this point.
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NFL, MLB & college football writer for Sportsnaut. Graduated from San Diego State University with BA in Journalism, 2019. ... More about Matt Johnson