Olivia Smith will become the first £1 million player in the women’s game when she joins Arsenal from Liverpool, but what does the data say about the Canadian’s meteoric rise?
With the European transfer market now open, Women’s Super League clubs have been some of the first to get their business done.
After Chelsea set a world record for the women’s game with the £900,000 signing of Naomi Girma in January, Arsenal have raised the bar this window.
The reigning European champions are set to break the global transfer record for Liverpool forward Olivia Smith.
According to widespread reports, the deal will make Smith the first £1 million footballer in the women’s game. But what is it that makes the 20-year-old special?
Smith’s Breakout Season
Canada international Smith was one of the brightest stars in the WSL last season, turning heads across the league.
Smith scored seven goals in her maiden campaign after arriving from Sporting CP. No other Liverpool player netted more than three times in the WSL last term; in fact, across Europe’s big five leagues in 2024-25, only two players aged 20 or under scored more goals than Smith – Vicky López (10) and Cora Zicai (eight).
Becoming the Reds’ attacking totem, Smith outperformed her team-high 4.4 expected goals (xG) by 2.6, giving her the best xG overperformance of any player in the Liverpool squad.
Smith also led Liverpool for touches in the opposition’s box (92) and shots (50), recording a 14% shot conversion rate. Only four players in the WSL attempted more shots: Khadija Shaw (52), Frida Maanum (57), Elisabeth Terland (65) and Alessia Russo (73).
But Arsenal will get more than goals from their record-breaking outlay, with the Gunners drawn to Smith due to her enormous potential.
Across the league, Smith was the youngest player to score more than three goals in 2024-25. Among all players born in 2004 or later, Smith played the most minutes in the WSL (1,578) and also had the most shots (50) and shots on target (16).
Her trickery makes her difficult to dispossess fairly, with only Viviane Asseyi (51) winning more fouls than Smith’s 46. The 20-year-old did win the most in the final third of the pitch, with 14.
Her propensity for winning fouls in dangerous areas could be a major plus for the Gunners, whose six goals assisted from set-pieces was the joint most in the WSL last term (alongside Chelsea).
While Smith was heavily involved in Liverpool’s attacking moves last season, the majority of them only saw her take the shot.
Of all WSL players to play 800+ minutes last season, just three saw a greater proportion of their sequence involvements come when they were solely responsible for taking the shot at the end of the move – Terland (17.3%), Shaw (14.6%) and new teammate Russo (10.4%).
That is not to say she didn’t work hard off the ball, though. Smith topped all strikers or forwards in two telling metrics.
Shot-ending possession starts tell us how many times a player regains possession from an opponent (via a tackle, interception etc) to start a shot-ending passing sequence. Smith recorded the most of any forward in the WSL last campaign (7).
Shot-ending sequence starts, meanwhile, take into account loose balls, as the player starting the sequence does not have to actively recover possession from the opponent. Smith also led the way in this category (19).
It is also quite clear from last season’s evidence that she’s one of the most exciting ball carriers in the WSL.
In 2024-25, only Russo (21) recorded more shot-ending carries than Smith in the WSL (20), while she also ranked fifth for progressive ball carries among all forwards and wingers.
She is also one of the best players in one-v-one battles, recording the ninth-most take-ons (61) in the WSL last season and the second-most successful take-ons (35). Of the 10 most-prolific players for take-ons, she had the best success rate at 57.4%.
How Smith Compares to WSL Greats
When comparing Smith’s debut campaign in the WSL to other big-name forwards to have graced the league, her immediate impact stands out.
Smith’s seven goals in her first WSL season compares favourably to the returns of Mayra Ramírez (four goals in 2024-25), Russo (three in 2020-21) and even the competition’s all-time leading scorer, Vivianne Miedema (four in 2017-18), in their first campaigns.
City striker Shaw (nine goals) outscored her in 2021-22, and Chelsea’s Sam Kerr (21 in her first full season in 2020-21, as 2019-20 was ended prematurely by the COVID-19 pandemic) are among those to have bettered Smith’s debut-season numbers.
Kerr’s incredible debut season in the WSL will be difficult for anyone to top, but Smith did also beat Terland (14), Shaw (nine), Russo (five) and Miedema (10) for chances created (15) in her maiden campaign.
So, Smith looks ready for the big time, having brought deadly finishing, one-on-one ability and off-ball intelligence to Liverpool. But how does she rank against other top European talents?
Crowded at the Top: Arsenal’s Battle for Places
While Smith’s move appears a no-brainer, it will give Arsenal boss Renée Slegers a dilemma when it comes to selecting her forward line.
Smith is capable of operating across the frontline, having played 62% of her WSL minutes as a central striker last season. She played 37% on the right flank and 1% on the left.
To challenge Chelsea, who have won the WSL title six years in a row, Arsenal know they need two world-class players for each position. Defending their UEFA Women’s Champions League crown will also further stretch the Gunners’ resources.
Arsenal have also made their loan deal for Chloe Kelly permanent after she impressed in the latter stages of the season, recording two goals and five assists in all competitions.
Liverpool’s 22 goals last season was the third fewest in the WSL, while Arsenal were the division’s most-prolific side with 62 goals scored.
Smith will be moving from one of the worst attacking teams in the WSL to the best – they also play very differently, with Arsenal averaging 62.2% possession last season and compared to Liverpool’s 47.2%.
WSL Team Styles 2024-25
It’ll be interesting to see where Slegers deploys her new signing, but Smith proved she’s versatile and dangerous in both right and central positions at Liverpool in 2024-25.
If played through the middle, the Canadian might see a lot more of the ball in dangerous areas at her new club. Smith received 8.5% of her passes inside the penalty area last season, but that figure was dwarfed by a couple of her new teammates, Russo (17.6%) Stina Blackstenius (25.7%).
Smith should benefit from greater service, too, with Arsenal having created chances worth 47.6 xG last season, compared to Liverpool’s 25.4. Arsenal also led the league for shots on target with 156 for the season, which was nearly double Liverpool’s tally (87).
Smith may not find it easy to nail down a starting spot with competition from Russo and Blackstenius, and Arsenal have plenty more options in the wide areas.
However, the Canadian clearly has the potential to go right to the top, and Arsenal will be confident she can repay her historic price tag.
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