Will Bo Nix’s numbers improve in Year Two? What past QBs’ data can tell us
For Bo Nix, it is the question that defines him and the Broncos’ outlook heading into the 2025 season: Will he be able to improve off of his rookie season, and if so, how much?
Broncos Country assumes he will get better; that’s the natural order of things for a young quarterback, right?
Certainly, Bo Nix likes where he stands — in part because he doesn’t have to think about certain aspects of play that he had to last season, a point he made during OTAs.
His footwork, getting the play call out in the huddle — these were elements of which he needed to be mindful last season, which diluted his focus. By May, he didn’t have to think about them; they had become habit, so he could focus on reading the opposing defense.
That alone should make him better, and by the second half of last season, he already appeared to be well on his way in those areas.
Nevertheless, growth for a young quarterback is rarely on a straight incline.
A storyline of last season was the play of Houston’s C.J. Stroud, who guided the Texans back to the postseason, but struggled through much of the campaign, dogged by questions as he fell from 12th to 28th in EPA/play as his performance slumped in late October through December.
By the end of the season, Stroud’s passer rating dropped by 13.8 points from 2023. Among 51 quarterbacks since 1980 who started at least 10 games as a rookie and attempted at least 250 passes, that was the fourth-largest drop-off since 1980.
Just 10 of those 51 quarterbacks saw their ratings decline from their rookie seasons.
For the full group of 51 quarterbacks, the average year-to-year difference was plus-5.6 points. If Bo Nix bumped his passer rating up by that much, he’d finish with a 98.9 rating; that would have taken him from 18th to 12th in last year’s rankings.
But for the 13 quarterbacks whose teams went to the postseason as rookies, the average Year 1 to Year 2 difference was plus-0.7. Such a bump would take Nix to a 94.0 rating, good to bring him from 18th to 15th in the league rankings.
Eight of the 13 playoff-bound rookies since 1980 saw their ratings improve in Year Two. Thirty-three of 38 who missed the playoffs went up in the second year.
So, there’s less room to rise if you go to the postseason as a rookie, as Bo Nix did.
A second-year decline augured poorly for then-Patriots quarterback Mac Jones in 2022. But it wasn’t a harbinger of failure for Atlanta’s Matt Ryan in 2009 or Dallas’ Dak Prescott in 2017.
But there’s something significant working in Bo Nix’s favor — which perhaps makes it possible that he has a Year Two jump like that of Cleveland’s Bernie Kosar in 1986 (plus-14.5 points, to the AFC Championship Game):
BO NIX WILL HAVE BETTER PASS CATCHERS AROUND HIM
In Bo Nix’s favor is a young corps of pass-catchers that absorbed just one loss of note: Lil’Jordan Humphrey to the New York Giants.
All other key components returned, along with the additions of third-round pick Pat Bryant and free-agent tight end Evan Engram, brought aboard as Sean Payton’s deeply-desired, long-discussed “joker” pass-catching target.
“I know we’re searching for the joker,” Broncos general manager George Paton said at the Scouting Combine in February. “It’s kind of like the Loch Ness monster trying to find a god dang joker.
“But I’ve played Sean’s teams that had them — and they’re hell.”
So, with Payton’s offense having the component it’s lacked in the last two years, and the potential for at least one of the returning, recently drafted young receivers — Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims Jr. and Devaughn Vele — to improve, Bo Nix should have a superior complement at his disposal.
Payton hasn’t had the collection of weapons he’s wanted, largely because cap and draft-capital resources went elsewhere.
Tight end wasn’t addressed in the previous two years; the initial optimism of getting Greg Dulcich up to speed as a potential “joker” lasted only as long as his hamstring held up — which wasn’t even half of a game in 2023.
BUT IF NIX IS INJURED …
The success of the contingency plan will come down to just how much Jarrett Stidham’s experience in Payton’s scheme translates to success.
Stidham’s performance in two starts at the conclusion of the 2023 season was a mixed bag; it wasn’t enough to engender external confidence heading into a quarterback competition that encompassed the 2024 offseason.
But the Broncos are counting on familiarity with the scheme being the difference if Stidham is called upon in 2025. That went into the team’s decision to re-sign him on a two-year deal in March.
Behind Stidham is Sam Ehlinger, a March 31 addition. A starter for three games with the Colts in 2023, he got a chance to audition for the Broncos while still with Indianapolis in last year’s preseason opener.
The primary question on Ehlinger could be whether the Broncos can sneak him through to the practice squad as their No. 3 quarterback or not. They might need that roster spot at some other positions that appear crowded.
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