gophnx.com

What if the Suns had drafted Luka Doncic?

Upgrade Your Fandom

Join the Ultimate Phoenix Suns Community for just $48 in your first year!

Gerald Bourguet Avatar

For the first time in their 50-year history as a franchise, the Phoenix Suns held the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 NBA Draft. And by taking Deandre Ayton over Luka Doncic, they became the living embodiment of “this is why we can’t have nice things.”

It’s a phrase that might as well be the tagline for Arizona sports in general, but this one cut especially deep. Considering where they were drafting and the importance of that pick; considering Ayton’s Suns tenure lasted five seasons and how Luka Doncic seems destined to become an all-time great; and considering the fact that Phoenix had to wait FIFTY YEARS after the curse of the Kareem Abdul-Jabbar coin toss to finally win the only first overall pick in franchise history, make no mistake: Drafting DA over Luka was the worst draft mistake Phoenix ever made.

Yes, worse than taking Jalen Smith over Tyrese Haliburton, since he was only the 10th pick. And yes, worse than draft busts like Josh Jackson, Dragan Bender, Marquese Chriss or Alex Len. It was even worse than all those years Robert Sarver sold off draft picks for cash! The Suns had a chance to pair a top-five NBA superstar with Devin Armani Booker for the long-term, and they totally blew it.

For some, the mistake was clear on draft night. Here was a kid who was winning EuroLeague title and MVPs overseas as a teenager, and instead of that guy, the Suns took the chiseled big man from the local school who got played off the floor in the NCAA Tournament by a small-ball Buffalo team and came with questions about his focus and motor. Ayton was a promising youngster, to be sure, but those who did their homework and watched Doncic’s tape — against superior competition — understood this transcendent prospect had the highest ceiling and floor.

But the Suns picked Ayton, and we all know what happened next. To be fair, it took some time for the severity of this mistake to reveal itself. After all, for all of DA’s inconsistencies over his first few seasons, everything did snap into place during that magical 2021 NBA Finals run.

Months earlier, he had been getting benched for Dario Saric late in games. Fast-forward to the playoffs, and Phoenix got the exact version of DA that they needed: the one who was actually “Dominayton” his role by doing the little things. He set good screens and rolled with intention (just ask Michael Porter Jr.). He served as the defensive anchor, protecting the rim and being mobile on the perimeter. He ran the floor, established deep position on his paint touches and was automatic finishing around the basket.

And who could forget one of the greatest playoff moments in Suns playoff history, the Valley-Oop?

But as great as those moments were, and as close as the Suns came to finally reaching the mountaintop, they ultimately fell short. A championship would’ve absolved them of their decision to pass on Luka Doncic, but only to a certain degree.

Take this loose comparison I made on draft night to try and explain what the best-case scenario would’ve looked like: When the Houston Rockets took Hakeem Olajuwon first overall in the 1984 NBA Draft over Michael Jordan, they technically made the “wrong” pick, in terms of selecting the best player to come out of that draft class. But the moment they won a championship with Hakeem as a centerpiece, they were vindicated in that decision.

It became clear early on that Luka Doncic was going to be the better player from the 2018 NBA Draft class, but the Suns would’ve gotten a pass for taking the “wrong” player if Ayton helped this franchise finally win its first championship.

Unfortunately, that hopeful comparison never manifested. Not only did the Suns fail to win a championship with DA, but it’s also worth mentioning that Olajuwon was also a two-time champion, two-time Finals MVP, regular-season MVP, 12-time All-Star, 12-time All-NBA selection, five-time Defensive Player of the Year, two-time league leader in rebounds, and three-time league leader in blocked shots. Deandre Ayton has…not a single one of those accolades to his name after seven years in the league.

In fact, by the end of his fifth season in the Valley, the team that drafted him first overall was aggressively shopping him and coming up short on interested suitors. Phoenix ultimately settled for the underwhelming return of Jusuf Nurkic and Grayson Allen as part of a larger Damian Lillard trade, and Ayton spent two seasons in Portland before they gave up on him, drafted multiple centers to replace him, and ultimately bought him out.

But what if the Suns hadn’t used their No. 1 pick on a guy who said his main goal was simply making it to his second NBA contract? What if they had taken the Slovenian phenom who now has five All-Star appearances, five All-NBA selections and one scoring title on his resume through his first seven seasons?

What the Suns could’ve looked like with Luka Doncic

There’s a contingent of Suns fans who believe Booker and Luka wouldn’t have co-existed, or that Book wouldn’t have become Book if he had been playing next to a ball-dominant guard like Doncic. Respectfully, that viewpoint is a coping mechanism called “denial.”

Pairing Doncic with Booker in their early 20s would’ve given Phoenix an absolutely dynamic backcourt for the foreseeable future, and it’s ironic to hear people now clamoring for a point guard to put Booker back in his “natural” position at the 2-guard spot when they could’ve had that guy for a decade. Those two had way too much talent, basketball IQ, drive and compatible skill-sets for it to have not worked out (on offense, at least). Frankly, the idea that Booker wouldn’t have developed into the same player is insulting to his work ethic.

Picture the Dallas Mavericks’ run to the 2024 NBA Finals. Now picture at least 3-5 of years of a similar roster build, only with Devin Booker in Kyrie Irving’s place. Sure, that magical 2021 Finals run would’ve never happened. But it’s tantalizing to think about how many titles the Suns could have contended for with a team built around Luka Doncic, Devin Booker and Mikal Bridges, who was selected 10th in that same draft.

Drafting Luka Doncic over DA, Jaren Jackson Jr., Wendell Carter Jr. or Mo Bamba (remember how he was considered a top prospect in that same class that year?) would’ve left Phoenix with a gaping hole at center in 2018, but there was another option available. In another universe, the Suns could’ve drafted Doncic as Booker’s backcourt partner, snagged a two-way wing like Bridges at No. 10…and then used their available cap space to replace the aging Tyson Chandler with a 24-year-old Clint Capela.

Remember, Capela was a restricted free agent with the Houston Rockets that summer, and while he ultimately re-signed on a five-year, $90 million contract, there were reports that he and Houston were far apart on a deal for most of the summer. Capela was reportedly unhappy with the Rockets’ offers and didn’t sign his new deal — which was for less than his expected market value — until four weeks into free agency. It felt pretty clear Houston was low-balling their big man, and a bigger offer might’ve forced them to seriously consider letting him walk.

So what if the Suns had been that team to apply pressure, using their cap space on a Capela offer sheet instead of those disastrous Trevor Ariza and Ryan Anderson signings?

Maybe the Rockets would’ve just made the decision to bite the bullet and match an outside offer for Capela, much like the Suns would do years later when Ayton signed an offer sheet with the Indiana Pacers. But since we’re dreaming about a world where Phoenix landed Luka Doncic, we’re going to assume Houston balks and the Suns land an in-his-prime rim-runner and shot-blocker.

Capela averaged 16.6 points, 12.7 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game during Doncic’s rookie year. Just imagine the numbers he could’ve put up over the years if he had pick-and-roll partners like Luka Doncic and Devin Booker throwing him lobs! Think about how Capela and Mikal Bridges could’ve covered for some of the backcourt’s defensive flaws! And consider that even if Phoenix had finished with a better record in 2018-19 and therefore gotten a worse draft pick, they still could’ve drafted Cam Johnson in 2019, since the Suns traded down from No. 6 to No. 11 to select him. The same goes for Phoenix’s draft-night trades for Dario Saric and Aron Baynes.

Maybe the Suns never sign Ricky Rubio in the 2019 offseason with Doncic at the helm, and maybe they never trade for Kelly Oubre Jr. during the 2018-19 season, since they would have never signed Trevor Ariza to trade for Oubre. That probably means Chris Paul never plays in the Valley, since Rubio and Oubre were the ones traded for the Point God. The entire NBA Bubble probably looks different, since the underdog Suns who went 8-0 against all the odds might not have looked the same. Maybe Cam Payne never becomes “The Haboob”!

But locking in a starting five of Luka Doncic, Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson and Clint Capela, all under the age of 24, is tantalizing to think about. And even if the Suns failed in using the money they spent on Ricky Rubio to immediately supplement their bench of Saric, Baynes, Jevon Carter, Ty Jerome and Frank Kaminsky, they still would’ve had a terrific starting point for the next decade between Doncic and Booker. We’re talking multiple cracks at assembling championship-caliber teams.

Instead, they got one unforgettable Finals run, an undeniably memorable 64-win season…and a whole lot of playoff heartbreak, disappointment, roster dismantling and DA disappointment. Even their best season in franchise history, when they felt destined to finally win it all, was ultimately ended in the second round by none other than…Luka Doncic.

Not all of the blame here can be placed on Ayton, and he’s far from a bust. But even bearing all that in mind, he’s still the greatest draft misfire in Suns history, simply because of how great Luka Doncic already is and what could have been. By not selecting Doncic over the guy who didn’t even make it through his second NBA contract, Phoenix deprived themselves of multiple chances to compete for titles.

And of course it all happened the first and only time the Suns ever got the No. 1 overall pick.