The Minnesota Vikings have experienced considerable success during the Kevin O’Connell era, and one of the primary reasons has been the arrival of Jordan Addison. Justin Jefferson gets all the headlines as the best receiver in the NFL — and deservedly so — but Addison may have been the piece that put it all together.
Minnesota drafted Addison in 2023, and he has had a strong start to his career. The first-round receiver out of USC has caught 133 passes for 1,786 yards and 19 touchdowns over his first two seasons. While fans have enjoyed his production on the field, there have been some speed bumps off it, including what Addison’s next contract will look like.
The price of receivers has skyrocketed. WR has become a premium position when teams plan out their roster. Secondary receivers that used to be had for a bargain are now securing contracts in excess of $30 million, and it probably hasn’t been lost on a player who told his general manager, “Let’s go get paid” on draft night.
That has made projecting Addison’s next contract a risky proposition. However, we got a glimpse on Monday afternoon, and it may not bode well for his long-term future in Minnesota.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported on Monday that the New York Jets have agreed to a four-year, $131 million contract with wide receiver Garrett Wilson. The deal includes $90 million in guaranteed money and locks him in through the 2030 season.
A Vikings fan’s first reaction to this deal may be to chuckle as they envision Jefferson politely walking into Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s office and reminding them he’s not Garrett Wilson while asking for a new contract. But while Wilson’s contract may make Jefferson’s deal look like a bargain, it has more of an effect on Addison’s future.
Wilson has developed into the top target for the Jets after being selected with the 10th-overall pick in the 2022 draft. Despite constant turmoil and a quarterback carousel that has included Tim Boyle, Mike White, and a washed Aaron Rodgers, he’s posted three-straight 1,000-yard campaigns.
However, the interesting part isn’t that Wilson got the money. It’s when he got it. Schefter noted that Wilson became the first receiver to earn an average of over $31 million after playing just three seasons in the NFL, and the $32.75 million price tag is something that should have Addision seeing dollar signs.
The Vikings can try to kick this down the road, but Wilson’s contract opens a can of worms. If Addison has a big year and gets 1,000 yards, he’ll have a valid claim for opening discussions for a new contract. That’s especially true this season. Addison could miss games due to a potential suspension for a July 2024 DWI arrest, which would result in reduced playing time and potentially impact any production.
But there’s also danger if Minnesota stalls. If Addison turns in a pair of 1,000-yard seasons, his asking price could push toward the $40 million number after the 2026 season. While the Vikings have a fifth-year option as a holding point, teams typically don’t let negotiations reach that point if they want to keep the player for the long term.
That’s where things get tricky. Jefferson is happy now, but could ask for a renegotiation as top receivers soar past his annual average value of $35 million. While the Vikings have done a great job locking up talent, more players will likely ask for a raise.
However, that’s a good problem to have. It means that Dallas Turner and J.J. McCarthy will be worth the investment the Vikings have put into them. But it also means that Addison could be priced out of Minnesota unless there’s a precedent that tells them otherwise.
Enter the Cincinnati Bengals. It’s weird to talk about the Bengals as a free-spending team after they dragged negotiations out with star receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. But it’s also relevant considering they’re now paying top-of-the-market prices for two wide receivers and their franchise quarterback, Joe Burrow.
There are ways to avoid the initial surge with big contracts, especially if they are spaced out over time. But allocating those resources directly into the passing game limits their ability to add reinforcements in free agency.
Cincinnati could also circumvent this through the draft, but their ineptitude with first-round pick Shemar Stewart could signal that whatever plan they’re using isn’t working. Former general manager Rick Spielman attempted to play lottery-ticket bingo with the NFL draft and ultimately lost his job in 2022.
So why does this relate to the Vikings? It’s because the league could change its opinion if the Bengals play well in the next two seasons. If Cincinnati becomes an AFC power with what they’ve invested in the passing game, other GMs could try to copy that formula and value high-octane passing games over other positions.
It seems unlikely, but it is also a pipe dream to think Addison’s situation is going away. After two seasons, Addison had more yards per reception (13.4) and receiving touchdowns (19) in his first two seasons than Wilson did (10.9 ypc, 10 TD). He could have had larger volume numbers if Kirk Cousins didn’t tear his Achilles. Addison didn’t miss two games with an ankle injury last season.
That highlights the importance of Addison to the Vikings, while also emphasizing the need for them to begin considering his future now. If the Vikings think Addison’s price will get too high, they may need to trade him after this year or next year to get something other than a comp pick in return. If they think they can afford it, they need to develop players at other positions that will need to be run on a budget.
It’s an unfortunate thing to think about when Addison is prepared to be a significant component of a team with Super Bowl aspirations. Still, it’s a truth the Vikings can’t ignore.