Chelsea are the new world champions - but can they really win the Premier League next season?
Whatever your opinion on FIFA’s new-fangled Club World Cup, there’s no denying the fact that Chelsea’s 3-0 victory over Paris Saint-Germain in Sunday’s final was an immensely impressive result.
There are plenty of reasons to dislike the Club World Cup, from its impact on the calendar to the way it was organised and brought about, but the teams involved in the latter stages of the competition certainly cared, and clearly valued the winner’s medals that Chelsea received at the end – although perhaps not as much as Donald Trump did, given that he stole one during the presentation ceremony. Resisting temptation has never been the President’s strong suit.
Chelsea, who actually earned their shiny new neckwear, are now world champions of a sort and will enter the new season on a high – a high strong enough, apparently, for Levi Colwill to declare that Chelsea were “ready” and “definitely capable” of winning the Premier League. But does he have a point, or did the Club World Cup show us strides that still need to be taken before Chelsea can truly compete for the biggest (or at least most established) trophies?
The Club World Cup showed us a Chelsea side that have improved – but by how much?
Enzo Maresca has made Chelsea a better side – there can be little doubt about that – and has, crucially, made them a team that knows how to win when a trophy is on the line. In the space of two months, they have played two finals and won both, and rediscovered some of the ruthlessness that was lost after the peaks of the Roman Abramovich era.
Crucially, Chelsea looked sharper in attack. Last season, they were inefficient in front of goal and one of only two teams in the top half of the table (along with Bournemouth) to underperform their xG. There are signs that could be changing.
Firstly, Nicolas Jackson – who is blessed with exceptional movement but lacks the kind of cutting edge Chelsea required in front of goal – has been displaced by two new signings, Liam Delap and João Pedro, with the latter in particular during his first three appearances for the side, scoring three times.
In the long run, it may be Delap who does more of the heavy lifting. One season of regular top-flight football only provides a small sample size, but he was incisive with the chances he was given at Ipswich Town. João Pedro has historically scored about as many goals as one would expect given his chances, but has never scored more than five from open play in the Premier League.
Perhaps the Brazilian will thrive in his relatively unfamiliar role as a centre-forward, or perhaps he will largely be used in a supporting role – either way, it may be a stretch to expect him to show the same kind of composure and threat in the penalty area every week that he did against Palmeiras and PSG. Still, with Delap and Pedro arriving alongside Jamie Gittens, Chelsea have more options and more cutting edge.
That could be crucial if Chelsea are to back up Colwill’s assertions. Last season, Chelsea scored 22 goals fewer than champions Liverpool and generated an expected goals tally 14.4 lower than the eventual champions. That was the single biggest gap between Chelsea and the teams which finished above them – creating and finishing chances.
It helps that Cole Palmer seems to be getting back to form, too. His struggles in the latter half of the season stymied Chelsea’s attack significantly, but two crisp finishes and a precise through ball into João Pedro hint at a key player coming back towards his best form. If Palmer is at his best for much of the season, Chelsea will be a stronger, scarier side.
Why Chelsea’s improvements still won’t be enough next season
The burning question, of course, is whether any of that is enough to bridge a very large gap in attacking production towards Liverpool – who have added the brilliant Florian Wirtz to an already dangerous team – and Arsenal and Manchester City, all of whom scored more goals.
Come to that, so did Newcastle United, Brentford and Brighton & Hove Albion. Chelsea’s attack wasn’t just below the bar set by the three teams who finished further up the table, but some way below it.
Maresca has made Chelsea sharper as a manager and has been given more firepower over the summer, but the gulf between Chelsea and the best is enormous. Would an on-song Palmer and the arrival of a couple of strikers and Gittens be worth 22 goals on its own? It seems somewhat unlikely.
Liverpool may well be even better going forward with Wirtz alongside Mohammed Salah, depending on whether they can sign a true striker and find some extra depth following the potential transfer of Luis Díaz and the appallingly tragic loss of Diogo Jota.
Arsenal, meanwhile are not only set to add the lethal Viktor Gyökeres to their ranks but also Noni Madueke, whose move from Stamford Bridge means the loss of one of Maresca’s regular starters, a strange move no matter how much economic sense it made. Manchester City and Erling Haaland will surely not be as wayward again.
In other words, Chelsea look set to be better up front, but the teams most likely to stand between them and a title could improve to an even greater degree, and Chelsea even made the idiosyncratic decision to strengthen a direct rival by selling them one of their players. Whatever one thinks about Madueke’s future prospects, giving Bukayo Saka the chance to put his feet up occasionally will surely make life easier for Arsenal.
Furthermore, while a more ruthless approach to goalscoring – and Chelsea certainly were ruthless in putting their relatively limited chances away against PSG – will make a difference next season, they also need to tighten things up at the back to overhaul Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City.
Given that Chelsea conceded fewer goals in the Premier League last season than every team bar the top two, that may seem like a strange statement, but that stat belies a defence which was slightly less sturdy than the 43 goals conceded might suggest. Four teams offered fewer chances up than Chelsea and while the gap between Maresca’s side and the very best was smaller at the back than it was up top, it still existed.
In that area, Chelsea have yet to find ways to improve. No doubt a defensive signing or two will be made but their approach to the transfer market has appeared to be rather jumbled – a bid to buy Mike Maignan proved abortive, the much-needed new centre-half remains unsigned and unwanted back-ups like Axel Disasi and Benoît Badiashile remain on the books. They may have improved in some areas, but their transfer business remains somewhat chaotic.
It's worth noting that during the Club World Cup, the xG model suggests that Chelsea ‘should’ have conceded goals at a rate of 1.14 goals per game, but actually did so at 0.71 goals. In other words, once again their number of clean sheets belies the reality of their defending – not that it’s awful, by any stretch, simply that it remains below the elite level set by other teams.
Chelsea are a better, stronger and more dangerous team than they have been at any point since the words ‘Clearlake’ and ‘Boehly’ developed meaning around Stamford Bridge, and they may well be gradually heading towards a point at which their status as world champions doesn’t exaggerate the quality of their squad – but for now, there seems to be a bit of work left to be done to reach the standards set by other teams over the course of an entire season. If Colwill is to be proven correct, then Chelsea need to make more signings and Maresca needs to make more tweaks.
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