The 2025 edition of Aaron Schatz’s Football Almanac has published. This is the third year in a row that this goldmine of statistical information and advanced analytics has been published through the FTN Fantasy platform, where Schatz’s fabled DVOA metric resides.
As usual, I’ve gone through the Seattle Seahawks chapter (plus additional league-wide material) and jotted down some notable statistics and key points on either side of the ball. How bad was the offense? How good was the defensive improvement? What was up with that high special teams ranking they received? Was the offensive line as pressure-prone as believed?
Let’s get going! Virtually all of the observations will involve players who were on both the 2024 and current Seahawks roster.
Offense
This was the worstSeahawks offense by DVOA in a long time
How long ago are we talking? You have to go back to 2006, aka the year after Steve Hutchinson left and both Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck missed several games due to injury. The 2024 Seahawks ranked between 13th and 23rd in the following splits: total, unadjusted, and weighted DVOA, home, road, first-, second-, and third-down, red zone, late and close games, passing, running, first half, and second half.
Too many penalties
The Seahawks offense was disjointed the entire season and the penalties were a huge issue. They led the league with 86 offensive penalties, which encompasses accepted, offsetting, and declined.
The Seahawks were terrible at executing play-action
We’ve heavily detailed and criticized former offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb for his stark lack of play-action passing. Not only were the Seahawks near the bottom in PA rate, but when they did use it the numbers weren’t great. Seattle had the largest negative split between PA and Non-PA passes, averaging 6.7 yards without PA but just 5.6 yards (with a negative DVOA) when using PA.
Seattle had tremendous fumble luck on offense
The Seahawks turned the ball over too damn much, but it could’ve also been a lot worse on offense beyond Geno Smith’s interceptions. They recovered 13 of their 16 fumbles, with only DK Metcalf (2) and Pharaoh Brown (1) suffering fumble turnovers. On the flip side, only five of 19 fumbles were recovered by Seattle’s defense.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba cut down on the drops in Year 2
Fully acknowledging his wrist surgery during preseason, drops were an issue for JSN as a rookie. FTN Fantasy dinged him for six drops on 93 targets, but he had just two on 137 targets as part of his 100-catch season. JSN quietly broke 15 tackles, good for ninth among all receivers and tight ends.
JSN was also number one in slot-to-wide target ratio, whereas DK Metcalf was number two in wide-to-slot target ratio.
Zach Charbonnet was a more effective running back than Kenneth Walker III
You know who was eighth among all running backs (min. 100 carries) in yards after contact? Zach Charbonnet, who boasted an average of 2.96 yards after contact. He also ranked third in avoided tackle rate and just about had a neutral DVOA of 0.1%, as opposed to Walker’s -9.0%. You know what would be better? If him and Walker didn’t have to break so many tackles in the first place, particularly behind the line of scrimmage.
Charles Cross kept the pressure rate low
Of the top 20 offensive tackles in lowest pressure rate, Cross ranked 13th (8th among left tackles) while playing the most snaps of anyone on the list. His 3.8% pressure rate is even more impressive when contextualizing how often the Seahawks left their tackles on islands to block 1-on-1.
The offensive line’s weak link in pass protection was... Abe Lucas
There were 37 right tackles who started enough games and played enough snaps to be ranked. Lucas was 33rd in pressure rate allowed (7.0%) and third among all Seahawks OL starters in penalties despite missing half the season.
Believe it or not, Seattle’s interior allowed only 70 pressures, which was only tenth-worst in the NFL.
Geno Smith’s final season in Seattle, plus some notes on Sam Darnold
The final year of Geno was the worst by advanced metrics, difficult extenuating circumstances or not. After 12th and 13th ranked passing DVOAs in his first two seasons as starter, he fell to 22nd in 2024. His accuracy rate was elite (yes, even with the turnovers) last season, his Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) was on par with his 2022, and the deep passing DVOA was eighth. However, the average depth of target remained outside the top 30 for the second year running, and his adjusted sack rate was narrowly his worst.
Smith was among the most hit quarterbacks in the NFL (unsurprisingly), but so was Sam Darnold, who was hit three fewer times (59) than Geno (62). Darnold was also identical in CPOE to Geno. Interestingly enough, Darnold led the NFL in yards gained off of defensive pass interference and he was second in yards lost due to dropped passes. Smith was in the top 20 in both categories, as well. It doesn’t take a lot of thinking to figure out which Vikings receivers drew a ton of PI penalties, while Tyler Lockett was Seattle’s top player for DPI.
Minnesota had the number one deep passing offense by DVOA under Darnold, but Darnold’s pressured vs. not pressured DVOA was the 12th-largest disparity. The Vikings o-line had a greater pressure rate allowed than Seattle but with the caveat that Darnold’s average time to throw was nearly a quarter of a second longer than Smith, who regularly endured some of the quickest pressures in the NFL.
Lastly, one factoid that caught my eye re Darnold’s 2024: “His 68.8% DVOA on first-read throws was third in the league, and his 49 explosive plays on first-read throws led the NFL.”
Defense
Leonard Williams was amazing against the pass and run
Big Cat dominated and did everything but get an All-Pro nod. He “was one of just eight players with double-digit sacks and rush defeats, and he did that while playing the fewest snaps of that group.” For context, defeats are defined as, “The total number of plays which stop the offense from gaining first down yardage on third or fourth down, stop the offense behind the line of scrimmage, or result in a fumble (regardless of which team recovers) or interception.”
This was the best Seahawks pass defense since the peak Legion of Boom years
Not exaggerating on this one! Not that the Seahawks pass defense was elite, but their DVOA of 1.0% was their best mark since 2015, the last year Seattle boasted the No. 1 scoring defense. If you took out sacks the Seahawks were still 12th.
The tackling was much cleaner under Mike Macdonald
The 2023 Seahawks were an abysmal tackling team, ranking 29th in broken tackles/touch and dead last in total broken tackles. In year one under Mike Macdonald, the Seahawks were eighth in broken tackles/touch and ninth in total broken tackles. Coby Bryant had one of the better tackle rates among all defenders in the NFL at 7.7%.
Julian Love was in rare company
In his second season in Seattle, Love “was one of three safeties to be ranked in the top 10 in coverage DVOA, yards per pass allowed, and success rate in 2024.” I’m unsure as to the other two safeties but I think you get the idea that Love has a damn good year.
Ernest Jones IV made a difference in the run game
I don’t want to be mean and spin this as, “moving on from Tyrel Dodson and Jerome Baker improved the run defense,” but this is one of the hidden messages. The main story is still Ernest Jones, who ranked 10th among all off-ball linebackers in run stops. Seattle’s run defense improved from -2.2% to -6.0% after his arrival. They were sixth in the NFL from Week 10 onward.
The Seahawks were still a significantly different defense without pressure
Seattle ranked 12th in quarterback pressure rate and fifth in DVOA with pressure. Without pressure? Their DVOA was just 18th, which isn’t terrible, but underscores how much Seattle’s defensive efficiency was reliant on getting after the QB. This is, however, huge improvement from when the Seahawks were 29th with pressure and 25th without pressure in Pete Carroll’s final season.
The Seahawks were terrible at defending play-action
The PA woes were on both sides of the ball. Seattle gave up an astounding 8.5 yards per play on play-action but a stout 5.1 yards in non-PA situations. Much like the offense, the Seahawks defense had the widest disparity of any team in terms of worse performance against PA, and no one else was even close. A -19.9% DVOA vs. non-PA is elite, whereas 47.4% DVOA vs. PA is stinky.
Special Teams
Jason Myers and Michael Dickson did extremely heavy lifting
Believe it or not, Seattle was 10th in special teams DVOA. The Seahawks were top five in field goals and punts and the best ranked NFC team in terms of scrimmage kicks.
Everything else, though? Whoo boy. They were 31st in combined kick and punt return value, better than only the Tennessee Titans. Seattle’s kick coverage unit wasn’t particularly great but the damage that (mostly) Dee Williams and Laviska Shenault Jr caused throughout the season was a real headache.
There’s so much more but a whole lot has been written already! If you have any questions you’d like answered that could be in the almanac, please go down to the comments section and I’ll see if I can address them!