Stat, Viz, Quiz is the Opta Analyst football newsletter. This week’s edition looks at England’s chances of progression at Euro 2025, the data behind Fluminense’s Jhon Arias, and Brazilian clubs at the Club World Cup.
So, there we have it. The expanded FIFA Club World Cup 2025 has come to an end. Some loved it. Some didn’t.
In the end, Chelsea upset PSG in an all-European final. But perhaps one of the tournament’s biggest talking points was the performance of Brazilian sides, which we will look at in more detail here.
One of those sides was Fluminense, and it looks like Wolves are closing in on one of their standout players, Jhon Arias. We break down that potential move to the Premier League.
Elsewhere, it’s quarter-final time at Women’s Euro 2025. Who does the Opta supercomputer have as favourites? And did England actually benefit from finishing second in Group D?
Lastly, can you name every player who’s played for both Arsenal and Chelsea in the Premier League? Answers revealed at the bottom.
Let’s dive in.
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STAT – Samba Stuff
No nation made more of an impression at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup than Brazil.
All four Brazilian Serie A clubs made it out of the group stage, while Fluminense even reached the semi-finals before being falling to eventual winners Chelsea.
Excluding the all-Brazilian last-16 tie between Palmeiras and Botafogo, Brazilian clubs won twice as many matches (8) as they lost (4), with Botafogo (1-0 vs Paris Saint-Germain), Flamengo (3-1 vs Chelsea) and Fluminense (2-0 vs Internazionale) securing three of the tournament’s biggest shocks.
Based on the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match projections, Botafogo’s win over PSG in the group stage had just a 6.4% chance of occurring. That ended up being the most surprising victory of the tournament, just ahead of Fluminense’s last-16 victory over Inter (7.5% chance at pre-match).
If Brazilian clubs were underestimated before the tournament, fans have taken note just a month later.
Their performances haven’t gone unnoticed by the Opta Power Rankings, either. All four Brazilian teams have risen in the rankings since the tournament started.
Semi-finalists Fluminense moved up the furthest. Still the lowest-ranked club of the four, they have risen 63 places from 195th in the world to 132nd. Each of the other three sides – Botafogo (92nd), Flamengo (66th) and Palmeiras (72nd) – are now ranked inside the top 100 places in men’s Power Rankings.
Brazilian Teams at the Club World Cup - Opta Power Rankings
VIZ – Dear Jhon
Jhon Arias - touch map Club World Cup
Fluminense may have impressed, but Jhon Arias might not be around to finish their season. Wolves are reportedly closing in on a £17m deal for the Colombian.
The Colombian mainly plays off the right for Fluminense, either wide in a front three or on the right of a front two.
One thing’s for certain: Arias makes things happen.
Oddly for a player who plays so far forward, the Colombian sees more of the ball than anyone else on Fluminense’s team. In the Club World Cup, he led the side for touches per 90 (68.2) and showed a willingness to drop deep and get on the ball.
From there, he can affect the game. Arias led all players in the tournament for chances created (18), ahead of the likes of Cole Palmer (12) and Nicoló Barella (12).
Sure, some of those came from set-pieces, but Arias’ involvement in open play is highlighted by his attacking sequence involvements. He was involved in 40 open-play passing moves that led to a shot for Fluminense, double that of any teammate.
In fact, when you compare that on a per-90 basis across players of all clubs, Arias sneaks into the top 10 (6.7). Just look at the calibre of players above him on the list.
Club World Cup Sequence Involvements - Per 90
He is also more than happy to track back and work hard off the ball, too, leading all Fluminense players for possession won per 90 (4.3) during the summer tournament in America.
Looking specifically at the 2025 Brazilian Serie A campaign, only three players have created more open-play chances than he has for his teammates (20), while he’s one of four players to share the lead at the top of the assist rankings (4).
There’s a lot to like for a player who Wolves might be acquiring for just £17 million.
QUIZ – Chelsea to Arsenal and Arsenal to Chelsea
We’ve got a slightly different format for our quiz this week.
If Kepa plays for Arsenal this season, he would become the 16th player to appear for both Arsenal and Chelsea in the Premier League. How many of the 15 players to play for both sides can you name?
Ask Opta
This week’s question comes from Helen M, who asks: “Have England actually done ‘better’ by finishing second in their group at Euro 2025? Looks like they avoid the worst side of the draw?”
Do you have a stat-based question you’d like Opta to answer in a future edition of SVQ? Email us at editors@theanalyst.com or message us on X @OptaAnalyst with #AskOpta and we’ll pick the best one.
Answer:
Well, it certainly looks that way. By finishing second in Group D, England have found themselves on the more favourable side of the draw.
They’ve successfully avoided Spain, Germany and France – three of the Opta supercomputer’s four leading favourites to win the tournament. England, of course, are the fourth.
Instead, England will play Sweden in the quarter-finals. The Swedes upset the odds at the weekend, beating Germany 4-1 in Zurich to finish top of Group C. Should England progress, they’ll face either Norway or Italy in the semi-finals, which is a notably softer path than if they had topped their group.
As a result, the Opta supercomputer has England as second favourites to win the tournament outright (22.5%). Spain at 26.9% remain the favourites.
But the most striking figure is England’s projected 43.2% chance of reaching the final.
That’s now almost the same as the best team in the tournament, Spain (43.6%), and much higher than their pre-tournament projection of 28.9%. A rematch of the 2023 World Cup final could be on the cards.
Women's Euro 2025 Quarter-final predictions
Quiz Answers
If Kepa plays for Arsenal this season, he would become the 16th player to appear for both Arsenal and Chelsea in the Premier League. How many of the 15 players to play for both sides can you name?
Ashley Cole, Cesc Fàbregas, David Luiz, Emmanuel Petit, Jorginho, Kai Havertz, Lassana Diarra, Nicolas Anelka, Olivier Giroud, Petr Cech, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Raheem Sterling, William Gallas, Willian, Yossi Benayoun.
(Should Arsenal complete the signing of Noni Madueke from Chelsea – and Madueke also plays in the Premier League for them – he would be number 17.)
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