In the six years since he was officially minted as the first overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft out of Oklahoma by way of Texas A&M, Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray ranks eighth in passing attempts (2,780), seventh in completions (1,864), 12th in passing yards (19,498), 15th in passing touchdowns (115), ninth in interceptions (57), 30th in touchdown percentage (4.1%), 24th in interception percentage (2.1%), 25th in passer rating (92.4), sixth in sacks (179), and 26th in Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt (6.06).
Murray was the 2019 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2019, he made Pro Bowls in 2020 and 2021, and he signed a five-year, $230.5 million contract extension with $103.3 million guaranteed in 2022. Murray also became the fourth quarterback in pro football history -- Josh Allen, Cam Newton, and Russell Wilson are the others -- with over 19,000 passing yards and over 3,000 rushing yards in their first six seasons.
In those six seasons, the Cardinals' 40-59-1 record and .405 winning percentage rank 26th in the NFL, and Murray has been through several different offenses. There was Kliff Kingsbury's development from spread offense maven to more balanced NFL-style play-caller as Arizona's head coach from 2019 through 2022, and offensive coordinator Drew Petzing's ascent as one of the NFL's more highly-evaluated assistants over the last two years, when Kingsbury was replaced by former Philadelphia Eagles head coach Jonathan Gannon.
If the story so far is that Murray has not yet lived up to his ultimate potential despite some flashy metrics and historic numbers in certain directions, there's something to that. Last season, Murray completed 372 of 541 passes (68.8%) for 3,851 yards (7.1 YPA), 21 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and a passer rating of 93.5. Not bad at all, but hardly transcendent — which summarized Murray's NFL career to date more often than not. Murray is hardly the only reason for that disappointing win percentage, but everyone involved would like to see him become the kind of quarterback who can pull his team out of the muck of mediocrity.
So far, the returns have been mixed. Gannon, coming into his third season as the head coach, said at the 2025 scouting combine that as Murray's consistency has improved, great things are coming... and soon.
"I think a lot," Gannon said regarding what that consistency can bring. "How we set up practice, how we play the game. There are things that go into that. That's a really good question. I don't think it's just the quarterback, it's the whole team. Myself... it's the whole team. I'm really excited where he's at right now. I really am. I'm not going to make any power statements, but he's going to have a heck of a year."
Perhaps it's as simple as Murray doing what he did in the first half of the 2024 season. From Week 1 through Week 10, Murray completed 191 of 276 passes (69.2%) for 2,058 yards (7.5 YPA), 12 touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 100.8, which ranked ninth among NFL starting quarterbacks.
Then, in Weeks 11-17, Murray completed 156 of 230 passes (67.8%) for 1,551 yards (6.7 YPA), five touchdowns, eight interceptions, and a passer rating of 79.5, which ranked 26th.
Finally, in Week 18, Murray beat the daylights out of the San Francisco 49ers in a 47-24 win in which he completed 25 of 35 passes for 242 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 128.5.
At this point, it's fair to ask: Will the real Kyler Murray please stand up? Or, is this kind of inconsistency the best there is?
“Really close," Murray said after that 49ers win, when asked how close the Cardinals are to being a playoff team — something they've been only once in his time with them. "I think we're a couple plays... I mean every team can say it, but I think we're literally a couple plays away from being a 10-win team. I'm not going to get up here and complain about some of the things that happened throughout the season that I think kind of altered some games. I think we've all got to look in the mirror and see how we can be better going into next season, me included, and come out here and be better next year.”
Well, everyone is saying the right things.
"I think now we know what we're capable of and how good we really can be," tight end Trey McBride told me during Super Bowl week. "I think it's just the confidence of knowing that we can beat these really good teams, and we deserve to be in the playoffs every single year. And I'm excited to see everybody ready to go for next season. It’s just gonna continue to get better in Arizona."
McBride became one of the NFL's most productive tight ends in his third season, catching 111 balls on 139 targets for 1,146 yards and two touchdowns. Rookie receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. certainly had his moments in 2024, and more should be expected (and received) from a player of Harrison's impressive talent. Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch round out a good group of receivers, and James Conner is still one of the NFL's more productive running backs in the passing game. The Cardinals' offensive line, once a severe liability, has become more of a strength, as has the defense.
You know how it goes, though — if the Cardinals are to ascend past the middle of the pack, it will be up to their quarterback to get them there. Murray must finally transcend his balkiness and ceaseless desire to improvise when he doesn't need to, settle down in the pocket, and make the reads and throws that are given within the scheme. His coaches have done that for him, and when he's at his best, Murray has responded well.
If that doesn't happen — if Murray remains a maddeningly inconsistent quarterback — one wonders how long the organization will stick with him. Murray's contract makes moving on financially prohibitive over the next two seasons, but then, things get interesting in 2027. That gives Murray through his ninth NFL season, and his age 30 year, to figure it out. Fair enough, really — if it hasn't happened by then, it may not happen at all, and the Cardinals will be looking for a reset, as they should.
(All advanced metrics courtesy ofPro Football Focus andSports Info Solutions).