As rumours swirl about Liverpool, Newcastle and Alexander Isak, should Arne Slot’s Plan B be obvious?
You’d be forgiven for struggling to keep up with the flurry of transfer rumours that has emerged over the past 24 hours concerning Liverpool and Newcastle United, but the state of play is currently quite simple: Liverpool want Alexander Isak, but Newcastle won’t sell him. At the same time, Newcastle want Hugo Ekitike, also an alleged Liverpool target, but aren’t willing to pay full price. There’s a lot of chatter, but little has actually changed.
That’s probably more of an issue for Liverpool than it is for Newcastle. Eddie Howe may well be keen on Ekitike, who enjoyed a thoroughly impressive season with Eintracht Frankfurt, but he overlaps with Isak not just in terms of his position but his style of play. So long as the Sweden international remains at St. James’ Park, missing out on Ekitike is more of a frustration than a serious issue.
Liverpool, however, need a striker. Darwin Núñez is earmarked for sale and they frankly haven’t yet found a suitable replacement for Roberto Firmino, who left the club back in 2023. Isak, second only to Erling Haaland in the Premier League, would be just about perfect. If only they could find a striker on the market who was similar to Isak in many ways, but who would perhaps be half the price…
Hugo Ekitike is Alexander Isak 2.0 – and perfect for Liverpool
Liverpool probably knew fine well that Newcastle had no intention of selling Isak going in. Depending on who you choose to believe, signing Isak is either impossible or would cost at least £150m, and the intent may have been to unsettle Isak ahead of future negotiations rather than to get a deal done now. Either that, or Liverpool simply took the optimist’s approach and decided to shoot their shot regardless.
Still, they have determined that Isak is the type of striker they need. Whether it’s his technique, his physical qualities, movement, the surprising ease with which he takes the ball in those loping strides, or just his exceptionally cool finishing, they plainly believe that he would be the perfect player to have taking chances ahead of Mohammed Salah and Florian Wirtz.
Every indication suggests that they won’t get him, in this transfer window at least, but the second man in a transfer saga that’s moving extremely quickly while going nowhere is so similar to Isak in so many ways that one wonders why Liverpool don’t simply skip all the fruitless haggling and sign Ekitike instead.
Ekitike has the same rangy build, broad strides matched with swift acceleration, the same knack for peeling off the centre-half at the last moment and the same incisive eye for goal, as evinced by 21 goals over the past season.
Putting Isak and Ekitike’s stats next to each other shows just how small the gap between them is. They pass or dribble the ball almost exactly as often as each other, and their success rates with both are virtually identical. Their heat maps overlap. They touch the ball as often, and in the same areas.
In short, if you’ve identified Isak as the perfect fit for your system and can’t get him, it only makes sense to go for Ekitike instead, especially given that Newcastle’s opening £70m bid was swiftly rejected by Eintracht Frankfurt, who are said to be holding out for £85m. The door has been left ajar from Liverpool, and if they can afford to make enquiries for a player who could cost £150m, then they can afford to sign a player for £85m.
Ekitike isn’t quite as good as Isak just yet – but it’s close enough
Of course, while Isak and Ekitike may mirror each other in many regards, there are certain differences – not least the fact that Isak is a goalscorer who is proven over the course of several years in the top flight in England and Spain, while Ekitike can only offer one big season in the Bundesliga as evidence of his excellence.
Isak’s finishing touch is also that much sharper – where Ekitike scored 22 goals in all competitions at a rate of 0.55 every 90 minutes, Isak scored 27 at a rate of 0.74. The Swede also exceeded his expected goals where Ekitike slightly undershot his. Given the similarities between their stat lines in all other regards, it shouldn’t be too surprised that their total xG was pretty much the same.
So Isak is slightly better at scoring goals and offers more of a guarantee, although Ekitike, to his credit, did register more assists than Isak last season and created more shooting chances for his team-mates, so the conversation isn’t entirely one-sided. Still, there is a reason that one player costs rather more than the other.
But how much more? If Liverpool would be prepared to pay well over £100m for Isak, is the gap so large (or the gamble so big) that it isn’t worth chancing £85m on Ekitike instead given the enormous similarities between them?
One can extend that question to Newcastle, too – given that the gulf between the two strikers is relatively small, wouldn’t it make financial and footballing sense to sell Isak for a fortune, pay Frankfurt’s asking price and turn a colossal profit on a deal which doesn’t dent the team’s attacking output all that much?
It’s easier to understand why Newcastle would clench at the thought of taking that chance, especially given the extent to which they would have strengthened a rival for European places while hurting themselves if the trade all went south and Ekitike struggled. Isak has become their talisman, surely the best striker they have had since Alan Shearer. Letting him go, no matter how much sense it might make, would be a painful concept to wrap their collective head around.
The most likely scenario right now is that Isak stays at St. James’ Park and Liverpool look elsewhere, having irritated the powers that be on Tyneside to no end in the process – and they may well turn their attentions to Ekitike instead. As second choices go, getting what could amount to a younger, cheaper version of Isak certainly seems pretty strong.
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