By Bob Condotta Seattle Times
The period between the end of the NFL’s offseason programs and the beginning of training camp is increasingly referred to by some as “list season.”
With nothing of note going on in the NFL for about six weeks — the only six weeks of the year when that is the case — those who cover the league fill the news void with endless rankings, lists, predictions and projections about the upcoming season.
This year, “list season” has made even clearer the microscope new Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold finds himself under to prove that his 2024 breakout season with Minnesota wasn’t a fluke — and that Seattle made the right move to sign him to replace the traded Geno Smith.
Despite spending much of last season regarded as a legitimate NFL MVP candidate — ultimately finishing 10th in the voting — Darnold hasn’t found himself mentioned often when it comes to ranking the best QBs in the league entering 2025.
Maybe the most notable such omission arrived this week when ESPN published its annual ranking of the Top 10 NFL QBs entering the season based on a vote of what it said was a vote of “Execs, coaches and scouts.”
Darnold was not only not in the top 10, he was not one of the two listed as honorable mention or among the other six receiving votes. Meaning, he’s not in the top 18, at the least.
ESPN’s ranking is generally regarded as having as much substance as any such list could have because of its methodology.
As stated in the story: “Voters gave us their best 10 players at a position, then we compiled the results and ranked candidates based on number of top-10 votes, composite average and dozens of interviews, with research and film study help from ESPN NFL analyst Matt Bowen. In total, more than 70 voters submitted a ballot on at least one position, and in many cases all positions. Additional voting and follow-up calls with those surveyed helped us break any ties.”
To reiterate, not one of those “more than 70″ voters feels Darnold is one of the top 10 QBs entering the season.
Also not receiving votes?
Former Seahawks QBs Smith and Russell Wilson, now with the Giants.
Maybe Seahawks fans can take some heart in the omission of Smith, which could be viewed as league observers agreeing that Seattle made the right decision for the long term not to sign Smith (who turns 35 in October) to a contract extension worth $40 million or more per year, which is what it would have taken to keep him.
The Seahawks traded Smith to the Raiders for a third-round pick (which they used on Alabama QB Jalen Milroe) and signed Darnold (who turned 28 in June) to a three-year contract worth up to $100.5 million but structured so that the Seahawks could get out of it after just one season and paying him $37.5 million.
Put another way, Smith’s $40 million cap hit this year ranks sixth this season among NFL QBs while Darnold’s $13.4 million is 20th.
The only numbers that matter once September rolls around are wins and losses on the field and not cap space gained on spread sheets.
A July ranking based on the votes of anonymous coaches, execs and scouts, of course, also doesn’t matter once September rolls around.
Still, those who have high hopes for the Seahawks may not be soothed by the doubts that remain about Darnold.
It’s fair that observers question if Darnold’s 2024 season (which featured a 35-to-12 TD-to-interception rate) is enough to offset the struggles of earlier in his career and stamp him as a surefire top-10 QB just yet.
But some eyebrows might have been raised that every other starting QB in the NFC West got at least one vote while Darnold did not, or that Denver’s Bo Nix also got a vote while Darnold did not.
ESPN’s rankings only detailed reasons why QBs were ranked and not why some weren’t, so there was no reasoning given for Darnold’s omission.
As other season previews begin to be published in books, magazines and websites, some of the reasons for why doubts remain about Darnold are clearly stated.
Darnold threw for 63 touchdowns and 56 interceptions in 56 career starts from 2018-23 before going 35 and 12 in 17 starts last season.
He’s also never completed more than 61.9% of passes in any season before completing 66.2% last year.
Darold memorably was sacked 11 times while throwing just one TD with one interception in his final two games of the 2024 season, blowout losses by scores of 31-9 at Detroit and 27-9 at the Rams. The game against the Lions decided the NFC North title, the latter was a wild card playoff contest.
So did Darnold really turn a corner in 2024?
Or did he just benefit from a good offensive system with the Vikings and coach Kevin O’Connell as well as throwing to elite receiver Justin Jefferson?
The recently-released FTN Football Almanac 2025 offered what is probably a consensus assessment of Darnold entering the season.
Author Bryan Knowles called Darnold’s 2024 season a “carefully stage-managed revival” in which O’Connell was able to tailor the offense to best suit his skills and minimize his weaknesses.
What the Minnesota offense gave Darnold lots of opportunities to do what he is perceived to do best — throw deep. Via the FTN Football Almanac’s numbers, no receiving corps was better on deep passes last season than Minnesota.
Knowles, and others around the league, wonder if new Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak can pull off the same trick with a receiving corps that no longer features DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett and is led by two players who have spent most of their careers working out of the slot — Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp. There’s also the matter of if an offensive line in Seattle that is still regarded as among the bottom tier in the NFL can give Darnold time to throw deep.
“Just because some of Darnold’s flaws have been hidden the past couple of years doesn’t mean they’re not still there,” Knowles wrote, referencing Darnold grading out decently in seven starts in 2022 and 2023 with Carolina and the 49ers. “The trouble the Seahawks are going to have is that they don’t have nearly the same capabilities to accentuate Darnold’s positives and hide his negatives that Minnesota did a year ago — and that even if Darnold really has turned a corner in his career, he may still be a worse fit for the 2025 Seahawks than Geno Smith would have been.”
The storylines have been set, let the games begin.