**Jeff Hickman (Terre Haute, Ind.): Why did we try to run the ball on 3rd and long so much last season, aren't we better off throwing a long shot and having some kinda chance?**
**JJ Stankevitz:** Jeff has a good eye here, which allows me to get deep into the weeds on this – which is exactly where I want to be in mid-July.
Jonathan Taylor led the NFL in rushing attempts on third down with seven or more yards to go in 2024 (he had 12 such attempts). But let's dig into these numbers a bit to answer the second part of Jeff's question here about throwing the ball past the sticks in an attempt to get a first down.
Seven of those 12 runs came in extremely disadvantageous situations for the Colts' offense, like late-half third-and-15s or third-and-20-plus situations. But there were five attempts on traditional passing downs – third and 7-10 yards – that are worth looking at here. Taylor, by the way, also led the NFL with five rushing attempts on third down with 7-10 yards to go; no other player had more than three.
Here are those five attempts:
* **Week 4 vs. PIT:** 6:32 3rd quarter, 3rd and 7, ball on PIT 39-yard line: 3-yard gain
* **Week 11 @ NYJ:** 8:24 3rd quarter, 3rd and 9, ball on NYJ 38-yard line: 0-yard rush
* **Week 15 @ DEN:** 11:49 1st quarter, 3rd and 10, ball on DEN 38-yard line: 15-yard gain, first down
* **Week 15 @ DEN:** 1:51 1st quarter, 3rd and 9, ball on DEN 33-yard line: 10-yard gain, first down
* **Week 17 @ NYG:** 14:23 2nd quarter, 3rd and 8, ball on NYG 40-yard line: 5-yard gain
It's a small sample size, sure, but a 40 percent first down rate on these plays is notably right in line with what the Colts' first down rate was on quarterback dropbacks on third and 7-10 (39 percent; that rate does include scrambles and not just passing attempts).
Zooming out, the Colts were actually good at converting these plays into first downs last year compared to the rest of the league. The Colts had 79 third down plays with 7-10 yards to go, third-most in the NFL, but converted 37.2 percent of them, good for the ninth-highest rate in the NFL.
Third-and-long decisions teams make are hyper-dependent on situation and opponent (i.e., are we playing for a field goal, are we at a spot on the field where we can go for it on fourth down, does the score/time remaining mean we should punt, etc.). But to answer Jeff's question, last year for the Colts, they broadly were about as good at handing the ball to Taylor as they were having Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco drop back; in all cases, they were pretty good at turning those plays into first downs.