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ESPN analyst projects chances for Arch Manning to be picked No. 1 overall in NFL Draft

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Arch Manning will be one of the most monitored quarterbacks in the country in 2025. After serving as Quinn Ewers’ backup at Texas, Manning is ready to take over at QB1.

Could he join his uncles, Peyton (1998) and Eli (2004), in the No. 1 overall pick club in 2026?

On Thursday, ESPN’s Jordan Reid projected the chances of 14 draft-eligible quarterbacks having their name called first in the spring. Manning made the list as a “potential riser” with a 5 percent chance of being taken first overall.

Here’s what Reid said, while adding that it’s possible Manning could return for the 2026 season to develop further under Steve Sarkisian:

The glimpses we saw last season were promising, as he threw for 939 yards, 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions while rushing for 106 yards and four scores. At 6-4, 222 pounds, Manning has the frame scouts covet and uses it effectively. He has a picture-perfect base and smooth delivery, and his dual-threat capability forces defenses to account for his running.

“There is plenty for Manning to work on. He must become better at progressing past his first read, as his tendency to stick to it leads to bad decisions and forced throws. He also needs to use his mobility more and be more willing to scramble on dropbacks.

While Manning’s uncles were top overall picks, his grandfather, Archie, didn’t quite get there, “only” going second overall in 1971.

If the younger Manning does declare when the season ends, though, one sportsbook has him as its favorite to go first. Bet365 has it at +200, ahead of Penn State’s Drew Allar (+400) and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier (+450).

Sydney Hunte

Sydney is an Atlanta-based journalist who has covered everything from SEC and ACC football to MLS, the U.S. men's national soccer team and professional tennis. His work has appeared on such platforms as SB Nation, Cox Media Group and FanSided.