Unless you live under a rock, you know that the Pittsburgh Steelers need to put up more points on the scoreboard in 2025. One important element of this that I want to look at is red zone receiving production.
The goal of the article is to look at current Steelers receivers who had a minimum of five red zone targets last season and see what it could mean for 2025.
Here are routes run and targets in the red zone in 2024:
Clearly, the most positive results and only above-the-mean players were at tight end. Jonnu Smith saw the most volume as a Dolphin in 2024, with 64 red zone routes run (T-30th) and 18 targets (T-19th) out of 177 qualifiers (min. five red zone targets).
He lands furthest above the trend line of the group we’re focused on, meaning Smith was targeted most given his routes run. Of the many elements Pittsburgh is hoping he is an upgrade, the red zone could where he makes the biggest impact on his new team.
Also, Pat Freiermuth was close behind in red zone opportunity with Pittsburgh last year. Sixty-two red zone routes run tied for 34th, and he had 14 targets (T-37th). While the routes run were nearly identical, we see the bigger difference was less targets to Freiermuth but right at the trend line.
Leaning on the TE room would be wise for quarterback Aaron Rodgers, and it has another candidate who didn’t qualify in 2024 with red zone potential – Darnell Washington. A massive human who Rodgers raved about to lob it up to is intriguing, and hopefully this strong position can help fix Pittsburgh and Rodgers’ red zone production.
Wide receiver DK Metcalf was just above the mean with 49 red zone routes run. But only nine red zone targets (T-81st) was surprising to find. He played 15 games in 2024, an underutilized physical specimen who should thrive in the red zone. More involvement would go a long way toward stressing defenses that have the red zone advantage with less ground to cover.
Maximizing situations leading up to red zone opportunities must happen first in order to maximize playmakers’ their potential. Pittsburgh did improve red zone attempts in last season (T-15th), compared to 29th in 2023. Rodgers and the Jets came in right behind the Steelers in 2024 at 17th. So, the hope is Pittsburgh’s red zone opportunities will at least be equal, if not increase, in 2025.
The question is what the quality will look like after the Steelers ranked 29th in red zone touchdown rate last year. As you’d probably guess given their record, the Jets weren’t ideal there either but ranked better at 21st. Here’s to hoping that bodes well for the Black and Gold to positively turn around this re-worked offense for the success fans have been yearning for.
Here is a visual to illustrate quality in 2024. Let’s look at positive rate (percentage of positive plays i.e. successful play) and touchdowns in the red zone:
The tight ends had encouraging quality to match higher usage while the wide receivers and running backs were stale in comparison. Freiermuth had a 78.6-percent positive rate (10th) and six touchdowns (T-14th), and Smith posted seven touchdowns (T-seventh) along with a 61.1-percent positive rate (35th). Largely top 15 (out of 177) players. Nice.
On the flip side, the rest were well below league average. Metcalf’s lack of red zone impact is two-sided. He is obviously high on opponents’ radar, creating more opportunities for teammates. But one TD is far less production needed from a top-five salaried wide receiver, particularly without the strongest depth behind him.
Surely Rodgers will involve Metcalf more than QB Geno Smith did in the red zone. As the roster currently sits, wide receiver Calvin Austin III must step up in many ways in 2025, which hopefully includes the red zone. Running back Jaylen Warren seems poised to break out after being a 1B option to Najee Harris (now a Charger) in 2024.
Assuming Warren’s hands are on the reins much more this season, his receiving strengths, seeing more red zone snaps, and Rodgers targeting the position often could make for a nice uptick and weapon defenses must respect.
Then there are the players who didn’t qualify for various reasons. Rookie running back Kaleb Johnson wasn’t used much as a receiver at Iowa, but he has shown abilities and figures to be on the field as a bigger back near the goal line. Also brought in was Super Bowl champ Kenneth Gainwell. Known for his receiving, he may sprinkle in some of that in the red zone.
WR Roman Wilson was basically stripped of his rookie season due to injuries, and what things will look like for him in all aspects in Year 2 will be important to monitor. Veteran Robert Woods was buried on Houston’s deep WR depth chart last season and might earn more opportunity than he had in 2024.
Not the most inspiring group, but if it can be complementary to the tight ends with a hopeful positive trend for Metcalf and Warren, there is cautious optimism that the Steelers could be a better red zone offense in 2025. If not, it could be more of the same even though many faces have changed.
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