It’s not about where you’ve been, it’s about where you’re about to go.
For each of the 32 starting quarterbacks entering the 2025 NFL season, there’s reason to be hopeful and also have cause for concern. In the case of someone such as MVP Josh Allen, his talents are otherworldly but will the lack of top-tier weapons eventually catch up to him? Conversely, Joe Burrow has elite talent at receiver in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, but is the rest of the roster serviceable?
In these quarterback rankings, we’re not slotting in the signal-callers by what they’ve done before. Instead, this is a look at how we think the rankings will look by season’s end.
Of course, past performance informs what to expect, but these rankings factor in offseason additions and subtractions around the quarterbacks, along with quarterback movement itself.
For example, Geno Smith is a good quarterback, but he goes from a stable organization with the Seahawks to a rebuilding one in the Raiders, which has exactly zero playoff wins since 2002. In the NFC, J.J. McCarthy steps to the fore with the Vikings, becoming the first quarterback to take over a team that won at least 14 games the prior season since Brian Griese did so with the Broncos in 1999.
Here is how we believe the NFL quarterback rankings will look when you’re taking down the mistletoe in January.
Shough might be in the most challenging situation 2025 has to offer.
The Saints are breaking in a first-time coach in Kellen Moore with their best receiver, Chris Olave, coming off a season that saw him sustain multiple concussions in eight games. Shough is also a 25-year-old who spent seven seasons in college across Oregon, Texas Tech and Louisville. Now, another system at a higher level.
If New Orleans and Shough are going to succeed, it’ll be because Olave stays healthy, Moore proves a savant, and the offensive line can function with a rookie left tackle in Kelvin Banks Jr. and a second-year man on the right side in Taliese Fuaga.
Cleveland Browns quarterback Joe Flacco
Joe Flacco might be the Browns' best choice to start at quarterback. / Ken Blaze-Imagn Images
The Browns have four healthy quarterbacks, and none are surefire starters.
However, Flacco is the best choice to beat out rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders and veteran Kenny Pickett. Having helped Cleveland to the playoffs in 2023, Flacco is a familiar face for coach Kevin Stefanski, who has dealt with 11 starting quarterbacks since 2020.
Flacco started six games for the Colts last year and threw 12 touchdowns against seven interceptions, but now takes over an offense lacking proven talent beyond 1,000-yard receiver Jerry Jeudy and veteran tight end David Njoku. Last season, the Browns also led the league in drops with 48.
Fields is starting for his third team in as many years, largely because he fails to create explosive passing plays.
Over his four-year career, Fields has never averaged more than 7.1 yards per attempt, topping out at 17th in the league. With the Jets, Fields has star receiver Garrett Wilson, who recorded 101 catches and 1,104 yards last year, but not much else. New York traded away Davante Adams and is relying on veterans Allen Lazard and Josh Reynolds.
Fields must continue using his legs (he’s rushed for 2,509 yards in his career) while cutting down his fumbles and sacks. Fields has fumbled 44 times, including a league-high 16 in 2022, while being sacked 151 times in 50 games.
The No. 1 pick joins a team in a full-scale rebuild.
First-time general manager Mike Borgonzi spent the offseason adding to the offensive line, with veteran guard Kevin Zeitler on a one-year deal and left tackle Dan Moore on a four-year contract. While Ward’s protection should be improved, and the running game is solid with Tony Pollard coming off a 1,000-yard season, the receivers are lacking.
Calvin Ridley came over last free-agency period on a four-year, $92 million deal and posted 1,017 yards and four touchdowns despite quarterback Will Levis struggling. Beyond Ridley, Ward will have veterans Tyler Lockett and Van Jefferson, both of whom are supporting role players at this point in their careers.
Like Fields, Wilson joins his third team in as many years, and he’s also in the Big Apple.
Wilson took over for Fields in Week 7 in Pittsburgh last season and threw for 2,482 yards and 16 touchdowns. However, the Steelers struggled against good teams, losing their final five games to the Eagles, Chiefs, Bengals and Ravens twice, including the playoffs.
With the Giants, Wilson has a moon-ball target in Malik Nabers, who earned Pro Bowl honors as a rookie with 109 receptions, 1,204 yards and seven touchdowns. There are questions abound otherwise, with Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton, who combined for 1,272 yards last year. Wilson is also playing behind a leaky offensive line, which allowed 48 sacks in 2024, tied for the 11th-most.
If we’re arguing about whether Jones or Anthony Richardson will start more games for the Colts in 2025, give me Jones.
The former Giant gives third-year coach Shane Steichen three things he loves: mobility, accuracy and an aversion to turnovers. In New York, Jones averaged 31.1 rushing yards per game along with only 47 interceptions across six years. He also completed 64.1% of his attempts. Richardson has thrown 13 interceptions in 15 games with a 50.6 completion rate in two seasons.
Sneakily, Jones might be solid in Indianapolis. Steichen is an excellent play designer, using motion and leverage to create space. The Colts also have a terrific back in Jonathan Taylor, who is coming off a year with 1,431 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, and two quality receivers in Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce. They also have a first-round tight end in Tyler Warren, who caught a nation-high 104 passes for 1,233 yards and eight scores for Penn State.
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold
Sam Darnold takes over for Geno Smith after a breakthrough season in Minnesota. / Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images
Darnold was terrific for the Vikings, but that might not be the case with the Seahawks.
In Minnesota, Darnold was buoyed by the league’s best receiver and a quarterback whisperer in coach Kevin O’Connell, to say nothing of Minnesota’s ground game led by 1,000-yard back Aaron Jones. In Seattle, Darnold has a defensive-minded coach in Mike Macdonald, one significant receiving weapon in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and a question mark in the talented but oft-injured Cooper Kupp.
Darnold has played seven NFL seasons and been subpar in six of them. Minnesota then provided him with a perfect situation. The Seahawks aren't bereft of talent, but they also have questions along the interior offensive line, wide receiver depth, and whether he can star without O’Connell calling the plays.
Two things are true about Young: He hasn’t been good, but he’s getting better.
After being benched before Week 3 after two awful outings, Young got his job back before Week 8 and started to show why he was the No. 1 pick in the draft two years ago. The former Alabama star finished the season with 2,104 passing yards and 15 touchdowns with six interceptions across his final 10 starts.
Young has a second year with coach Dave Canales and a first-round receiver in Tetairoa McMillan to accompany a 1,000-yard back in Chuba Hubbard and veteran wideout Adam Thielen, who had 615 receiving yards and five touchdowns in 10 games last season.
This might seem low for Nix, who came into the NFL as a rookie with relatively low expectations before leading Denver to the playoffs.
In 2024, Nix threw for 3,775 yards and 29 touchdowns despite having only receiver Courtland Sutton and little else in the passing game. Entering his second year, Nix will be relying heavily on fellow sophomores Devaughn Vele and Troy Franklin, a pair of young wideouts who have flashed. Vele is especially intriguing, having caught 41 passes for 475 yards and three scores.
Still, there are questions. Nix played well at times, evidenced by having a passer rating of 100.0 or better in five of his final eight regular-season games. However, the Broncos are still Sutton-or-bust in terms of proven big-time weapons.
Finally, Nix struggled against good teams. When facing playoff-bound squads (excluding Week 18 against the Chiefs’ backups), Denver was 1–5 before being blown out 31–7 by the Bills in the wild-card round.
Even if you’re a believer in Tagovailoa, Miami did nothing to improve this offseason, trading away tight end Jonnu Smith after he posted a career-best 884 yards and eight touchdowns. His departure leaves wideouts Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, who, while great, are the only source of reliable receiving yardage. Additionally, Hill could be traded if Miami starts slow, as his cap hit is an absurd $51.8 million in 2026 (the Dolphins would save $39.1 million with a trade).
The other looming issue is Miami’s line and Tagovailoa staying healthy behind it. Having sustained three documented concussions in the NFL, the former Alabama star is always a health risk. His front isn’t helping matters with left tackle Patrick Paul having three pro starts to his credit, and the guards being rookie Jonah Savaiianea and free agent veteran James Daniels.
Tagovailoa is accurate, having led the league in 2025 with a 72.9% completion rate. However, injuries and a weakened supporting cast are major problems.
Smith enters the season much better than the 22nd-best quarterback. He may not exit it as such.
The Raiders are rebuilding behind coach Peter Carroll and Smith, having acquired the 34-year-old from the Seahawks for a third-round pick. Smith joins his fifth team with the hopes of revitalizing Las Vegas, but it won’t be easy considering the ample issues facing him.
The Raiders have questions on the outside. While second-year tight end Brock Bowers is coming off the best rookie campaign ever at his position with 1,194 yards to earn First-Team All-Pro honors, the receivers are Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker and rookie Jack Bech. Meyers had the first 1,000-yard campaign of his career in 2024, but that also took 129 targets.
Factor in an offensive line that allowed 50 sacks last season, which ranked tied for seventh-most, and Smith could have trouble succeeding in Sin City.
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers struggled with the Jets in 2024 despite having talent around him. / Philip G. Pavely-Imagn Images
Rodgers is the ultimate enigma, on and off the field.
At 41 years old, Rodgers joins the Steelers in hopes of leading them to their first playoff victory since 2016. Last year with the Jets, the four-time MVP struggled despite having receivers Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams, throwing for 300 yards only once while posting a QBR of 48.0.
In Pittsburgh, Rodgers will enjoy a more stable organization led by coach Mike Tomlin, but questions remain about how he’ll mesh with offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. Smith prefers motion and the quarterback under center more often than most. Rodgers has long eschewed motion and prefers to be in the shotgun. How the two marry their preferences could be key.
Then there’s the question of whether Rodgers has enough talent around him. The Steelers traded for a star receiver in DK Metcalf this offseason, but also dealt away George Pickens. If Metcalf is blanketed, look for ample checkdowns with tight ends Pat Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith seeing plenty of targets.
Entering his second season, Penix will be taking over the full-time starting role.
Penix was a shocking pick by the Falcons at No. 9 last spring, not because of where he was selected in the draft but rather the team that took him. And while Kirk Cousins and his $180 million deal remain on the roster, Penix now leads a team with real talent on offense, led by 1,000-yard receiver Drake London and Pro Bowl running back Bijan Robinson.
Penix made only three starts last season, but showed flashes including his 312-yard performance in Week 18 against the Panthers. A key factor for Penix will be the play of tight end Kyle Pitts, who will be entering the final year of his rookie contract. Pitts has disappointed since his 1,000-yard rookie campaign, with only 1,625 receiving yards over the past three years.
If Penix can find a rapport with Pitts, both he and the Falcons could take wing.
Williams entered the league as the No. 1 pick, but under rare circumstances. Coming off a seven-win season, the Bears traded with the Panthers to move up, selecting Williams and making many believe they were immediate contenders.
Instead, Chicago won five games, and Williams was inconsistent, throwing 20 touchdowns but also taking a league-worst 68 sacks. In the offseason, the Bears revamped their offensive line, bringing in guards Jonah Jackson and All-Pro Joe Thuney, along with center Drew Dalman. They also used their first two draft picks on tight end Colston Loveland and wideout Luther Burden III.
Offensive whiz Ben Johnson comes over from the Lions, taking over for the fired Matt Eberflus. Johnson served as offensive coordinator for three years in Detroit, and his offenses ranked fourth, third and second, respectively.
With an offensive-minded coach, better skill-position talent and a vastly improved line, Williams should be improved in 2025.
Murray was good last year, but if he has a similar campaign, will that be enough to help Arizona into the playoffs?
In his first healthy season under coordinator Drew Petzing, Murray threw for 3,851 yards and 21 touchdowns while rushing for 572 yards and another five scores. Although the offensive line doesn’t have household names, the unit allowed a 5.2% sack rate, fifth-best in the league. Plenty of that is also due to Murray’s legs, with him scrambling 42 times, eighth-most in the NFL.
Surrounded by Pro Bowl tight end Trey McBride, 1,000-yard running back James Conner and second-year receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., the Cardinals have talent around Murray. If he can stay healthy, he can throw for 4,000 yards for the first time in his career.
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy
Brock Purdy signed a five-year extension in the offseason. / D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images
San Francisco is still talented, but the roster is concerning. The offensive line is relying on 37-year-old Trent Williams to be healthy and elite, especially after losing guard Aaron Banks to the Packers.
At the skill positions, receiver Brandon Aiyuk might be unavailable early as he returns from a torn ACL, and Deebo Samuel was traded to the Commanders in the offseason. Meanwhile, running back Christian McCaffrey is coming off a season in which Achilles ailments allowed him to play only four games, tight end George Kittle will turn 32 in October and slot receiver Jauan Jennings wants to be extended or traded.
Purdy, who received a massive contract extension in the offseason, has a ton of questions swirling around him and if things aren’t perfect, then what? Last year, the 49ers struggled to stay healthy with McCaffrey, Kittle, Samuel and Aiyuk missing 27 combined games. Without elite weapons, Purdy threw for 3,864 yards, 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. That’s the epitome of average.
Two years ago, Prescott was the MVP-runner up to Lamar Jackson while leading the NFL with 36 touchdown passes. Last season, he played eight games before tearing his hamstring, and threw for only 1,978 yards and 11 touchdowns with eight interceptions.
Time is ticking for Prescott, who will turn 32 on July 29. The Cowboys traded for mercurial receiver George Pickens to pair with CeeDee Lamb, and bolstered the backfield by signing Javonte Williams to spell Rico Dowdle. In 2024, Pickens caught 59 passes for 900 yards and three scores, while Williams rushed for 513 yards on 3.7 yards per carry.
The talent around Prescott is reasonably deep, but there’s also a new head coach in Brian Schottenheimer after his promotion from offensive coordinator. Schottenheimer replaced the offensive-minded Mike McCarthy, so how much will change?
For Prescott, a middling season could lead to an ugly winter. His 2026 cap hit is an enormous $74 million, and Dallas doesn’t have many ways to escape it without pushing money down the road. If the Cowboys struggle offensively this season, there will be plenty of screaming about his contract being an albatross.
What to make of Love? Depends on your perspective.
Last year, he was limited to 15 games because of a Week 1 knee injury against the Eagles. Still, he posted 3,389 yards and 25 touchdown passes while seeing both his yards per attempt (8.0) and touchdown percentage (5.9%) improve over the previous season. However, his interception rate (2.6%) also rose while he rushed for just 83 yards after posting 247 yards in 2024.
In the offseason, Green Bay general manager Brian Gutekunst added a first-round receiver in Matthew Golden from Texas, who joins a horde of talented wideouts, including Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks. Yet the question remains: Who is the star of this group?
There might not be a quarterback this season with a bigger range of outcomes than Love.
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye
Drake Maye will have better skill-position talent around him this season. / Eric Canha-Imagn Images
As a rookie, Maye threw for 2,276 yards and 15 touchdowns in 13 games (12 starts) while being saddled with a receiving corps led by Demario Douglas and Keyshon Boutte alongside a one-and-done coach in Jerod Mayo.
Maye now has Mike Vrabel on the sideline, and more importantly, Josh McDaniels as his offensive coordinator. McDaniels is a six-time Super Bowl champion who was in New England when Tom Brady was coming of age in the early 2000s. Maye should also benefit from a host of rookies, including left tackle Will Campbell, running back TreVeyon Henderson, receiver Kyle Williams and center Jared Wilson, all top-95 picks.
Factor in the signings of receivers Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins, and the Patriots have an offense capable of helping Maye blossom in his second season.
Lawrence might never live up to the hype he enjoyed as the No. 1 pick in 2021, but he should see an uptick this year.
Lawrence benefits from an offensive-minded coach in Liam Coen, who comes over from the Buccaneers after serving as their offensive coordinator. Additionally, Lawrence will have center Robert Hainsey, who is familiar with Coen’s system from their shared time together in Tampa. That’ll quietly be a massive benefit for the 25-year-old in getting protections right.
Then there’s Travis Hunter, who joins star second-year receiver Brian Thomas Jr. The duo could prove to be one of the league’s best, with Hunter coming off a Heisman Trophy and Thomas having caught 87 passes for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns as a rookie.
Quarterback wins may not be a stat, but the position is still judged by success.
Herbert is long on talent but short on meaningful moments or significant wins. Through five years, his biggest victory is arguably beating the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, in Week 3 of 2021, in a season where Los Angeles didn’t make the playoffs.
Herbert’s stats are excellent. He threw for 5,000 yards in 2021, and over the past two seasons has combined to throw 43 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. Still, he’s 0–2 in the playoffs, with one loss coming after a 27–0 lead was blown to the Jaguars, while another saw him throw four interceptions in a blowout loss to the Texans in last year’s AFC wild-card game.
This season, Herbert has great tackles in Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater. He also has just one meaningful weapon in slot receiver Ladd McConkey. At the same time, the rest of the passing attack consists of rookie wideout Tre Harris (currently holding out), receiver Mike Williams (currently on PUP) and tight end Will Dissly, who is coming off a career year with 481 yards and two scores.
If the Chargers don’t return to the playoffs and Herbert doesn’t put up big numbers, his stock will fall.
Stroud isn’t outside of the top 10 because of his talent, but because the team around him is getting worse.
The Texans lost plenty this offseason, with former All-Pro left tackle Laremy Tunsil and receiver Stefon Diggs leaving via trade and free agency, respectively. Houston general manager Nick Casario also failed to rebuild a horrific offensive line which allowed 54 sacks in 2024, the third-most in the NFL. Caserio dealt Tunsil to the Commanders and replaced him with Cam Robinson, who is on his third team in one year.
Stroud will be throwing to Pro Bowler Nico Collins and a reclamation project in slot receiver Christian Kirk, who was acquired for a 2026 seventh-round pick from the Jaguars after playing just 20 games across the past two seasons.
With the loss of Diggs and the potential season-long absence of Tank Dell after a gruesome leg injury in Week 16 to the Chiefs last year, Houston is thin outside unless rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel contribute immediately.
The Lions will look a bit different this season after losing both coordinators, Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, who the Bears and Jets hired to lead their franchises.
Offensively, Goff remains surrounded by a horde of weapons while playing behind a top-end offensive line. Detroit will need to prove the front’s interior remains stout after losing guard Kevin Zeitler in free agency and All-Pro center Frank Ragnow to retirement. Still, the tackle combination of Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker is elite.
Last year, Goff threw for 4,629 yards and 37 touchdowns, finishing fifth in MVP voting. He should post similar numbers with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams outside, tight end Sam LaPorta working the middle, and an excellent pass-catching back in Jahmyr Gibbs, who nabbed 52-of-63 targets for 517 yards last year.
Who is the last first-time starter to walk into a better situation than McCarthy? The correct answer is likely Patrick Mahomes.
Mahomes had Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, along with an offensive genius in coach Andy Reid. McCarthy gets Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison on the outside and a terrific, do-it-all back in Aaron Jones, coming off a season in which he had 1,546 yards from scrimmage. Meanwhile, Jefferson and Addison combined for 2,408 receiving yards in 2024. Only Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins of the Bengals did better.
Then there’s Kevin O’Connell, who just coaxed Sam Darnold into an MVP-caliber season and 14 wins, as Darnold threw for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns. Factor in the return of Pro Bowl left tackle Christian Darrisaw from his torn ACL/MCL and the additions of guard Will Fries and center Ryan Kelly, and McCarthy could explode onto the scene in Minneapolis.
Hurts didn’t throw for 3,000 yards last season, and most of his 14 rushing touchdowns were on the tush push. Yet when Saquon Barkley was limited to 52 yards on 25 carries in the Super Bowl, Hurts threw for 221 yards on 10.0 yards per attempt with a pair of touchdowns in a 40–22 rout of the Chiefs.
With Hurts, it’s not about the raw statistics. Sure, his 3,533 total yards and 32 touchdowns are impressive, but not overwhelming. He’s not the best player on his offense, not even in his backfield. And yet all Hurts does is play big when the moment demands it, evidenced by his 6–2 playoff record over the past three years, along with nine career fourth-quarter comebacks.
This season, he’ll likely have to do more for Philadelphia to win another title. Barkley is coming off a 2,000-yard rushing campaign, something no player has ever done twice.
The highest yardage total after such a season is 1,491 by Barry Sanders in 1998. Only Sanders and Adrian Peterson even eclipsed 1,300 rushing yards the following year.
Only two years ago, Mayfield appeared finished after a split season with the Panthers and Rams. Now, he’s one of the best in the league after spending years with Canales and Coen as his coordinators.
In 2025, Mayfield will attempt to mesh with Josh Grizzard, who was promoted from pass-game coordinator. Both will have plenty of options to attack with what could become the best receiving quartet in the NFL, including Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan and first-round rookie Emeka Egbuka.
Last year, Evans recorded his 11th consecutive 1,000-yard season, while Godwin recorded 576 yards in seven games before sustaining a season-ending dislocated ankle. McMillan was a stud in his rookie year with 461 yards and eight touchdowns, while Egbuka hauled in 81 receptions for 1,011 yards and 10 touchdowns for the national-champion Buckeyes.
The big concern for Mayfield is the absence of All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs, who had surgery on his right knee in July and could miss the start of the regular season.
Stafford threw for only 3,762 yards and 20 touchdowns last year, but those figures could rise with talent galore around him.
In 2024, Stafford was limited by the absence of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, who missed 11 games between them, including Weeks 3-6 when both were inactive. This autumn, Stafford should have Nacua alongside newcomer Davante Adams, who, despite being 32 years old, posted his fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season while splitting time between the Jets and Raiders last year.
With coach Sean McVay calling the plays and star running back Kyren Williams keeping defenses honest after a pair of 1,000-yard seasons, Stafford should have time and ample weaponry to find.
Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels
With a better offensive line, Jayden Daniels should continue his ascension in 2025. / Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
Daniels was a revelation in D.C. last season, winning Offensive Rookie of the Year while leading Washington to its first NFC championship game appearance since 1991.
Now the trick is to avoid a sophomore slump, something made easier by general manager Adam Peters. Peters traded with the Texans for Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil and drafted his right-side counterpart in Oregon’s Josh Conerly Jr. Peters also added wideout Deebo Samuel in a deal with the 49ers, giving Daniels another option besides Pro Bowler Terry McLaurin.
As a rookie, Daniels threw for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns, ran for 891 yards and six scores, and helped the Commanders to 11 wins. Expectations are higher, and there’s a worry for regression after winning two playoff games as an underdog against the Buccaneers and Lions.
Still, with a better offensive line and Daniels’s added experience, there’s reason to think his continued ascension will offset any fallback.
There’s no question Burrow is one of the four best quarterbacks entering 2025. Last season, he led the NFL with 4,918 passing yards and 43 touchdowns. He also threw the ball a league-high 652 times because his defense allowed 434 points, ranking 25th in the league.
Looking at Cincinnati’s roster, not much is going to change. The defense remains rancid on paper, with only All-Pro defensive end Trey Hendrickson being an above-average player, and he’s currently holding out.
The offense will be Burrow throwing to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, with some targets also finding tight end Mike Gesicki. In 2024, Chase completed the NFL’s triple crown with 127 receptions for 1,708 yards and 18 touchdowns, helping him earn the largest contract for his position in league history. Despite playing in only 12 games, Higgins also posted 911 yards and 10 scores.
Burrow will likely have eye-popping stats again. And through no fault of his own, they also might be indicative of a player pressing to be perfect because he must be.
Over the past two years, nobody has been better in the regular season than Jackson.
In 2023, Jackson won his second NFL MVP, amassing 4,499 total yards and 29 touchdowns, leading the Ravens to the AFC’s top seed. Last year, Jackson had his best season, totaling 5,087 total yards, including his first 4,000-yard passing campaign, while notching 49 touchdowns.
There’s no reason to expect a downturn. Jackson has a terrific supporting cast, including All-Pro running back Derrick Henry, who ran for 1,921 yards and 16 touchdowns a year ago. With Henry and Jackson, Baltimore has the ultimate cheat code in the red zone, consistently putting defenses in a numbers bind on RPOs.
In the passing game, Jackson has Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman and a pair of quality tight ends in Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. Last season, the quartet combined for 2,865 receiving yards and 30 touchdown receptions.
For Jackson and the Ravens, the only hurdle left is the playoffs.
Allen gets the nod over Jackson, largely because he’s proven to do almost as much statistically with far less.
Last season, Buffalo’s starting receivers were Keon Coleman and Mack Hollins, with Khalil Shakir in the slot. Shakir led the team with 821 yards. Coleman caught just 29 passes and Hollins is now on the Patriots after leaving in free agency. At tight end, Dalton Kincaid was a disappointment after a good rookie season, catching 44 passes for 448 yards and two touchdowns.
Still, Allen took home MVP honors because he threw 28 touchdown passes with only six interceptions. He also posted the league’s top QBR at 77.3 and ran for 531 yards, 12 touchdowns and a whopping 52 first downs.
On the plus side, Allen has an elite offensive line. In 2024, he was pressured on 16.4% of his dropbacks, third-best for any quarterback making 11 or more starts. He also has a terrific trio of backs to work with led by James Cook, who rushed for 1,009 yards and an NFL-best 16 touchdowns.
Still, if the Bills make a Super Bowl run, it’ll be because Allen was the engine of the offense in all facets.
Mahomes is coming off his worst statistical season of his career, yet he guided the Chiefs to their fifth Super Bowl appearance in six seasons. There are a few reasons to believe he’ll be much better in 2025.
Kansas City was besieged by injury last year, with Rashee Rice and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown being limited to six regular-season games between them. Rice was on a torrid pace before tearing his ACL, catching 24 passes for 288 yards in three games. In the backfield, Isiah Pacheco played only seven games after fracturing his fibula in Week 2. When he returned, Pacheco never looked right, averaging 3.6 yards per carry.
Left tackle was also a revolving door, which saw the Chiefs play Wanya Morris, Kingsley Suamataia, D.J. Humphries and Joe Thuney. In training camp, veteran Jaylon Moore and first-round pick Josh Simmons will battle for the job. With the line constantly in flux, Mahomes was pressured on 23.3% of dropbacks, the ninth-worst rate for a quarterback with at least 300 pass attempts.
This season, the left tackle will be either free-agent signing Jaylon Moore or first-round pick Josh Simmons, while Kansas City. Factoring in the continued maturation of second-year receiver Xavier Worthy after posting nine touchdowns as a rookie, Mahomes should be far more dynamic.