The Broncos no longer have to worry about RJ Harvey’s contract, now that the dominoes of second-round deals fell into place.
Harvey is signed and sealed. And thus, the work to figure out how the running-back workload will be divided between the second-round pick and June signee J.K. Dobbins can begin.
And “divided” is the key word. For in his 17 previous seasons as a head coach, Sean Payton has never had a running back who had more than 288 touches in a season — which, for Mark Ingram in 2017, meant that he had 18 touches per game.
Even when accounting for games lost for injuries, Payton has never had a running back average more than 18.5 carries per game — and that happened only in 2021, the year after Drew Brees retired, when his New Orleans Saints cycled through Jameis Winston, Trevor Siemian, Taysom Hill and Ian Book in a frustrating 9-8 season.
That year, Alvin Kamara had 18.5 carries and 22.1 touches per contest. No Payton running back in his years as a head coach has ever had such a workload. That’s an outlier.
When it’s working, it looks more like it did the previous two seasons, when Kamara and Latavius Murray shared the duties and New Orleans’ offense flourished. In each of those campaigns, Kamara averaged 18 touches in his 15 games played; Murray had 11.3 in his 15 contests.
Most years in Payton’s offenses, there ends up being a clear RB1 and RB2. Only four times in his 17 previous seasons as a head coach was there less than a 2-touches-per-game difference between RB1 and RB2, and that hasn’t happened since 2011.
Last year, the gap from RB1 to RB2 — Javonte Williams to Jaleel McLaughlin — was 2.6 touches per game; Williams averaged 11.2 touches in the 17 games in which he played; McLaughlin had 8.6 during the 16 games in which he took part.
There’s much about which to be excited with Harvey; his burst is exceptional and his vision appears to be top-notch. He showed ample potential as a pass catcher in offseason work; his catch-and-run on a wheel route showed the sort of dynamic potential he possesses.
But pass protection will take some time for him. He has the body type to hold up well, and his background as a quarterback gives him a base from which he can learn to diagnose blitzes and help keep Bo Nix upright.
Dobbins offers more security there, and he remains a dynamic runner. If he stays healthy, he could offer a bit more peace of mind in a RB1 role early, with Harvey having the chance to grow into a larger role as the year progresses.
That said, keep the expectations within reason for Harvey’s production. A timeshare will place a natural cap on his workload, and his final tally of touches may have more to do with Dobbins’ health and whether the six-year running back can avoid the injury misfortune that has caused him to miss more games than he’s played to date.
Adjusted to a 17-game season, the average RB1 for Payton has posted 239 touches a season — which would be 14.1 per game — and the average RB2 has notched 156 — which would translate to 9.2 touches per game.
Keep those numbers in mind when you watch Dobbins and Harvey work together in their first Broncos seasons.
JALEEL McLAUGHLIN: NEVER OVERLOOK HIM
Before looking at the rest of the Broncos’ running backs, McLaughlin merits his own discussion.
He’s at work before sunrise. Few put in more film study. He extracts every drop from his talent and his 5-foot-7, 187-pound body.
And late last year, when the Broncos’ running game became a three-man committee and Payton struggled to figure out how to disperse the carries among a trio, it was McLaughlin who was the most reliable contributor.
The arrival of Dobbins and Harvey and the tweaked kickoff rule could provide McLaughlin a chance to settle into a perfect role: a change-of-pace weapon who gets four to six touches a game — but opportunities that you’ll remember.
And when he checks into the game, opponents will take note. That opens horizons for McLaughlin’s Broncos teammates, as his speed makes him a threat that is ignored at a foe’s peril.
WHO WILL FILL OUT THE BRONCOS’ RB ROOM?
It depends what skill set the Broncos want.
If it’s about power, Audric Estimé probably remains the best bet, although any hopes of gaining traction will be lost if he can’t reduce his fumble rate from last year, a storyline that has been well-detailed and need not be belabored.
If it’s about pass-catching ability, fellow second-year back Blake Watson has the edge, but his problem has been availability. He missed time late during OTAs and saw his start to training camp delayed last year.
Watson made the Broncos roster out of training camp last season, but has largely failed to get untracked, even though Payton raved about his potential during the production meeting prior to the Week 16 Thursday Night Football game last year, as Kirk Herbstreit relayed on the broadcast.
Then, Watson went out and had a nifty red-zone catch to set up an opening-drive touchdown.
For all-around skills — and blocking dependability — Tyler Badie would get the nod.
This being Badie’s fourth year with the Broncos, he is the best blocker among himself, Estimé and Watson, owing to the experience through practice repetitions.
But with Badie, there’s another factor that comes into play with his distance from his draft year: the ability to slip him through to the practice squad.
Chances are, the Broncos would be able to pass him through waivers and sign him to the practice squad to provide depth if so needed, and then could use three elevations on him before returning him to the 53-player roster.
Thus, if needed, the Broncos could play the type of roster-gymnastics game with him that they did with Lil’Jordan Humphrey and fullback Michael Burton last season.
Or, they could simply keep him there as experienced depth, and then if Harvey or Dobbins suffer an injury, Badie would get a game-day jersey and become one of the two primary running backs, returning to a role he was set to have in Week 4 last year before suffering a back injury.
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