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Five factors that will decide if Alexander Isak joins Liverpool on deadline day

A second Liverpool offer for the Newcastle striker could lead to deadline-day dominoes before the window closes at 7pm

Yoane Wissa fired the starting pistol in what could be a gripping final few hours of the transfer window by accusing Brentford of “standing in the way” of a move to Newcastle United.

It felt like a dramatic intervention but in reality it was a move borne out of desperation. Brentford’s stance has barely shifted from the one The i Paper reported way back on 28 July.

It would have taken the Bees to find a replacement to unlock his move to Newcastle, a point proven by Brentford turning down a series of very generous offers for a 29-year-old.

The i Paper can reveal he remains not-for-sale and sources at Newcastle are pessimistic about reviving the deal in the final 24 hours of the transfer window.

So where does that leave Alexander Isak, whose strike action has disrupted Newcastle’s season and – as of Sunday evening – has failed to force a move to Liverpool?

An Isak Is A Rat t-shirt for sale at the It's In Black And White Shop ahead of the Premier League match at St James' Park, Newcastle. Picture date: Monday August 25, 2025. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Owen Humphreys/PA Wire. RESTRICTIONS: EDITORIAL USE ONLY No use with unauthorised audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or "live" services. Online in-match use limited to 120 images, no video emulation. No use in betting, games or single club/league/player publications.

Newcastle fans are unlikely to welcome Isak back to the fold (Photo: PA)

Well, we are into the last gasp of the summer window and – one recruitment executive told The i Paper on Sunday in between calls from agents – that should mean a “huge premium” on any valuation Newcastle had.

“I have seen reports saying Newcastle will do a deal at £120m or whatever,” they said.

“In reality if Liverpool pick the phone up now I’d be saying ‘There’s an extra £50m on what we would have wanted in July because we’ve got one point and not enough time to get another striker in’. But the last day is frantic and I wouldn’t rule anything out.”

And that is where we stand now. No-one willing to rule it out conclusively but, perhaps, time and a few cold, hard truths invading on the assumption Isak would get his move because Newcastle paid a club-record fee for Germany striker Nick Woltemade on Saturday.

For what it’s worth, Liverpool moved quickly to deny a suggestion on Saturday lunchtime from former footballer-turned-pundit Jan Fjortoft that a deal had been agreed. That followed sources saying an attacking addition was not “likely” on Friday.

Newcastle insiders said the club were “happy” to go into the autumn and winter with Isak and Woltemade as their strikers, although plenty of work was going into trying to broker another incoming deal on Sunday. Could that be a second striker to pave the way for Isak?

Here are five factors that will dictate Isak’s future.

The rabbit out of the hat theory

With a deal for either Wissa or Jorgen Strand Larsen, the Wolves striker considered not for sale by his club, looking very difficult at such a late stage it would have to be another curveball from Newcastle’s recruitment team to get things moving.

How likely is that? They managed it with Woltemade so it shouldn’t be ruled out. If the player is good enough and fits the club’s recruitment profile it would be preferable to retaining Isak and ensuring the circus around their star striker extends into the autumn months.

It’s very difficult to keep things under wraps these days. Agents talk and clubs get wind of things. But sometimes no news doesn’t necessarily mean nothing is going on.

STUTTGART, GERMANY - AUGUST 16: Nick Woltemade of Stuttgart looks on during the Franz-Beckenbauer-Supercup 2025 match between VfB Stuttgart and FC Bayern M??nchen at MHPArena on August 16, 2025 in Stuttgart, Germany. (Photo by Helge Prang - GES Sportfoto/Getty Images)

Bayern had multiple offers for Woltemade rejected this summer before Newcastle swooped in (Photo: Getty)

What will PIF do?

The biggest X factor is what Newcastle’s Saudi owners PIF are thinking. Eddie Howe has said repeatedly that he is not at the coalface when it comes to the Isak call, hence why he hasn’t spoken to the player for approaching two weeks.

Instead PIF have taken the lead on decisions around Isak and that comes with unknowns, because they aren’t a fund that tend to signpost their intentions to the wider public. If anything major is to happen at such a late stage, you get the sense it will be PIF driving.

One bid is barely credible

If the sum total of Liverpool’s attempts to sign Isak this summer is one bid of £110m then the saga will feel like a huge anti-climax. That is an offer they must have known would fail and yet it has prompted Isak to burn every bridge at St James’ Park.

We know Michael Edwards will stick to his guns and Liverpool’s consistent recruitment policy is that they will not go over what they believe is market value. But it would still be a major surprise to many in the game if they sat on their hands.

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Newcastle need two strikers

With a whirlwind fixture list in September and now playing catch up in the Premier League, Newcastle cannot afford to sell Isak without bringing in a reinforcement.

Woltemade is a fantastic signing but probably needs a bedding in period. He is potential – and clearly Isak’s successor in the long-term – but they need more and Will Osula does not look ready.

If Newcastle do not have two senior specialist strikers by 7pm on Monday they will be taking a huge gamble – and questions will rightly be asked of those running the club.

Could Liverpool be happy to play the long game?

As unpalatable as it might seem to those at Newcastle who just want the uncertainty to end, retaining Isak will not bring total clarity.

Liverpool won’t be going anywhere and they have form for getting long-term targets in January. Isak – as crazy as it seems – might yet stick with his threat to not play again and resist attempts to re-integrate.

The Reds sit top of the league with nine points from nine. Their need for a striker is not as acute as Newcastle’s.

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