Nikola Jovic’s encouraging play for the Serbian National team during the ongoing EuroBasket tournament, combined with Kel’el Ware’s uneven play early in summer league, has created a summer talking point:
Would Miami be better off starting Jovic alongside Bam Adebayo, and bringing Ware off the bench?
The data suggests not.
Though the final eight games of the Heat’s 10-game losing streak last spring, as well as the 121-point playoff drubbing against Cleveland, featured a Ware/Adebayo starting power rotation, their overall partnership was a positive.
When they were on the floor together in the regular season, the Heat outscored opponents by 44 points in 541 minutes. Among two-man lineups featuring Adebayo, the Heat had a better plus-minus only when Adebayo played alongside Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler or Davion Mitchell.
What’s more, the Heat shot 49.1 percent from the field and 40.9 percent on threes when Adebayo played alongside Ware.
Those numbers are much higher than Miami’s overall 46.5 season shooting percentage and 36.7 percentage on threes.
Adebayo told me last March that Ware starting alongside him “gave me more energy to play offense. I’m not in every pick-and-roll. Obviously, he’s guarding the five [the center]. A lot of four men [power forwards] don’t and do the things that fives do. For me, it definitely let a load off me where I definitely could focus more on scoring.”
In his first 40 games last season, without Ware starting, Adebayo averaged 15.7 points. His scoring topped 20 points per game with Ware starting alongside him.
By comparison, the Adebayo/Jovic lineups were not especially effective. When those two played together last season, Miami was outscored by 24 points in 688 regular-season minutes and shot just 44.6 percent from the field and 35.8 percent on threes.
Among all Heat two-man combinations that logged at least 680 minutes together last season, only five tandems had a worse plus/minus than Adebayo/Jovic.
Those five pairings: Adebayo/Jaime Jaquez Jr. (minus 126), Herro/Jaquez (minus 120), Terry Rozier/Adebayo (minus 97), Rozier/Jaquez (minus 87) and Rozier/Herro (minus 70).
The upshot of starting Jovic would be injecting another ball-handler, who can push the ball downcourt, in a starting group that likely won’t feature a quintessential point guard (provided Norman Powell starts alongside Herro).
It also would give the Heat a natural center (Ware) off the bench, something the roster now lacks beyond two-way contract player Vlad Golden.
But the metrics suggest sticking with Ware and Adebayo together, at least to start the season. If it doesn’t work, Jovic gives Spoelstra another interesting option.
A veteran NBA scout who previously coached in the league said he would lean toward continuing to start Ware with Adebayo but said it’s not a no-brainer and that Spoelstra needs to take a fresh look at both pairings.
“Ware gives Bam the ability to switch and then you have shot blocking component and rebounding,” the scout said. “Bam wins most of his matchups at the four. You can see if you’re Spo whether Ware can switch and play some of the range shooting fours. That’s the question for me.
“I think Ware is going to start, but I think Jovic is going to get an opportunity to compete with him. How they play in training camp should be considered. After a stretch of games into the season, you can decide.”
To Ware’s credit, he responded well in Las Vegas after Spoelstra implored him to show more professionalism. But high motor needs to be an every-night-thing, not only a response when admonished by the coach.
Who’s left
The Heat, at some point, likely will add another power rotation player, but it might not happen until December, when the team can sign a 15th player without fear of surpassing the luxury tax line.
Veteran free agent power forward/centers who remain unsigned include Precious Achiuwa, Kai Jones (who worked out for the Heat last month), Trey Lyles, Bol Bol, Thomas Bryant, Al Horford, Taj Gibson, James Johnson, De’Andre Jordan, Alex Len, Micah Potter and Tristan Thompson.
Scrimmage set
The Heat’s annual Red, White & Pink Game, an open intrasquad scrimmage benefiting cancer care and research at Baptist Health Miami Cancer Institute, will be held Oct. 15 at 6:30 p.m. at Kaseya Center. Unlike past years, the event will not precede the Heat’s preseason schedule but instead will follow five of the Heat’s exhibition games.
The reason for that is that the Heat will travel straight from training camp in Boca Raton to a preseason game against Orlando in Puerto Rico on Oct. 4.
Tickets for the scrimmage were put on sale Tuesday morning at HEAT.com/RedWhitePink, at $10 each, with a limit of eight per transaction. There also will be $5 parking charge.
Tickets already has available for regular-season games. The Heat opens Oct. 22 at Orlando before playing its home opener on Oct. 26 against the Knicks. The preseason home schedule includes games on Oct. 6 against Milwaukee, Oct. 8 against San Antonio and Oct. 17 vs. Memphis.
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