What do Allie Sherman, Don Shula, and Joe Gibbs all have in common?
They have all won back-to-back AP Coach of the Year honors.
Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell is trying to join that elite company this season. However, Sherman, Shula, and Gibbs have one thing all three have in common that KOC is lacking: at least one trip to the championship game during the season in which they won the award.
The only season one of these coaches won the award without making the championship game would be Shula’s 1967 season with the Baltimore Colts, who missed the playoffs altogether. Shula shared the award with George Allen that season, the only time two coaches tied for the award.
While every Vikings fan wants to see them reach the title game, the NFC North will be one of the toughest divisions in the league, and the NFC playoffs will be a gauntlet.
The more likely scenario is that this team misses the playoffs. If you ask the sportsbooks in Vegas, they have the Vikings at a -110 split on whether the team will or won’t make the playoffs.
Fans probably hope the Vikings enter the season with better odds of making the postseason. Still, a team missing the playoffs can have a coach of the year. In 1990, Jimmie Johnson won the award while coaching a team that went 7-9.
How could KOC win COTY if the team misses the playoffs?
Replicate last season
Vegas didn’t expect last season’s Vikings to do much, if anything at all. Before the season, oddsmakers set their over-under at 6.5, two games lower than their current 8.5.
In a league that prioritizes the quarterback and is always focused on what a player has done lately, the Vikings didn’t enter the 2024 season with a sure thing at quarterback. After J.J. McCarthy suffered a season-ending knee injury before the season started, Sam Darnold became the de facto quarterback for the entire season.
However, as O’Connell has said, “Organizations fail young quarterbacks, not quarterbacks failing organizations.”
He backed up his assertion by making Sam Darnold look like a viable MVP candidate, meaningfully contributing to Darnold’s resurgence.
As we enter the J.J. McCarthy era, we’re hearing a lot of the same chatter. McCarthy may have been the 10th pick in the draft two years ago, but he has yet to prove anything with talent all around him. Jordan Addison will miss the first three games of the season due to suspension. Still, that doesn’t change the fact that this is an incredibly talented team. That 1-0 thinking that carried the team last season will definitely need to be on display, for better or worse, if KOC wants to do the improbable.
Rely on what he’s known for
O’Connell’s strength lies in developing quarterbacks and maximizing their potential, regardless of who is under center… He has had five different quarterbacks play the position since becoming the head coach for the Vikings in 2022. All except Jaren Hall have at least one win in a game they started for O’Connell.
KOC has become known as the “Quarterback Whisperer” due to this uncanny ability to know exactly what makes the man under center play to the best of their abilities.
A young McCarthy will learn a great deal under KOC’s direction. While it could lead to another playoff berth for the Vikings, anything can happen, especially with someone unproven in the NFL.
Staying competitive
The main way O’Connell becomes a two-time Coach of the Year is by keeping this team competitive throughout the season. If the Vikings miss the playoffs and are not competitive at all, O’Connell won’t be Coach of the Year.
It is the NFL, and anything can happen on any given Sunday. For all we know, the New Orleans Saints could beat the Buffalo Bills in Week 4 of the season.
Suppose the Vikings prove that, through the ups and downs, they just happened to have ended up on the wrong side of one-score games. While unlikely, given his current 26-9 record in said games, the chance that there is some regression to .500 should be considered. Then it’s not completely out of the question for O’Connell to be a two-time award winner; it just makes the feat harder to accomplish.
The Vikings could have a winning record but miss the playoffs in a tie-breaking scenario or a competitive NFC, like the 10-7 Seattle Seahawks last year. In that case, the voters should still consider KOC for Coach of the Year.
The Vikings would be regressing by missing the playoffs, making it harder for O’Connell to win the award. Still, there’s something to be said for a coach who can lead a team to its third winning record in four seasons with six different starting quarterbacks.
If O’Connell can replicate some of his success from last season, continue doing what he is known for, and keep this team competitive, there is no reason to believe that this team misses the playoffs. If the Vikings make the playoffs, KOC should still be considered for this prestigious award.
Suppose KOC wins it. Then, he could make history by being the first ever to win Coach of the Year in back-to-back years, without reaching the championship game. Feels oddly fitting for the Vikings, who always win in the regular season but have yet to win it all.