As I’ve done for the past several years, here are my predictions for the Pittsburgh Steelers’ 2025 season. Some bold, some not so bold, but here are ten things I think we’ll see and learn about this team by the time the year wraps up. My final season prediction is also tucked in at the bottom.
#### 1\. OT Troy Fautanu Will Be Worth The Wait
A rookie year lost due to injury, Fautanu makes up one-fifth of an offensive line that must take significant steps forward. I’m not confident enough to predict the entire unit will, but Fautanu will do his part. Pittsburgh has raved about him since drafting him in the first round of last year. It was impossible to judge him a year ago, when he missed most of the preseason with an MCL sprain and nearly all of the regular season with a dislocated kneecap.
Healthy for his second and first full lap around the NFL track, Fautanu crushed the preseason. He looked like a veteran, wise beyond his years, with advanced sets and hand usage and placement. It’ll be hard to beat him around the edge. Fautanu still looks better in pass protection than in the run game, and I don’t think he’ll be an elite run blocker, but a very good one and a rising star in the trenches.
#### 2\. Derrick Harmon Will Need Time To Catch Moving Train
I was as excited as anyone about Pittsburgh drafting Oregon DL Derrick Harmon, one of the first names we suggested as a Steelers’ first-round target. He was enjoying a solid preseason before spraining his MCL. Now, he’s fighting to get healthy and may not return until Week Three or Four. He’ll return and start at some point, but it’s fair to wonder how behind he’ll be once that time comes.
He just turned 22, had just one big year in college, and has gone through a mentally and emotionally rough season with the death of his mother on top of this injury. That can slow anyone down. Harmon can and will flash, but his overall impact might be more muted than expected. I projected he’ll finish with 2.5 sacks.
#### 3\. No Clear No. 2 Will Emerge
Who is No. 2? That’s the No. 1 question asked of this offense, and that will remain throughout the year. That doesn’t mean disaster. It just means the targets behind WR DK Metcalf will be chopped up. Calvin Austin III, Roman Wilson, Pat Freiermuth, and Jonnu Smith will all catch their fair share and make plays. Their production just might hit-and-miss depending on both game plans – who the Steelers want to get the ball to in a given week and who the defense wants to take away – along with random chance.
It’s possible Metcalf catches 70-80 passes, and the next-closest player only hauls in 45. That’s the Arthur Smith offense and how this group behind Metcalf has been constructed.
#### 4\. Defensive Scheme Will Feel Different
Pittsburgh spent the end of last year and the offseason talking the talk. The defense must change. They’ll walk the walk. There will be more sim pressures, more inside linebacker rushes, more defensive backs coming off the edge (Jalen Ramsey especially), and more T.J. Watt aligning in different places. How well it ties together is hard to predict. The talent is there. The cohesiveness will grow throughout the season.
Even with the same core defensive coaches still in place, Mike Tomlin and Teryl Austin, this unit won’t be the same.
#### 5\. End Of Season Slate Will Be Hard – But More Manageable Than 2024
Paper schedules are fruitless for predicting. So much can and will change this season. But on paper, the end-of-the-season schedule looks tougher than the start: the Baltimore Ravens (twice), Buffalo Bills, and Detroit Lions over the final six games. No matter how 2025 surprises us, that will not be easy. There’s a silver lining. One reason why last year’s schedule was so hard was because of how condensed it was—repeated short weeks that made preparing more challenging. Both teams had to deal with it, but it’s a lot harder on the team making mistakes and not having practice reps to course correct.
This time, the Steelers don’t have never-ending short weeks. Currently, the only shortened week is a Monday-to-Sunday slate from the Miami Dolphins to the Detroit Lions (and potentially a short Week 18, with the schedule TBD until one week prior). Logistically, it’ll be easier to handle that than the three games in 10 days or five in 25 days like last December.
#### 6\. Payton Wilson Breaks Out
I’ve been [high on Payton Wilson all offseason](https://x.com/Alex_Kozora/status/1927160488812581360), and nothing from the summer told me to pump the brakes. Wilson is poised to take on a full-time role after splitting reps as a rookie, though Patrick Queen will be the lone linebacker in dime packages. It’s fair to wonder how much dime Pittsburgh will use. Perhaps Wilson, the great athlete he is, simply won’t leave the field either.
Talent was never Wilson’s issue. Health is why he fell in the 2024 NFL Draft. So far, he’s been healthy as an ox in Pittsburgh, and the Steelers will keep reaping those rewards.
#### 7\. DK Metcalf Will Be The AJ Brown Of Arthur Smith’s Offense
Pittsburgh aggressively made the move for Metcalf, and he’ll be put to good use. In 2019 and 2020, as offensive coordinator for the Tennessee Titans, AJ Brown was his alpha. In Pittsburgh, that’s Metcalf. Big, strong, physical, playmakers after the catch, and willing to block, the two are similar in frame and style.
In 2020, Brown finished with a 75/1,075/11 line. Metcalf’s numbers will look similar, though his touchdowns probably won’t be quite as gaudy.
#### 8\. More Kenneth Gainwell, Less Kaleb Johnson To Begin The Year
[My recent stat projections](https://steelersdepot.com/2025/09/2025-pittsburgh-steelers-stat-predictions/) may have been a little too generous to Johnson and not enough to Gainwell. Johnson will get his chances, but he’s a relatively raw rookie who hasn’t earned the trust of the coaching staff or Aaron Rodgers. That will limit his reps, especially early in the season.
Gainwell is a versatile back who can catch, run, and return. Pittsburgh will find ways to get him the ball. In the preseason, Gainwell was protected nearly as much as Warren was, and the depth chart, even taken with a grain of salt, has Gainwell ahead of Johnson. Out of the gate, Gainwell could serve as the No. 2 back who will split reps with Johnson as Warren sits in pole position.
#### 9\. Lack Of O-Line Depth Will Become Apparent
If there’s an area of weakness on this roster, it’s offensive line depth—even more than wide receiver. Pittsburgh’s starting five has questions, but the depth behind them is even weaker. Calvin Anderson, Max Scharping, Ryan McCollum, Spencer Anderson, and Andrus Peat are the Steelers’ backups.
_I’m nervous._
Imagine if Pittsburgh suffers the same o-line injuries as a year ago. Losing the starting right guard for most of the year and losing the starting right tackle for nearly all of it. The starting left guard going down for the first month. The starting center lost for a few weeks. The Steelers simply couldn’t sustain that. They can’t handle even _half_ those things happening. Few teams have good offensive line depth, but few teams have worse depth than Pittsburgh. The starters must play well. They must also stay healthy.
#### 10\. Steelers Finally Get Over The Playoff Hump
This isn’t homerism either. Last year, I predicted Pittsburgh would fall short. In 2023, I predicted they’d miss the playoffs entirely. This year, I’m changing my tune. A revamped front seven, a stronger and deeper cornerback room than there’s been in years, an offensive line with the talent, and a quarterback who can still get it done. A tough conference and division won’t make anything easy, but Pittsburgh finishes the year 10-7, makes the playoffs, and yes, finally and mercifully, wins in the Wild Card round.
Don’t hang the banner for it. But it’s the hurdle Pittsburgh hasn’t gotten past. That’ll change in January.