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Market drivers

Arsenal have had an unprecedented summer transfer window with Mosquera, Hincapie, Eze, Arrizabalaga, Gyokeres, Norgaard, Madueke and Zubimendi coming into the senior first team squad. It’s certainly the biggest influx of players I can ever recall in one summer transfer window. I wanted to break down some of the reasons that I think Arsenal have channelled their inner Harry Redknapp through a car window this summer.

Quiet previous windows

Arsenal didn’t quite do what they needed to do last summer and in January, they did nothing at all. (Well, nothing tangible). Quite simply, there was a backlog to work through this summer. I think last summer was something of a ‘PSR summer’ with all the reporting suggesting that the club were operating something close to a ‘one in one out’ policy.

Mikel Merino’s signing was telegraphed for months but wasn’t completed until Emile Smith Rowe’s move to Fulham was completed. It also meant that Arsenal kicked a few sizeable cans down the road. They went into last season with Jorginho and Thomas Partey as their options in the deepest midfield position and both were always likely to leave this summer.

In attack, Arsenal have been overdue a surgery for some time and, again, they probably did around two to three windows worth of backlogged shopping by bringing in Gyokeres, Eze and Madueke to reinforce the forward line. The market for attackers last summer was very much a car boot sale.

An unwanted Raheem Sterling here, an unloved Jadon Sancho there, a partially damaged Federico Chiesa in the bargain bin. This summer, that plug has been unclogged and Gyokeres, Sesko, Isak, Ekitike, Pedro, Delap, Simons, Cunha, Wissa, Madueke, Eze and Mbuemo have all catapulted to new clubs.

A new suit

A Berta pick, an Arteta pick

As much as last summer was probably a ‘PSR summer’ for Arsenal, it was also a summer that saw the Technical Director serving his notice. And listen, most of you reading this will have served out your notice at a place of work before and you will likely relate to not quite giving it your all.

With Edu not longed for the Arsenal boardroom, I think we maybe saw some corners cut last summer. Whereas this time around, new Technical Director Andrea Berta arrived in March. He had a significant in-tray (and it’s not clear yet, there are some existing contracts to see to) and probably a desire to impress. As much as you might start rolling in at 0920 and catching a look at your phone every half an hour when serving your notice, when you just start a new job; you tend to be the one making the tea for everyone.

New order?

Whisper it VERY quietly, but Manchester City look a little vulnerable. It might be a mirage, of course. But they were vulnerable last season and didn’t enjoy a brilliant Club World Cup. There are some questions over whether they players they have brought in over the last two years match up to the standards of de Bruyne, David Silva, Vincent Kompany and Gundogan at their respective peaks.

Some of the players they have brought in in 2025 might well ascend to that level, of course. But it’s certainly a question mark. I don’t think it’s a huge coincidence that Arsenal and Liverpool have bashed the button hard this summer. I think both clubs sense there is at least a chance that it might not take 100 points to win the league anymore and there is a sense, to me, that they are both preparing for that possibility.

PSR

PSR, at its core, actively encourages player trading. The Premier League’s vast broadcast income is the single biggest reason that there was more spending on transfers in England than in Spain, Germany and France combined this summer. However, PSR isn’t really about your profit and loss column per se, it is about bookkeeping.

The property market thrives on constant turnover, of cash in and out of the system at a persistent rate. PSR, with its emphasis on amortisation, has a similar effect. In a curious way, the £105m loss limit over three seasons seems to have become less a deterrent and more a target for clubs to hit. Every pound or penny short they are of that limit unwittingly encourages them to spend against that ceiling.

Inflation of salaries and transfer fees means clubs are much more easily crashing up against this cost control, which also encourages the market. It means that clubs are more willing to sell or trade players than they were in the era before hyper inflation meant PSR limits were far more likely to be breached. Arsenal have operated in a far more vibrant market where lots of big clubs (as well as the newly promoted clubs) have been very busy.

Correction

I would weight injuries as somewhere close to 90% of the reason that Arsenal finished such a distant 2nd in the league table last season. I suspect a constrained summer in 2024 underestimated the impact of an extra two Champions League group games. League Cup draws fell nicely for Arsenal until a damaging two legged semi-final with Newcastle too.

In the away leg of that semi-final, Gabriel Martinelli sustained a hamstring injury, while Kai Havertz tore his hamstring just a few days later. The Gunners played nine games in January and it’s clear the squad could not absorb the schedule. I was hopeful that Arsenal would reflect and do everything in their power to reduce the chances of the same issues recurring this season- or at least be better equipped to deal with them if they did.

We know that Arteta tries to correct issues every summer. For instance, in 2022-23, when a tendency to be dragged into basketball games damaged Arsenal’s title bid, he brought in Declan Rice, Kai Havertz and David Raya and focused on a far more precise, controlled brand of football. He probably overcorrected in that sense (though Arsenal did get 89 points and score 91 goals in 2023-24).

Everybody knew Arsenal’s attack needed some renovation this summer, but so too did the squad depth. The likes of Kepa, Norgaard, Madueke, Mosquera and Hincapie replace unfancied and untrusted squad players like Nelson, Vieira, Zinchenko, Jorginho, Sterling and Neto. Basically, there was a lot to do; an attack to renovate, a midfield to replace and squad depth to build with a new broom behind the scenes and a vibrant marketplace.

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