Philadelphia Eagles: Over 11.5 Wins
jalen carter and the eagles
Dec 15, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter (98) and defensive tackle Jordan Davis (90) and cornerback Kelee Ringo (22) walk off the field together after a victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
The defending Super Bowl Champions have the highest projected win total in the NFC. This should not come as a surprise. Despite losing several notable players in free agency, the Eagles still have arguably the best roster in the NFL. They definitively have the best offensive line and defensive line in the NFL, making them a nightmare for opposing teams to match up with. Take the over.
Washington Commanders: Over 9.5 Wins
washington commanders nfc championship
Jan 26, 2025; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) celebrates after a play against the Philadelphia Eagles during the second half in the NFC Championship game at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
The Washington Commanders were the surprise of the NFL last season when they managed to catapult themselves from 4-13 in 2023 to 12-5 in 2024. In spite of an unclear picture at running back, the Commanders still have a solid roster top to bottom. They also managed to retain Kliff Kingsbury as their offensive coordinator after it was initially believed that he would take a head coaching job somewhere else. Washington should win 10 or more games once again.
Dallas Cowboys: Under 7.5 Wins
Dec 22, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) runs after catching a pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the second quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-Imagn Images
Dec 22, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) runs after catching a pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the second quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-Imagn Images
Let me start by saying that I didn’t expect the Cowboys to be good before they traded away their best defensive player. Now, outside of CeeDee Lamb, this team is completely devoid of playmakers on both sides of the ball. Dallas will still be able to produce some fireworks on offense at times, but that will do little to cover up for the fact that their roster is the weakest that it’s been in quite some time. There is a real chance they finish last in the NFC East.
New York Giants: Over 5.5 Wins
USATSI 24542845 168400517 lowres
Oct 20, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Giants defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II (97) celebrates after a sack during the first half against the Philadelphia Eagles at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
This would be an unequivocal over if the Giants’ schedule wasn’t the toughest in the league. With that being said, I’m still going over. New York has one of the best front sevens in football, adding Abdul Carter to a stacked defensive group that already included Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns, and Kayvon Thibodeaux.
Their offense should also be improved with multiple young playmakers in Malik Nabers and Tyrone Tracy giving them a solid foundation through the air and on the ground. The Giants should be decent whether it’s Russell Wilson or Jaxson Dart under center.
Detroit Lions: Over 9.5 Wins
Oct 20, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) reacts after catching a 35 yard touchdown pass from quarterback Jared Goff (not pictured) against the Minnesota Vikings the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images
Oct 20, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) reacts after catching a 35 yard touchdown pass from quarterback Jared Goff (not pictured) against the Minnesota Vikings the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images
While I don’t expect Detroit to have another 15-win season, an over/under of just 9.5 wins feels a bit too low. The loss of both of their coordinators is the biggest concern surrounding this team, yet that shouldn’t be enough to drop their win total into single digits.
Green Bay Packers: Over 10.5 Wins
USATSI 26817018 168400517 lowres 1
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) hands off the ball to running back Chris Brooks (30) against the Jets during their football game Saturday, August 9, 2025, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
The Packers have a young and talented roster that just got the added boost of bringing in Micah Parsons. And while I still have my questions about Jordan Love, Green Bay’s current situation offers a lot to like. Keep in mind that the Packers are the only team in their division that is not undergoing a change at quarterback, head coach, or coordinator.
Minnesota Vikings: Over 8.5 Wins
Aug 10, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) warms up before the game against the Las Vegas Raiders at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images
Aug 10, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) warms up before the game against the Las Vegas Raiders at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
I’m going to hesitantly take the over with Minnesota despite the fact that I believe they will have pretty significant step back from their 14-win 2024 season. An over/under of just 8.5 shows that the oddsmakers believe this as well. Yet even with the uncertainty surrounding J.J. McCarthy, the Vikings still have an above average roster and an elite head coach in Kevin O’Connell. They should be able to reach nine wins regardless of the tough division.
Chicago Bears: Over 7.5 Wins
USATSI 26871044 168400517 lowres 1
Aug 17, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) throws during the first half against the Buffalo Bills at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images
At 8.5 this is a much tougher decision, but 7.5 makes this a pretty safe over. Chicago made significant upgrades to their offensive line, adding the likes of Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, and Jonah Jackson. These additions speak volumes seeing how Pro Football Focus ranks the Bears as the fourth-best offensive line in the NFL despite allowing a league-high 68 sacks in 2024. The upgraded protection puts Caleb Williams in a much better position to succeed.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over 9.5 Wins
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Cleveland Browns
Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images
The Buccaneers have hovered around the 9 to 10 win mark in both seasons with Baker Mayfield at QB. They have also won the NFC South in both of those seasons. The good news for them is that this division remains the worst division in football and a similar win total will likely be good enough to win it when all is said and done. Tampa still has the best roster in the division and additions such as rookie WR Emeka Egbuka could make a real impact for them from the jump. I’ll cautiously lean towards the over.
Atlanta Falcons: Under 8.5 Wins
USATSI 24543480
Oct 20, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) runs the ball against the Seattle Seahawks in the third quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images
Atlanta has an intriguing collection of offensive weapons headlined by RB Bijan Robinson and WR Drake London. However, the team’s once elite offensive line has now been decimated by the loss of center Drew Dalman to Chicago in free agency, as well as the loss of offensive tackle Kaleb McGary to a season-ending leg injury. Michael Penix will have to show me more before I can believe in this team.
Carolina Panthers: Over 6.5 Wins
Carolina Panthers
Dec 15, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) throws during the second half against the Dallas Cowboys at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images
The Panthers looked like a different team from Week 9 onward last season, as did their quarterback Bryce Young. Carolina went 4-5 to in their final nine games after starting the season 1-7, while Young proved to be one of the more productive and efficient QBs in the NFL during that stretch. It remains a question whether or not the former Heisman Trophy winner can continue that success in 2025 and be the team’s long-term answer under center, but I’ll side with the over due to the mediocrity of the NFC South.
New Orleans Saints: Under 4.5 Wins
USATSI 24483406
Oct 13, 2024; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler (18) hands off to running back Alvin Kamara (41) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second half at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images
Even though the Saints have the lowest projected win total in the entire NFL, under is still the right play. New Orleans has the worst QB room in the league by a mile and a half. They are also severely lacking in offensive weapons, a group that will be led by the now 30-year-old Alvin Kamara and the concussion-prone Chris Olave. On the defensive side of the ball, things aren’t much better. To put it simply, this team is really bad. The Saints are definitely competing with the Browns for the No. 1 overall pick in 2026.
Los Angeles Rams: Over 9.5 Wins
Los Angeles Rams
Dec 12, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) holds onto the ball against the San Francisco 49ers in the fourth quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images
The biggest question surrounding the Rams this season is the health of Matthew Stafford. Stafford was held out during the preseason due to a back injury (although the Rams don’t play their starters in the preseason anyway). Seeing how Stafford is 37 years old and entering his 17th season in the NFL, there are obvious concerns about whether or not his back injury might be a factor at some point during the campaign. However, if Stafford stays upright, the Rams remain the best team in the NFC West and a potential Super Bowl contender.
Seattle Seahawks: Over 8.5 Wins
Seattle Seahawks Sam Darnold
Jun 11, 2025; Renton, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) passes the ball during mini-camp at Virginia Mason Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images
The Seahawks continue to be overlooked. After going 10-7 last season, you could argue that Seattle is better this season. If he plays like he did in Minnesota last season, Sam Darnold will be a clear upgrade at QB over the departed Geno Smith. Seattle’s defense also saw a big improvement last season under Mike Macdonald, who now has a full year of being head coach under his belt. Again, I like the over.
San Francisco 49ers: Under 10.5 Wins
Dec 30, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) during the game against the Detroit Lions at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images
Dec 30, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) during the game against the Detroit Lions at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images
Let’s pump the brakes on San Francisco. First off, the Niners are once again starting off the season with an extensive injury list that includes WR Brandon Aiyuk, who will start the season on the PUP list. Secondly, this team suffered multiple major departures during free agency. Players like LB Dre Greenlaw, CB Charvarius Ward, S Talanoa Hufanga, OT Jaylon Moore, LG Aaron Banks, and more are all gone. They also traded away Deebo Samuel to the Commanders. The truth is that this roster is much different from the team that made the Super Bowl two seasons ago. Bet the under.
Arizona Cardinals: Over 8.5 Wins
Arizona Cardinals, Kyler Murray
Dec 28, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) looks on against the Los Angeles Rams in the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Arizona has a strong case as the most underrated team in the NFL. The Cardinals continue to fly under the radar despite having solid playmakers on both sides of the ball. The team also did an especially good job at bulking up their defense during the offseason, adding EDGE Josh Sweat, DT Dalvin Tomlinson, and LB Akeem Davis-Gaither in free agency. Arizona could be a dark horse to make the playoffs in 2025.