Thus we get to the first roses and thorns of the 2025 season. As a reminder, this is where we look at the top five players from each team and also look at their collective stats on offense and defense to see if we can figure out how each team plans to win on Sunday. We are using PFF scores for the top five players. I went through a tutorial on my last piece. You can access the [tutorial here](/the-value-of-things/70649/value-of-things-anatomy-of-a-bad-trade).
It should be noted that my information on the trade was apparently accurate. I am blaming that on pro football reference as they had the terms reversed for some reason, but as a reporter I should be better. Now, here are the top five players for each team according to PFF. These numbers are all from the 2024 season. Starting in week two we will be looking at the 2025 numbers.
* WR Puka Nacua— 92.5\*
* DE Jared Verse— 89.3
* OT Alaric Jackson— 78.4
* WR Jordan Whittington— 78.3
* OG Kevin Dotson— 78.2
It should be noted that the Rams had a number of very highly rated offensive players right under the top five. Four wide receivers had ratings of 70 or higher including Devante Adams with a 75.8. Matthew Stafford also came in around there as well. So, with four receivers, two lineman, and the quarterback it is pretty clear what the strength of the Rams is.
* WR Nico Collins— 92.3
* DE Will Anderson— 87.8
* DE Danielle Hunter— 84.6
* CB Derek Stingley— 80.4
* QB C.J. Stroud— 80.0
If 80 is the demarcation between good starter and Pro Bowl starter then we see that the Texans had five Pro Bowl type performers from last year’s team. It should be noted that C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Jalen Pitre, and Kamari Lassiter also rated highly. This is obviously going to be a damn good defense. This is not to say that the Rams are a bad football team by any estimate, but how they are 2.5 point favorites in this one is anyone’s best guess. The Texans are clearly the better team on paper.
The 2024 Rams were 24th in rushing yards and really didn’t add much in the rushing game. They have a good stable of backs and Sean McVay likes to run the football, but they aren’t particularly good at it. However, the added DeVante Adams to an offense that was already 10th in the NFL in passing yards. It seems that the path to victory for the Rams will come through the air. This is where having four highly rated receivers will come in handy. Nacua and Adams might be blanketed well by Stingley and Lassiter, but the third and fourth corners will have a challenge on their hand with their other wideouts. The question will be whether Stafford can find those guys before the pass rush comes.
We might have to put an asterisk around the Rams winning this one. They were 20th in passing yards allowed and 22nd in rushing yards allowed. In short, they don’t stop many teams. So, they will need to create turnovers to win this one and that will have to come with pressure on Stroud. There is really only one player playing his same position as last season on the Texans line, so the idea of them getting pressure is not farfetched. The Rams will have to find some way to slow down the run game, so they are not on their heels the whole game.
The Texans offense was definitely not the strength of the team. They were 15th in rushing yards and that included a heavy dose of Joe Mixon. Mixon is not available so the Texans will have to hope Nick Chubb is up to the challenge. The Texans need at least a credible rushing threat to keep the pass rush off. The Texans were 21st in passing yards and have only one core receiver returning. Christian Kirk might get plenty of attention as the Rams blanket Nico Collins. The Iowa State boys might also play a pretty significant role in this one as well.
If you simply look at team rankings across the board, this is the unit that is the most dominant on either side. The Texans were 11th in rushing yards allowed and 6th in passing yards allowed. This makes them already close to a top five defense and they added CGJ and E.J. Speed. This is why I am flummoxed by the Rams being favored in this one. I think there is a very good chance that they still move the ball with the combination of Nacua and Adams, but there is a good chance no one experiences good success against the Texans. If the Texans can shut down the run then it could be a very long day for the Rams.
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