arsenalcore.com

Data expert predicts Viktor Gyokeres’ Arsenal goals number which will shock fans

Viktor Gyokeres has arrived at Arsenal with huge expectations following his £64m move from Sporting CP, but data experts believe his remarkable goal numbers in Portugal will not fully translate to the Premier League.

Gyokeres’ mixed start at Arsenal

Embed from Getty Images

The Swedish striker opened his Arsenal account with a brace in the 5-0 win over Leeds United but cut a frustrated figure against Liverpool on Sunday, failing to register a single shot as the Gunners slipped to a 1-0 defeat. His start has sparked debate over how many goals he can realistically deliver in England.

Ian Graham statistical warning for Gyokeres

Embed from Getty Images

Former Liverpool director of research Ian Graham, now head of Ludonautics, explained on the Men in Blazers podcast that a natural “exchange rate” exists between different leagues in Europe. He suggested that goals scored in Portugal need to be discounted when projecting a player’s output in the Premier League.

“It’s about a 35% discount,” Graham said. “If you just look at raw goals numbers, we guess Gyokeres’ goals per ninety minutes will decrease by about 35%. In reality, it’s a bit more, because Portugal is dominated by three teams, and he didn’t play against one of them since he was at Sporting.”

What that means for Arsenal

Embed from Getty Images

Gyokeres netted a stunning 54 goals in 52 games last season for Sporting. A 35% reduction would still see him score around 35 goals for Arsenal across all competitions. Even with a harsher 50% decrease, he would be on track for 27 goal, numbers only bettered by Robin van Persie in 2011/12.

Keane backs Gyokeres to deliver

Embed from Getty Images

Despite the data-driven caution, pundits like Roy Keane remain convinced Gyokeres will thrive. Speaking on the Stick to Football podcast, Keane predicted the striker would “end up with 20 goals” this season, describing him as an “old-fashioned number nine” who thrives inside the box.

Arsenal supporters may take encouragement from both sides of the debate: even with statistical downgrades, Gyokeres projects as one of the Premier League’s most dangerous forwards this season, potentially the club’s most prolific since Thierry Henry in 2004.