Josh Jacobs (l) Squid Game Characters carrying box(r)
Via © Robert Goddin imagn | Squid Game Netflix
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One of my favorite cliches in sports is referring to the buildup to opening night as the calm before the storm. Sometimes they say we’ve reached the top of the rollercoaster after the slow, steady buildup of the offseason and preseason, and now it’s time for the big drop as the season kicks off. As the Eagles and Cowboys officially launch the 2025 NFL season, there’s a different image in my mind.
For fantasy football players, we’ve taken our stands, planted flags, and drafted all of our teams. Now is the time when that little voice in the back of your head starts whispering, What if Saquon really can wreck the league two years in a row? What if the Dolphins really are a walking time bomb? What if everything I thought is horrifically, hilariously wrong?
This stretch, this calm before the storm, makes me think about Independence Day. I’m not talking about any of the cool parts. We’re like the people on top of the buildings with their signs, welcoming the aliens. Putting a friendly face on humanity, cheering like fools before the inevitable happens.
Better yet we are the pilots in that first helicopter that goes to make contact with the spaceship. We are the Welcome Wagon, floating in the face of annihilation, and we don’t even know it.
Lucky for us, we get a chance to react to whatever is coming our way. But the waves of info we get Thursday night, Friday night, all day Sunday, and Monday night? It always feels like we’re getting blasted by the giant blue beams. All spring and summer information flows one way. It comes from training camp and preseason, we read the reports and follow beat writers, and we digest the information and form our stands for fantasy.
Then, we wait. We wait long enough that we forget that the work is just starting after the draft. Sometimes it’s hard to remember that the game is supposed to be fun.
During opening week, there’s only relief for the calls you get right and bitter despair for the misses. The most important thing to remember is that after the dust settles, we get the chance to lift ourselves from the wreckage.
Waivers, add/drops, trades, they’re all waiting for us.
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Those things can be a pain, but they can help us change our team’s fortunes for the season. Most importantly, going through the weekly routine of the season helps shake off the shell shock that comes with Week 1 of the NFL season. If we want to get to the Will Smith and Jeff Goldblum part, walking through the desert with victory cigars and patting ourselves on the back, we’re going to have to stare into the blue beam every week of the season.
To get there, we have to remember who we have unwavering faith in. Here are the candidates I’ve drafted dozens of times in the past three months. Welcome to Earth.
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Josh Jacobs
As I write, I’m trying to block out the raucous sleepover my kids are hosting. All they’re doing is playing video games, on their Spinal Tap tip, with the volume cranked to 11 and beyond. With all the noise, thinking about Josh Jacobs is soothing.
The Raiders-turned-Packers running back and staple of the late second round and early third round of fantasy drafts. Jacobs was awesome for fantasy last year. He started the season slowly before exploding from Week 7 onward, where he ripped off 20 points in 8 out of 9 games. (Let’s not worry about what he did in championship week. It wasn’t a disaster, but let’s just say he probably wasn’t the player that put you over the top.)
Fantasy football is a game built on chaos. We all know this, yet every summer we convince ourselves that we have any real level of control over our teams. Drafted safe, high-floor players? Treat yourself to Jameson Williams. Swung for the fences with rookies and combustible players? I hope you found balance in Chuba Hubbard, Joe Mixon, or James Conner.
Sleepovers are youthful rites built on chaos. Right now the kids in the house (two 11-year-olds and a 9-year-old) have convinced themselves they really need to cook something they saw on Squid Game.
I have not watched Squid Game and have no idea what the boys are trying to accomplish. I easily could’ve told them no and sent them on to whatever their next idea will be, but I decided to lean into the chaos and help them.
It worked. Their cook took less than five minutes and they got it out of their system and now they’re off playing with toys. Leaning into the chaos, steering into the skid actually worked better than anticipated. Am I actually in control now? Who can say, but the calm that’s settled in the house certainly is comforting.
Does a Josh Jacobs-type of pick provide a false sense of security for fantasy players? Is chasing safe, bankable production a fool’s errand? Oftentimes, yes.
But after revisiting Jacobs’ work last season, I have to say I’ve changed my tune. Any player that can deliver a two-month run above 20 points is not an illusion. Maybe Jacobs is the key to super-charging your team’s floor and upside, especially early in a draft. Somehow, during his career I’ve managed to be on the wrong side nearly each season when it comes to drafting or fading Jacobs.
The boys are back downstairs now asking about cooking up something more complicated than whatever that last thing they made was. They did fine last time and I didn’t really need to interfere. Maybe I should let the kids give this new idea a go, let them build some self-confidence.
What’s the worst that could happen?
Rashee Rice
Yes, he’s suspended for the first six games of the season. But he’ll be there when it matters.
Rashee Rice was one of the darlings of this offseason, with good reason. He was off to an amazing start last year before friendly fire on an interception return cost him the rest of his sophomore season. His absence reverberated the rest of the way for Kansas City. Despite having Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs offensive identity faltered in the red zone. Chiefs games were marked by near-misses and unrequited Hail Marys to Xavier Worthy; and watching Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt slough around in their cement shoes, doing their best to recapture their 2017 form. It was more painful than watching digitally de-aged Robert DeNiro stomping out people in The Irishman. That was a great movie. A three and half hour meditation on death and the accumulation of a life’s worth of bad choices. It would’ve been more uplifting to watch The Irishman each week instead of the Chiefs.
Making matters worse is the fact that Kansas City’s offense was, statistically, good. So what if the Chiefs offense produced good EPA, DVOA, and success rate numbers? DVOA isn’t going to win us fantasy matchups. The EPA gained by well-timed a Mahomes scramble to extend a drive isn’t factoring into my fantasy score. Another efficient completion to Noah Gray isn’t helping the cause. Success rate isn’t going to feed my family. You get the point.
Kansas City’s offense used to be a money tree. Spend your early picks on Chiefs and profit. Last year the tree withered. But it’s primed to come back to life this year. The things that made the Chiefs such an eyesore last season are the same things that are going to make Rice the belle of the ball this season. Hunt and Kelce are likely to be even less dynamic this season, Worthy looks to be an exciting but inconsistent option. The taste we got last year sure made it seem like the plan was to make Rice the engine of the offense. We don’t really have a reason to think that has changed.
It was a fast start last season, but Rice’s small sample had him pacing to be a top two or three receiver. Small samples are a gift and a curse in fantasy football. We probably shouldn’t trust them, but they can be so tantalizing. This is a good time to remember that Rice’s start last season didn’t come out of nowhere. He finished his rookie season strong and that carried over to the playoffs. He was a trendy pick going into last season.
Maybe Rice won’t finish alongside Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson at the top of the receiver pyramid. But, hear me out. What if he does post-Halloween? The Chiefs offense is going to be good, whether we like it or not. Rice is a good player on the ascent, he’s the best weapon on the team, he has Andy Reid dialing up plays for him, and Patrick Mahomes will be throwing him the ball.
The money grows on trees. Get shaded.
Devon Achane
Picking the smallest kid to be on your team has been a dicey proposition since fourth grade. Back then the problem was that our Lucky Charms-addled brains equated size to talent. Obviously, the bigger kids were bound to be the best at whatever game was on tap that day and that’s how it was.
Until it wasn’t. Once the smaller children with the surprising talent proved themselves, that was it, right? It should’ve been.
But, the whole judging books by their covers is one of life’s truest lessons and one that we learn over and over again throughout life.
That brings me to De’Von Achane. He might literally be half the size of Derrick Henry. He’s also produced roughly the same per game scoring as Henry over the last two years.
Achane is at about 17.45 points per game and Henry is at 17.15. Henry leads in total points by about 90, largely due to a combo of Achane missing time as a rookie and injuries to Tua Tagovailoa. I should note that this is PPR scoring and Achane led all running backs in receptions in 2024.
Last year Achane played in 11 games with Tua and six without him. In the games Tua missed, Achane totaled 11 receptions. Eleven. In eleven games with Tua running the show, Achane had 67 catches. That would’ve ranked second in the league behind Alvin Kamara’s 68 receptions. It’s not a stretch to say Achane likely would’ve hit 100 catches if Tua had played all season.
Unfortunately, we can’t count on Tua to make every start. He’s small, like Achane. And both undersized stars are oft-injured. I Google “Achane soft tissue injury” daily.
Both will be fine this season, and you have to play them every chance you get.
The best part of the whole Achane situation is that there’s room for growth. His rookie season showcased the kind of electric playmaking only the elite of the elite can reach. In his second season the otherworldly efficiency regressed, but the workload grew. Maybe Achane is never able to combine the efficiency and the workload… but can you imagine what it would look like if he did?
Going into his third season, Achane’s situation in Miami looks tastier than ever. Tyreek Hill might quit on the team tomorrow given how bad the training camp vibes have been.
And some people want to fade Achane because he’s… small? No thanks, I’ve learned that lesson.
Drake London
I checked and the Falcons receiver is my most-rostered NFL player across my fantasy football portfolio. (Not counting Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo.) London is the perfect mix of athleticism and opportunity. I expect 40% of the Atlanta targets to go his way. Last year was this young nucleus of talent washing itself clean of Arthur Smith’s 1965, run-first playcalling. Now with Michael Penix Jr. at the helm, a second-year player who was in college two years before COVID, this indoor dome team is ready for explode into open space.
A.J. Brown
“Nothing is for sure, nothing is for certain, nothing lasts forever…”
Over the last few weeks, I’ve been looking through the second-round players. This year has an embarrassment of riches for drafters to choose from. But every round has its landmines and players that give me pause. I wasn’t prepared for the name that would make me hesitate this year: A.J. Brown.
Brown has been one of my favorite players since he entered the league. Despite Mike Vrabel and Arthur Smith doing everything they could to limit Brown’s opportunities with the Titans, Brown frequently spun a handful of targets into fantasy gold, surely to the chagrin of his coaches. I used to argue with friends that Tennessee would’ve been better off giving Brown 10+ targets a week rather than force feeding Derrick Henry.
The point is that Brown has been awesome since he stepped foot in the NFL. When the Titans traded him to the Eagles, a new level to Brown’s game unlocked. Carrying over the high efficiency he showed in Tennessee, Brown started getting targets commensurate with a proper No. 1 wide receiver. He started his Eagles tenure with consecutive 1,400 yard seasons, and still managed to eclipse 1,000 yards in 2024 despite missing four games. I remember watching him toil away in Tennessee, waiting for the inevitable slant route that he’d turn into a 70-yard touchdown. Those moments were glorious and made it more baffling that Tennessee simply refused to feed the beast.
It is fitting that since getting traded to the Eagles, Brown has appeared in two Super Bowls and won one championship, while Vrabel is most known for walking out with Morgan Wallen.
So, why am I not as enthusiastic about Brown in fantasy football this year? That’s what I ‘m struggling to wrap my mind around. Brown is still going to be the focal point of the passing game. Last year’s offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, is taking his fast-paced offense to New Orleans, so that part of the equation is a mystery for 2025. Things are likely to stay similar but with the play volume decreasing. The Eagles offense can go pass-heavy when they have to, but the last two seasons have shown Philly’s preferred play style is to lean on then run and snuff out their opponents with bully ball.
More than most defending champs, this year’s Eagles squad is in prime position to replicate last year’s formula. Of course, the threat of a Super Bowl hangover looms over the team and as we’ve seen in the past, this group can be combustible when things don’t go their way. Can’t you just see it already? We’re in Week 7 and the Eagles haven’t maintained last year’s good health and they’ve dropped a few games. Conversations are flowing once again about how Jalen Hurts and the passing game are erratic and Brown and Devonta Smith are showing their frustrations on the sidelines and terse interviews. Then someone scrubs their Instagram of Eagles affiliations.
The more I think about it and write, delete, and rewrite this article, I keep coming back to one of the core tenets I wrote about not playing scared. The more I think this through, I’m realizing that this is a fear based take more than anything else.
Sure, Brown’s ADP nestled in among younger, ascending players. But Brown is a proven superstar who is still in his prime. Concerns about regression coming for the Eagles offense has more to do with the running game. Most importantly, this isn’t dynasty. It’s redraft and I don’t need to worry about anything beyond this year. In my heart of hearts, there are only two or maybe three receivers I’d take ahead of Brown in real life football and not many more I’d take ahead of him in fantasy. That’s it. I’m in for 2025.
As OutKast said: “…It’s him and I, Aquemini.”