RENTON — Two quarterbacks were taken by New York teams in the top 10 picks of the 2018 NFL draft.
One was a prototypical prospect — a blue-chip recruit with double-digit offers out of San Clemente (Calif.) High, a redshirt freshman starter at USC, a Rose Bowl champion and a polished passer.
One was a wild card — an overlooked recruit with zero scholarship offers out of Firebaugh (Calif.) High, a junior college transfer turned Wyoming Cowboy, an inconsistent passer but elite athlete.
On April 26, 2018, their paths converged at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, where the prototypical prospect (Sam Darnold) and the wild card (Josh Allen) shared a green room for the draft. Both landed in the AFC East, with the New York Jets nabbing Darnold at No. 3 overall and the Buffalo Bills swiping Allen at No. 7.
That night, two California kids with enormous expectations envisioned dueling twice a year for the next two decades.
“We were joking about who’s going to have the better record after 20 years,” a 20-year-old Darnold said the next day, wearing a gray suit and a baby-faced grin at his introductory news conference. “He was like, ‘We might go 20-20.’ ”
In reality, Darnold went just 2-3 against Allen before New York pulled the plug in 2021. The prototypical prospect was dismissed as a colossal draft bust, drifting from Carolina to a backup role in San Francisco, before resurfacing in Minnesota in 2024.
Seven years after their paths parted, Allen is the reigning NFL MVP, the franchise quarterback he was drafted to be.
Meanwhile, Darnold is … what, exactly?
Is he the mistake-prone passer the Jets gave up on after amassing a 13-25 record as a starter in three pitiable seasons? The overwhelmed QB who went viral for saying he was “seeing ghosts” in a 33-0 loss to the Patriots in 2019? The liability who lobbed more interceptions than touchdown passes in 2020 and 2021? The improved/flawed flash in the pan, whose breakout season in Minnesota ended with back-to-back losses and 11 combined sacks?
Or is he finally a franchise quarterback, after seven years of seasoning?
Starting against San Francisco on Sunday, we’re about to find out.
“You gain so much knowledge just from experience alone,” Darnold said Thursday, three days before the Seahawks host the 49ers at Lumen Field. “So you just continue to stack that up over the course of time. Obviously defenses start bringing new things and they show you different looks and different pressures with different coverages, so there’s always something new that defensive coordinators like to keep quarterbacks on their toes with.
“I think that’s the fun part about the game, though. It’s ever evolving, and it’s changing all the time.”
The Seahawks — who awarded Darnold a three-year, $100.5 million contract this offseason — are betting that the quarterback’s evolution has only begun. They’re also betting on his history with new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, who oversaw Darnold as a backup with San Francisco in 2023.
Perhaps most important, they’re betting on balance. If a new scheme and a revamped offensive line produces a punishing running game, and a reliable defense does its part, Darnold needs to only distribute and minimize mistakes.
“I’ve touched on the timing piece before, but I think he’s great with his timing. You know when the ball is getting out,” Seahawks tight end AJ Barner said of Darnold last month. “I think we all expect really great things from Sam. He doesn’t turn the ball over, either. He makes great decisions, smart decisions, checks the ball down when he needs to, checks to run plays. [He’s] never messing up calls in the huddle.
“So he’s very consistent. He’s a pro. He’s been in this league for a while. He’s going to have a really, really great year.”
If, that is, Barner is right about the above.
When it comes to the “timing piece,” Darnold, 28, has held the ball longer than almost anyone in the past several seasons. His average time in the pocket was 2.6 seconds in 2024 (second-longest in the NFL), 2.9 seconds in 2023 (longest), 2.7 seconds in 2022 (tied for second) and 2.5 seconds in 2021 (tied for third). Behind an unproven offensive line, Darnold can’t afford to be indecisive.
And as for Barner’s assertion that “he doesn’t turn the ball over, either”? Darnold has done so with alarming consistency throughout much of his career. He threw an interception on 3.6% of his passes in 2018 (tied for fourth-most in the NFL), 2.9% in 2019 (sixth), 3.0% in 2020 (fifth) and 3.2% in 2021 (third). There was obvious improvement in his next season as a starter, as Darnold’s interception rate dipped to 2.2% (tied for 17th) in 2024.
The Seahawks don’t need Darnold to be Josh Allen, to lift an entire offense with superhuman skills.
But they do need a continued evolution from their first-year quarterback.
“As a quarterback, when you’re drafted in the first round, there’s a lot of expectations that outside people have on you, maybe even more than you have on yourself,” Seahawks defensive tackle Leonard Williams, Darnold’s teammate in New York in 2018 and 2019, said. “I think that puts a lot of pressure on a young guy. Because he’s in Year 8 now, he’s been on a few different teams. He’s had the success. That just creates confidence.”
Maybe, finally, it’ll create a franchise quarterback as well.
Mike Vorel: mvorel@seattletimes.com. Mike Vorel is a sports columnist at The Seattle Times.