The Portland Trail Blazers' first-round investment in Iowa forward Kris Murray has yet to pay off. Unfortunately, there's no sign it ever will either, as Murray is [trending in the wrong direction](https://ripcityproject.com/blazers-regret-josh-hart-trade-grows-first-round-pick-doesnt-pan-out-kris-murray). He took a significant step back in his second season with the Blazers, averaging 4.2 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 1.0 assists on 42/23/46 shooting splits.
The most concerning aspect of his decline was Murray's shooting. He needed to improve his efficiency to earn a consistent spot in Chauncey Billups' rotation, but instead, his three-point percentage dipped from 26.8 to 22.5%. That resulted in his minutes decreasing from 21.7 to 15.1 per game.
Shooting woes threaten Kris Murray's future with Blazers
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Entering the league after three successful years at Iowa, Murray was viewed as an NBA-ready prospect -- someone with a high floor due to his defensive versatility at 6-foot-6, but a relatively capped ceiling, primarily due to his age. However, because of his offensive limitations as a non-shooting wing, Murray's floor was much lower than many anticipated.
The average small forward in the NBA shot 35.5% from deep last season, over ten percentage points higher than Murray. That's a non-negotiable in the modern NBA, as it's imperative for a wing to be a threat from beyond the arc.
The analytics alone show the value of the three-ball, but you can also get a sense of its importance by looking at the top three-point shooting teams in the league last season. Seven of the eight teams to reach the Conference Semifinals ranked in the top ten in three-point percentage in the regular season, with the only exception being the Stephen Curry-led Golden State Warriors. If you were a top ten three-point shooting team, you had a 70% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. That seems significant enough for a Portland team looking to end a four-year playoff drought to focus on, especially considering they have finished as a bottom-five three-point shooting team the past two seasons and shipped Anfernee Simons away this summer.
Murray could still improve this fatal flaw, but there's also a sense of urgency surrounding his development. The Blazers quietly have one of the deepest benches in the association and need immediate impact players to help achieve their win-now goals.
Murray's down season has put his long-term spot in jeopardy. What once seemed to be a safe first-round pick is fighting [just to stick around](https://ripcityproject.com/young-players-trail-blazers-develop-give-up) in Portland.