How good is Senne Lammens?
The stats suggest the new Manchester United goalkeeper knows his way around a six-yard box. And the YouTube compilations will tell you whatever you want to be told.
So the short answer: f*** knows.
Unless you’re an avid watcher of the Jupiler Pro League, then you will know as little as we do. And it’s ok to admit that you’ve never seen Lammens play and that until quite recently, you had never heard of the 23-year-old.
There may come a day very soon that you will long for those times of blissful ignorance. Because Lammens is set to have every catch, kick, fumble and twitch scrutinised from every angle when he assumes responsibility for the ‘hardest job in football’.
When he takes his place in the Old Trafford goal, United fans just need to hope that the recruitment figures at Old Trafford have thoroughly done their homework on Lammens. And that they have finally learned how to pick a goalkeeper.
United will have seen the same stats we have – and reams more – that suggest Lammens is a very good goalkeeper indeed. In the Belgian Pro League.
Last season, for Royal Antwerp, he conceded 32 goals, whereas xG tells us he ought to have been beaten 44.5 times. Not accounting for two own goals – one of which was scored by Lammens himself – the numbers suggest he conceded 0.5 goals per game fewer than expected.
In that metric, he is unmatched in Europe’s top five leagues. None of which he was playing in, of course. But even accounting for the level, it’s a very impressive claim.
He made a few of those last season. Lammens stopped 11.2% of the crosses swung into Antwerp’s box. Only six keepers in the top five European leagues were more effective. For comparison, Andre Onana stopped 5.4% of the crosses in his vicinity – half the number Lammens managed in two more matches.
The stats paint a picture of a very competent goalkeeper, a ‘strong all-rounder’ as Lammens described himself this week, and that would make a very welcome change for United fans, their nerves frayed by watching Onana shamble around their goal for two seasons. And when he was finally replaced, in came Altay Bayindir, who seemingly reached the highest level having never had to face a corner-kick before.
United, hopefully – we make no assumptions of them these days – have dug a little deeper on Lammens, though. Because nothing on a spreadsheet can tell them or us how the 23-year-old will cope with the step up and the spotlight about to shine upon him.
In that respect, United’s decision to opt for Lammens over Emiliano Martinez remains a surprise. Martinez, outwardly, possesses more confidence than is healthy for a functioning adult in society, but an ideal level of self-belief for an elite goalkeeper. United’s keeper concerns down the years have generally been solved by experience and the simple answer to their current problems would have been someone with Martinez’s CV and presence.
No question, this is a gamble for United. Going for a much younger, inexperienced, unproven option carries huge risk for the reward of a stable presence in their nets.
Even if that’s what Lammens proves to be in the long term, things will almost certainly get dicey in the meantime.
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David De Gea was younger and had to grow into his United shirt – literally and metaphorically – when he arrived in 2012, but Sir Alex Ferguson saw something worth persevering with during a rotten 18 months at the start of his career at Old Trafford.
Would De Gea have been afforded that settling-in period in today’s climate? Very unlikely. He was fortunate to be part of a very fine team while being shielded by the sheer force of Fergie. Lammens will enjoy the benefit of neither of those things, or anything even close.
When he makes mistakes – he will because all goalkeepers do; the best just keep them to an absolute minimum – Lammens will be ridiculed, mocked and written off by a wider public that never tires of rejoicing in the Red Devils’ misery.
But in between the inevitable misjudgements, if he can rise above the pathetically low bar the current keepers have set, then United have to show more resolve than we suspect they possess while allowing Lammens the necessary time to develop into the keeper they apparently feel he can become.