Preview originally published on Hustle Belt
Game notes
Time and date: Saturday, September 6 at 7:00 p.m. ET
Network: ESPN+
Location: Glass Bowl — Toledo, OH
Spread: Toledo (-7.5)
Over/under: 58.5
All-time series: WKU leads, 1-0
Last meeting: WKU 26, Toledo 21 — September 21, 2024
Current streak: WKU, 1 (2024)
Setting the scene
This one looms large for two conferences. It’s a fight between a MAC and a Conference USA heavyweight.
Both teams can be penciled in as conference contenders on an annual basis. Toledo hasn’t seen a single losing season since 2009, winning 9+ games in eight of the last 15 seasons and two conference titles under Jason Candle. WKU has generated eight or nine wins in every non-pandemic season under Tyson Helton, whose tenure dates back to 2019.
The first-ever meeting between the Rockets and Hilltoppers certainly didn’t disappoint. Toledo was fresh off a 41-17 victory in SEC country, but WKU brought the Rockets back down to earth with a goal line stand to survive 26-21 in Bowling Green, KY. The second installment moves to the Glass Bowl, where the 0-1 Rockets eye revenge.
WKU Hilltoppers outlook
WKU head coach Tyson Helton led the Hilltoppers to a Week 4 victory over Toledo in 2024.
WKU head coach Tyson Helton led the Hilltoppers to a Week 4 victory over Toledo in 2024.
Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Western Kentucky (2-0, 1-0 CUSA) is one of four 2-0 teams in the country, getting an early start on its season in Week 0. The Hilltoppers flew past both challengers — conference brethren Sam Houston and FCS opponent North Alabama — en route to a perfect start, but this road opener at Toledo presents a significant ramp-up in difficulty.
What WKU established in its first two contests is expected of a Tyson Helton team. The Hilltoppers have featured the nation’s leading passer four times since 2014, and the team looks primed to repeat that feat again in 2025. Maverick McIvor transferred up from FCS Abilene Christian and the gunslinger looks tailor-made for this offense, especially considering his own coordinator Rick Bowie made the same offseason move to WKU.
McIvor is a two-time CUSA Offensive Player of the Week with 706 passing yards, eight touchdowns, and zero interceptions through his two starts. Although there were a few errant throws out of the gate in the Week 0 contest, McIvor has been dynamite from an accuracy standpoint since, completing 69.5 percent of attempts on the year. WKU isn’t afraid to lean heavily on his arm, especially in a closer game, and he threw 51 times in the opener — including 34 before the halftime whistle blew.
McIvor already has an established three-man receiver grouping in his new home — Matthew Henry, K.D. Hutchinson, and Moussa Barry. Henry is the newbie in the group, arriving from FCS Western Illinois where he produced 1,179 receiving yards on an 18.7 average. That average was no fluke. Henry is already an established deep threat as a Hilltopper, turning nine receptions into 189 yards (21.7 yards per catch) and two touchdowns thanks to a knack for shaking defenders out of their shoes on downfield route. Week 0 was Henry’s time in the limelight and Week 1 belonged to Hutchinson who produced 113 yards and two touchdowns.
WKU’s offense is capable of spreading the wealth. Six different receivers average at least 30 yards per game, including true freshman running back Marvis Parrish. The Hilltoppers aren’t inclined to run as much, but the two-star recruit quickly made his way to the top of the depth chart and exhibits team-highs in carries (16) and rushing yards (71).
The Hilltoppers are traditionally known for their Bailey Zappes and Mike Whites and Brandon Doughtys in the passing game, but the defense has equally been stellar through two games. WKU has surrendered just two offensive touchdowns which both stemmed from 50+ yard Sam Houston breakaway runs. The unit forces routine punts, primarily excelling in the coverage aspect. The Hilltoppers’ two opponents connected on 53.8 percent of passes, averaging just 4.8 yards per attempt.
Nickel Jaylen Lewis has excelled as the team’s leading tackler on the year with 10 stops, in addition to securing the team’s lone interception. Other standouts include defensive end Dominic Oliver, who has two sacks to his name, and outside linebacker Anthony Brackenridge, who carries six tackles and two tackles for loss into this third game of the year. Last year’s 26-21 win over Toledo was primarily defensive-driven, with the Hilltoppers picking off two fourth quarter passes and holding the Rockets to 3.0 yards per rush to escape triumphant.
Toledo Rockets outlook
Toledo WR Junior Vandeross III is averaging 10 receptions and 122 yards across his last three outings.
Toledo WR Junior Vandeross III is averaging 10 receptions and 122 yards across his last three outings.
Getty Images
Toledo entered 2025 with its usual lofty expectations, finding itself in the familiar position as the MAC favorite.
The Rockets received a manageable schedule, but not necessarily an easy one, drawing Kentucky and WKU out of the gate. There was hope Toledo’s sheer experience would prevail again in SEC country in a bout with Kentucky, but the Wildcats’ defensive front overwhelmed the Rockets in a 24-16 outcome. Now staring down a potential 0-2 start, Toledo is in must-win situation as it returns home to the Glass Bowl.
Toledo showcases a slew of stars eager to flip the result of last year’s WKU game. One is starting quarterback Tucker Gleason, who not only eyes redemption after two picks vs. the Hilltoppers last year — he’s also ready to brush off a rough opener at Kentucky and exhibit his dual-threat capabilities again. Gleason crossed 280 yards five times last year, showing the ability to light it up through the air. It took three quarters, but the veteran quarterback proved those skills once again in the fourth quarter last week, delivering two late touchdowns to keep Toledo in striking distance.
Assisting Gleason in the aerial attack is his trusty No. 1 wide receiver Junior Vandeross III. The reigning All-MAC selection showed his ability to take over a game last year in the 6-overtime GameAbove Sports Bowl win over Pitt, and Vandeross eyes his sixth-career 100-yard outing after producing 88 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. Toledo must find a co-star to supplement Vandeross’ game and the primary contender is Northern Illinois transfer Trayvon Rudolph. Rudolph was a First Team All-MAC selection in 2021 and once produced 14 catches for 309 yards and three touchdowns in a single outing.
Another star Toledo needs to take a leap is running back Chip Trayanum. The Ohio State transfer was stifled quite often in the opener, as Toledo lost its trench battles to Kentucky’s defensive front. Toledo averaged 2.0 yards collectively on the ground, failing to record a breakaway sprint exceeding 12 yards.
While the Gleason-to-Vandeross connection is lethal, the strength of this Toledo team resides within its defense. The Rockets exhibit one of the better secondaries in the country, headlined by cornerback Avery Smith, free safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, and nickel Nasir Bowers. Kentucky only managed 88 passing yards and an interception on a 10-of-23 performance. Bowers and McNeil-Warren both contributed to the turnover game, as Bowers secured a diving interception off a batted ball while McNeil-Warren punched out and recovered a fumble in one motion.
McNeil-Warren and Smith checked in at first and third on the team in tackles, with 11 and 6, respectively. There weren’t too many question marks about Toledo’s defensive back room which is a huge plus when playing a pass-happy offense like WKU’s. The questions concerned the front, and the Rockets certainly have work to do there. Kentucky’s run game ultimately wore out Toledo in the fourth quarter the Wildcat running back duo combined for 207 rushing yards and three touchdowns. However, Kentucky only posted 10 points through three quarters, and the touchdown stemmed from a 29-yard drive. WKU won’t likely fatigue Toledo in the run game as much, so the Rockets will fight a heavily-contrasting style in Week 2.
Prediction
Sometimes games have a very predictable layout — you know if it’s a low-scoring defensive bout or a high-scoring track meet. This one has potential for both. While Toledo and WKU have exhibited defensive promise so far, there is immense offensive talent contained within both squads.
WKU wants to scorch every opponent with over 300 passing yards, using Maverick McIvor and his litany of receivers to pitch-and-catch their way to victory. Toledo may not have Quinyon Mitchell any more, but that defensive back room is full of Mitchell disciples and limits aerial production to a fairly strong extent.
Toledo should see more success in the run game this week, and the Tucker Gleason and Junior Vandeross pairing is always dangerous. After establishing that connection in the fourth quarter in Week 1, Toledo utilizes it more out of the gate and notches its first win of the season — in a down-to-the-wire spectacle.
Prediction: Toledo 30, WKU 28
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