The Minnesota Vikings may play the Chicago Bears twice a year, but that doesn’t mean they know what to expect when the teams face off this Monday.
In January, the Bears hired Ben Johnson as their new head coach. He had spent the previous six seasons on the Detroit Lions’ staff, serving as the team’s offensive coordinator for the past three seasons. The Lions finished in the top five in team scoring and total yardage with Johnson coordinating their offense.
Johnson immediately turned Detroit’s offense around. In 2021, Lions ranked 25th in scoring and 22nd in total yards. Transforming that unit into one of the league’s best in one season was impressive work for Johnson in his first stint as offensive coordinator.
However, the Lions saw even more significant improvement in their red zone offense when Johnson took over in 2022. After ranking 31st in the red zone in 2021, Johnson elevated the unit to fourth overall.
There’s a lot of uncertainty about how quickly Johnson can implement his offense in Chicago. The Bears ranked 28th in points scored last year and dead last in yardage. At first glance, it would appear that Chicago didn’t execute well in any facet of their offense.
Still, Chicago’s offense was surprisingly very effective in the red zone. The Bears scored touchdowns on 23 of 37 (62.2%) of their red-zone possessions in 2024, the eighth-best mark in the league. They were tied for seventh in EPA/play inside the 20.
Their success in these situations against the Vikings almost directly affected the outcome of each game. In Week 12 at Soldier Field, the Bears scored touchdowns on all three red-zone opportunities, sending the game to overtime and narrowly losing, 30-27.
Less than a month later, Minnesota adjusted, holding the Bears to only one touchdown in three red-zone possessions. This time, the Vikings controlled the game, easily winning 30-12.
Meanwhile, Detroit’s offense ranked third in the red zone in 2024. No team in the league ran more plays inside the 20 than the Lions (227), and they found the end zone on 50 of 72 red-zone possessions (69.4%).
The Lions scored on their lone red-zone drive in the Week 7 meeting against the Vikings, ultimately winning 31-29. But in Week 18, with the division and NFC’s top seed in the playoffs on the line, Detroit scored touchdowns in all three red-zone drives. Worse yet, they came in the final 17 minutes and 30 seconds, allowing a narrow 10-9 deficit to turn into a 31-9 final.
Interestingly, these weren’t the only two teams to produce against the Vikings inside the red zone last year. Minnesota ranked only 18th in red zone defense in 2024, allowing touchdowns on 29 of 49 drives (59.2%). Only the Dallas Cowboys allowed more yards per play than the Vikings did in the red zone (3.9).
It’s surprising because Minnesota’s defense ranked third in EPA/play allowed (-0.13). But that number rose to +0.07 inside the 20, the highest EPA/play allowed among all playoff teams.
Did the Vikings do enough this offseason to help them curb what the Bears did best last year? Minnesota added veteran defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, who are known for their pass-rush abilities. The Vikings will count on them to help give Brian Flores the flexibility to blitz less often than he has the past two seasons.
Minnesota will also have the luxury of having both of its starting linebackers available for this matchup. Ivan Pace, Jr. suffered an injury five plays into last year’s matchup in Soldier Field. Pace is more effective against the pass than against the run. PFF gave him an 89.1 pass-rush grade last year.
With Pace out of the lineup, Caleb Williams had one of his best games of the season, completing 32 of 47 passes for 340 yards and two touchdowns, both of which came in the red zone. Williams was able to break the pocket and repeatedly extend plays, taking advantage of a defense that struggled to get to the quarterback when it wasn’t sending extra pressure.
But just because the Bears and Lions each had success in 2024 doesn’t mean that they operated the short field in the same way. The Lions threw the ball 46.7% of the time inside the 20, which ranked 22nd in the league. Meanwhile, Chicago passed 55.2% of the time when they were within 20 yards of the end zone, which was the ninth-highest mark in the NFL.
Johnson may want to run the ball like he did in Detroit, but he doesn’t have Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in the backfield. Instead, he has De’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson, who averaged 3.8 and 2.7 yards per carry last year, respectively. They also don’t have the benefit of running behind one of the league’s best offensive lines like Gibbs and Montgomery did in Detroit.
But does that uncertainty in the running game further complicate Minnesota’s defensive game plan? They struggled to stop the Lions in the red zone last year when Johnson was calling plays, but they at least knew his tendencies. Could his approach be completely different, yet yield similar results, in his first game calling plays for Chicago?
Every team will focus on game planning against Chicago’s red-zone offense. Knowing how to stop it when a well-respected playcaller has a different array of weapons at his disposal muddies the plan of action to stifle the attack.
Is Johnson going to dig in and rely on what worked in Detroit, knowing that it will eventually work, even if that potentially sacrifices success in his first game? Or will he overhaul his approach altogether, picking up where he left off with a completely new identity?
This adds to the intrigue of an early yet crucial NFC North division clash. Johnson has been a thorn in Minnesota’s side, going 1-5 against them since 2022. Now, we see what he can do when he doesn’t have an offense full of weapons at his disposal. Does that handcuff him? Or does it force him to adapt, allowing him to beat the Vikings in the same phases that he has before?