The ceiling for a football team that has won a total of eight games over the last two seasons is typically pretty low. But the attitude around the 2025 Patriots is different.
There is optimism that Mike Vrabel and company are due to turn things around this season. Eliot Wolf completely rebuilt the roster in the offseason, and Drake Maye is primed to have a strong sophomore campaign as New England's quarterback.
So what represents the best-case scenario for the 2025 Patriots?
Winning the AFC East appears to be a bit far-fetched. Buffalo has owned the division since Tom Brady departed for Tampa Bay in 2020, and the Bills are in Super Bowl-or-bust mode this season. Anyone who has the Patriots winning the division as a prognostication is perhaps a little too optimistic.
Is compiling 10 or 11 wins and earning a Wild Card berth in a loaded AFC a best-case scenario? That's what all the signs are pointing to. Should New England accomplish that, anything that happens beyond that is icing on the cake.
How can the Patriots achieve that best-case scenario?
1. Drake Maye has to have a great year
There's no denying that a lot of eyes will be on New England's second-year quarterback. The expectations are that Maye will perform better than in his rookie campaign, thanks to a new coaching staff and a rebuilt roster.
The one thing Maye needs to improve on is his decision-making. A couple of his throws during the preseason sailed and could've easily been interceptions, and the Patriots' offense isn't built to commit multiple turnovers and win games.
If Maye can approach 4,000 yards through the air and 25 touchdown passes, the Patriots will attain their scenario.
2. Take advantage of September and October
The Patriots' schedule over the first two months of the season isn't exactly a murderer's row. Even though the team has a three-game road trip in October, two of those opponents are the woeful Saints and the rebuilding Titans.
If New England is going to make the postseason, it can't fall behind the eight-ball early in the season. The AFC is just too top-heavy. Trips to Miami and Buffalo represent the Patriots' toughest games over the first two months, so a 5-3 start at minimum is a fair expectation.
3. The rookies play up to expectation
Don't be surprised if TreVeyon Henderson sniffs 1,000 yards rushing this season. That's how talented this rookie running back is. He's a perfect fit for Josh McDaniels' system.
Henderson, Kyle Williams, and Will Campbell will need to have quality seasons if the Patriots are going to make the postseason. That is particularly true of Campbell, who will be tasked with protecting Maye's blindside and is expected to be a cornerstone left tackle.
If all these things - and several others - come together for the Patriots, that best-case scenario will come to fruition.
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