A home game against not only the Seahawks’ biggest rival but the team generally considered as the favorite in the NFC West?
Seahawks defensive lineman Leonard Williams said he’s not sure there’s a better way to kick off his 11th NFL season.
“Overall I think this is going to be a great way to start the season,’’ Williams said this week. “We’ve been working hard throughout OTAs (the offseason program), we’ve been building a culture, building an identity, and what better way to show it than at a home game versus a division rival like the Niners?’’
Williams stopped just short of predicting a win.
“I believe in our team,’’ Williams said. “I think it’s going to be a good Week 1 for us.”
As openers go, it’s as interesting as any the Seahawks have played in a while, the beginning of year two of the Mike Macdonald era against the team they knows they have to beat to win the NFC West.
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It’s also a chance to begin quieting the team’s many doubters — the Seahawks have the worst Las Vegas odds to win the division, and are an underdog in a home opener for just the second time since 2010.
There is also the big mystery surrounding the 49ers — will star running back Christian McCaffrey play?
That didn’t seem an issue until Thursday, when he popped up on the injury report with a calf issue, and on Friday was listed as questionable on the team’s official game status report.
McCaffrey told San Francisco reporters Friday afternoon that he “feels great” and plans to play. Still, his status will be a big one to watch as kickoff approaches.
If McCaffrey doesn’t play, the 49ers will turn to Brian Robinson Jr. — acquired two weeks ago in a trade with Washington, where he rushed for 799 yards last season — and second-year player Isaac Guerendo to fill in.
Let’s look further at the game:
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
When, where: 1:05 p.m., Sunday, Lumen Field
TV: FOX Ch. 13 with Joe Davis (play-by-play), Greg Olsen (analyst) and Pam Oliver (sidelines).
Most recent game in series: The teams split the series last year, each winning on the road — the 49ers 36-24 at Lumen Field on Oct. 10 and the Seahawks 20-17 in Santa Clara on Nov. 17
Point spread: 49ers by 2.5 (via VegasInsider).
Key injuries: The Seahawks listed three players as out — receivers Jake Bobo (concussion) and Dareke Young (hamstring) and outside linebacker Uchenna Nwosu (knee). Everyone else is good to go.
McCaffrey is the big question for the 49ers. San Francisco receiver Jauan Jennings is expected to play after battling a calf injury in camp. The 49ers listed WR Jordan Watkins (ankle) and RB Jordan James (finger) as doubtful.
Last week’s games: The Seahawks finished the preseason 1-1-1 while the 49ers were 2-1.
The big story: Feels like there’s a lot already on the line for both teams. The 49ers are attempting to prove last year’s 6-11 faceplant was mostly because of an uncommonly high number of injuries to key players, while the Seahawks are hoping to show they’re a legitimate contender in the NFC West.
Key matchup: Seahawks’ offensive line vs. San Francisco’s defensive front.
The Seahawks’ oft-maligned offensive line appeared a totally different unit in two preseason appearances thanks to a new outside zone run scheme, a healthy Abe Lucas at right tackle and the addition of first-round pick Grey Zabel at left guard.
Now it faces a San Francisco front that aside from perennial All-Pro end Nick Bosa is considered one of the team’s bigger question marks, potentially relying heavily on first-round pick Mykel Williams, an end who went 11th overall. The 49ers finished just 17th in the NFL last year in yards allowed per rush and 30th in rushing TDs given up.
The preseason is the preseason. The NFL will be watching how the Seahawks’ revamped line performs now that the games count.
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Key player: Quarterback Sam Darnold
Six months after the Seahawks signed him to replace the traded Geno Smith, Darnold makes his official Seahawks debut. Darnold is used to big stages and making heralded debuts with new teams, so he should be comfortable enough in the setting.
More telling is how Darnold operates the offense and avoids sacks and turnovers. The Seahawks’ defense should be good enough to keep it in most, if not every, game and among the offense’s biggest objectives this season will be to not lose games first.
Key stat: Turnover differential
Speaking of not giving the ball away, the Seahawks and 49ers were among the worst in the NFL last year in turnover margin — the Seahawks were 23rd at minus-six, forcing 18 while losing 24. The 49ers were 27th at minus-10 getting only 17 while losing 27. Both teams had bad luck with fumbles — the 49ers losing 11 and getting just six, the Seahawks losing eight and getting five — a stat that historically tends to even out from year to year.
The winner Sunday could be as simple as the team that get the fortunate bounce of the ball.
Three other things to watch
Is Kenneth Walker III ready to retake a starring role in the backfield?
Much has been written and said in the offseason of Walker and his future as he enters the final year of his rookie deal. He didn’t play in the preseason while resting and nursing a sore foot. He’s healthy heading into the season and if the O-line really is as improved as it looked in the preseason, he could fulfill his seemingly immense potential this season. But if Walker struggles, the Seahawks will be quick to go to Zach Charbonnet. Walker needs just 85 yards to pass Maurice Morris and move into 10th on the Seahawks’ all-time rushing list.
Cooper Kupp’s Seattle debut
This is the Seattle debut for Kupp, who the Seahawks signed to fill much of the production void created when DK Metcalf was traded. Kupp turned 32 in June and has battled injuries the last three seasons. He’s been healthy throughout the preseason and surely motivated to prove he still has a lot of football life left in him.
Can the defense live up to the hype?
Much of the optimism surrounding the Seahawks is focused on a defense that improved markedly as the 2024 season progressed. The two games against the 49ers told the tale well. In a 36-24 loss in October, they allowed a season-high 483 yards.
Just over a month later, after the Seahawks traded for middle linebacker Ernest Jones IV and inserted rookie weakside linebacker Tyrice Knight into the starting lineup -they beat the 49ers 20-17, holding them to 277 yards.
Oddly, McCaffrey did not play in the first game last year, but he did play in the second, rushing for 79 yards on 19 carries in his second game back from injury and just one of four he played all season. The 49ers are still dangerous without him, but obviously a lot more so with him.
If McCaffrey is out, the Seahawks need to contain tight end George Kittle grows that much more.
Prediction
Seahawks 23, 49ers 17
The Seahawks got the 49ers monkey off their back with the win last November and enter the season healthy, while the 49ers at least have some concern over the status of McCaffrey. Those factors and a fevered home crowd will help lift the Seahawks to a critical win.
Bob Condotta: bcondotta@seattletimes.com. Bob Condotta is a sports reporter at The Seattle Times who primarily covers the Seahawks but also dabbles in other sports. He has worked at The Times since 2002, reporting on University of Washington Husky football and basketball for his first 10 years at the paper before switching to the Seahawks in 2013.