CLEVELAND, Ohio — The Browns are getting no love out there this season from the national media, and not even many props from the locals.
Most national sites have the Browns way down at No. 31 in their Week 1 power rankings, with CBS sports dropping a generous No. 30 on them.
BetMGM and other gambling sites have the Browns’ over/under at 4.5 victories, just 1.5 more than their 3-14 record of last season.
No one seems impressed with 40-year-old Joe Flacco as the Browns starting quarterback, or their haul of draft picks including two new running backs and two starting defenders.
But with No. 36 overall pick Quinshon Judkins signing his four-year rookie contract on Saturday after missing all of preseason, with Myles Garrett on a mission to strap this team right on top of his Superman cape and leap The Terminal Tower, and with Pro Bowlers such as Jerry Jeudy, Denzel Ward, David Njoku, Joel Bitonio, Wyatt Teller and Jack Conklin aiming to win now, I believe the Browns will be better than most think they’ll be.
Will they be playoff-contending good? It’s entirely possible if they flip their league-worst turnover differential from 2024. No one’s making the playoffs by throwing a league-high 23 interceptions, grabbing a league-low 4 by the defense and finishing rock bottom in turnover differential at minus-22, six spots worse than the next team.
If it sounds too simple, turnovers are the great equalizer. A team that has glaring weaknesses can compensate by winning the turnover battle most weeks. Even one cornerback with a nose for the INT can change the course of a season.
It all starts, of course, with Flacco, who will start Sunday’s opener against the Bengals, the fifth time he’s opened against them in his 18-year career. Flacco is 3-1 against the Bengals in openers, including a 17-10 victory in 2008, his rookie year with the Ravens. He ripped off a 38-yard TD run in that game off a botched play, but will be hard-pressed to total that many rushing yards in this game.
If Flacco can avoid the picks that have plagued him, the Browns can win some games. The thing is, you want him playing with that gunslinger mentality and finding Jeudy and the guys downfield without worrying about picks. He’s rarely seen a one-on-one matchup he didn’t think he could exploit, which resulted in 13 TD passes in his five starts with the Browns in 2023. Of course, he also threw 8 INTs en route to that 4-1 regular season mark, and then threw the two pick-sixes in that disaster of a 45-14 wild card loss to the Texans.
But Flacco will have excellent protection, with the only new full-time starter being Dawand Jones at left tackle, where he’s started only three career games for the Browns. Fearsome Bengals edge-rusher Trey Hendrickson, who led the NFL with 17.5 sacks last season and has a league-high 35 over the past two years, will try to give Jones a baptism by fire, but the Browns will be ready to chip and double to keep him at bay. The line features three All-Pros in Bitonio, Teller and Conklin and one of the league’s best centers in Ethan Pocic. When you’re built tough in the trenches, at least you have a chance.
If Flacco can make the same, explosive music with Jeudy, a 2024 Pro Bowler, that he did with Amari Cooper two seasons ago, the Browns will have a shot in every game. By all accounts, Flacco’s arm is as strong as ever, and he still throws an eminently catchable ball, which of course, is more important than firepower.
Flacco already has plenty of chemistry with David Njoku, both on and off the field. The two are strange bedfellows off of it, and a dynamite battery on it.
“Opposites attract,” Njoku told cleveland. “He makes plays, I make plays and we make them together. 85 plus 15 (their jersey numbers) equals 100%.”
Flacco also has two new weapons this year in third-round tight end Harold Fannin Jr. and speedy undrafted rookie receiver Isaiah Bond, who’s acclimated as quickly as anyone I’ve seen.
“The part that’s been very exciting working with Isaiah is how well he’s done on the mental side of the game,” said receivers coach Chad O’Shea. “He’s blessed with having good intelligence, but he also works very hard, and he’s listened to not only the coaches, but to some of the veteran players on just how to go about his daily routine and how to get out there and help the team as quickly as he can.”
Fannin will pair with Njoku in the base two-tight end scheme, giving Flacco plenty of options, both over the middle and in the red zone/end zone. Remember, in six games with Flacco in 2023, including the playoff game, Njoku caught 37 passes for 483 yards (244 yards after the catch) and four TDs. Healthy this season, Njoku is eager to return to his Pro Bowl clip.
Judkins won’t play until next week in Baltimore, but the Browns can get the job done on Sunday with the trio of Jerome Ford, fourth-round pick Dylan Sampson and Raheim “Rocket” Sanders. When Judkins returns, the Browns will have a power running game reminiscent of the Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt days, and the linemen can’t wait to block for it. If Flacco fails to protect the ball, the Browns will turn to rookie Dillon Gabriel, but support him with a healthy dose of run.
Flacco moved well in preseason — not much different than in 2023 — and Tommy Rees acknowledged that they can run all the boots and keepers they want to with him in the game. Granted, they’ll move more when Gabriel plays, but Flacco is still more athletic than he gets credit for.
The defense is where the Browns should be able to grab some unexpected victories. Garrett, fresh off his trade demand and new $40 million a year deal, is determined to lead the Browns to the Super Bowl. It’s a noble goal, even if most think it’s far-fetched. When you have a gamewrecker like Garrett, anything can happen if you’re not turning the ball over. So confident is Garrett this season that when asked Friday if the mobile Burrow can get away from him, he said “no.” He also noted that while some in the past have, “not this year.”
NFL quarterbacks should be afraid, because Garrett is coming and he’s taking no prisoners. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz has challenged him not only to have the best season of his career in the wake of “I want out,” but to win NFL MVP. Garrett has set the team’s bar at a Super Bowl victory, and his own at NFL Defensive Player of the Year. With No. 5 overall pick Mason Graham wreaking havoc from the inside and Mike Hall Jr. (knee) set to join him in there soon, Garrett might be able to reach his goal of the NFL sack title for the first time. In camp, he’s looked like a caged tiger ready to pounce, but he must do even more of the impact stuff: sack-fumbles, touchdowns, tackles for a loss.
Browns defenders such as Ward and Greg Newsome II have stated the defense’s intention to return to No. 1, and even Schwartz thinks this might be the best line he’s had in his three seasons here. Ward took his game to another level in camp — if that’s even possible — and Newsome is out to prove he’s a bona fide starting outside corner again in Martin Emerson Jr.’s (ruptured Achilles) absence.
Safety Ronnie Hickman appears poised to take the ball away some this season, his first as a full-time starter, and same for Grant Delpit, who’s been saying for three seasons that he hasn’t done enough. He’s right. Over the past two seasons, he’s grabbed just one interception and forced no fumbles, and he’s capable of so much more. This year, it’s time for him to back it up and make his first Pro Bowl.
At linebacker, rookie Carson Schwesinger demonstrated a nose for the ball in camp, and must carry that over. If so, he can ease the gaping hole left by Pro Bowl linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who’s out for the season with a neck injury. If Schwesinger lives up to the hype, he can own the middle of the field, and maybe even make some noise for the Pro Bowl.
New kicker Andre Szmyt should settle down that spot, and the return game should be better.
If the players with great upside elevate their games and the rookies come through, the Browns could surprise some teams this season. If they just finish middle of the pack in turnover differential alone, that’s good for three or four more victories. Clean ball gets them to 7 wins, and a dominant defense, good running game and above average QB play can even get them to 10 in a perfect world. That seems like a reach, especially considering they have the second hardest schedule in the NFL this season based on projected win totals, according to Sharp Football. But if they want to make the playoffs, they’ll need 10. That’s my range: 7 to 10 victories, with 10 being crazy hard to achieve.
For this week, I’m picking them to beat the Bengals 24-23 largely because of Garrett and the defensive line vs. Joe Burrow and the Bengals o-line.
If Garrett’s going to the Super Bowl, wrecking this game would be a good place to start.
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