Week one has arrived, so let’s get right to our NFL DFS Main Slate preview. We will spotlight some core plays each week to help you build a winning weekly DFS lineup on Fanduel and DraftKings. In creating a successful lineup, we research and find positional values to see where you can save money and players with projected low ownership who can pay 2x-2.5x of their listed DFS salary.
A couple of key points, first, we need to get a minimum of 20 points from the quarterback position. Missing there can take us right out of reaching our targeted payline. Next, we have to decide whether or not to pay up at tight end. A successful strategy can be the QB-TE stack. These core plays will give you a nucleus for your DFS build.
These recommendations are designed to provide a core group of players who we feel could potentially be low-owned, good value, and help you create a unique build. If you are not using an optimizer, which many entrants will be doing, we have to find a unique DFS build to beat it. In cash games, look for single or smaller slates to build your DFS bankroll. Expecting to hit the Sunday million jackpot regularly is not statistically sound.
Pay-line targets in previous years for FanDuel were approximately 125 points, which is 2x per player. For example, a player with a $4500 salary needs 9 points. DraftKings was approximately 134 points, which is 2.5x per player. So, for a $4500 salary, that player would need 9.9 points.
NFL DFS Main Slate Preview: Week 1
Quarterback: Bo Nix (FanDuel $7.4K, DraftKings $6.3K)
At quarterback, we have a nice mid-tier option in Bo Nix. He finished as the overall QB7 last season, and in week one lines up versus the Tennessee Titans defense, ranked 25th in fantasy points allowed to the quarterbacks last season. In addition, the Titans’ defense ranked 31st in pressure rate and quarterback hurry rate. We also get the rushing upside with Nix. In 2024, he was eighth in quarterback rushing yards and top-11 in rushing touchdowns. With Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels the most likely chalk plays, Nix has a chance to be less owned. We need at least 250-2 from our DFS quarterback, and we can get it from Nix
Additional DFS QB Targets: Baker Mayfield, Jordan Love, Michael Penix Jr.
Running Back: Kenneth Walker (FanDuel $6.7k, DraftKings $5.9k)
We like Christian McCaffrey a lot this week, if he plays (insert eyeroll), but we can save some money by rostering Kenneth Walker, who is set up nicely for week one. Walker faces the 49ers defense that ranked 31st in fantasy points allowed to running backs last season. Last season, among qualified running backs, he ranked top six in first downs per route run, targets per route run, and receiving yards per game. Get in on Walker before his DFS salary is no longer a value.
Additional DFS RB Targets: Christian McCaffrey, James Conner, Chase Brown, Ashton Jeanty
Wide Receiver: Drake London (FanDuel $7k, DraftKings $6.5k)
Drake London is another terrific mid-tier DFS option this week. The Tampa Defense ranked 29th against fantasy wide receivers last season, putting London in a great spot to succeed. In his last three starts with Miccjael Penix Jr. under center, London averaged 13 targets, seven catches, and 21.4 fantasy points per game. Finally, the Bucs-Falcons tilt is forecast to be very competitive with just a 1.5 point spread, and the 47.5 point implied game total is tied for the second highest on the week one NFL betting slate. We could see a potential back-and-forth affair. Fire up Drake London in week one!
***Additional DFS WR Targets:***Ja’Marr Chase, Tetairoa McMillan, Courtland Sutton, Deebo Samuel Sr.
Tight End: Trey McBride (FanDuel $6.3k, $6.2k DraftKings)
Trey McBride has a real chance to be this season to be the overall TE1. McBride led all tight ends last year in fantasy points per game and first downs per route run. He was second in receiving yards and top three in yards per route run. The one thing holding him back last season, if anything, was the lack of touchdowns. The most pronounced stat is that his expected fantasy points per game were 19.6. That is the ceiling McBride can reach. At $6.3k, he has a legit chance to pay at least 3x his salary. The two concerns are, one, the modest 43-point implied game total. The second, Arizona is a near touchdown favorite and leaning on the run game in the second half.
***Additional DFS TE Targets:***David Njoku, Tyler Warren
D/ST: Arizona Cardinals (FanDuel $4.2k, DraftKings $3.5k)
Arizona’s defense might end up chalk, but they have a great setup despite playing in New Orleans. The Saints are starting Spencer Rattler in their opener. In six starts last year, he had no games with more than one touchdown pass and finished no better than QB20 in five of those.
From week 10 on, the Cardinals’ defense yielded the fewest passing touchdowns, ranked top-12 in yards per attempt, and sixth in passing yards allowed. The Cardinals are lined up to not only be a great DFS play, but a top streaming unit in redraft leagues.
Additional DST Targets:Steelers, Jets, 49ers
DFS Tournament Stacks:
Joe Burrow-Chase Brown-Ja’Marr Chase
Jayden Daniels-Deebo Samuel Sr.-Terry McLaurin
B0 Nix-Coutland Sutton
Bryce Young-Tetoria McMillan
Michael Penix Jr.- Drake London
Main Photo Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images