One win in four games across all competitions, and elimination from the Carabao Cup at the hands of Grimsby Town, but Manchester United are set to explode.
Ruben Amorim has cut a frustrating figure in the Man Utd dugout this season as the players put in widely fluctuating performances.
The team is irresistible at times, then they forget how to do the basics, and then respond immediately after with another brilliant patch of play.
Much has been made of how Amorim’s team is creating plenty of chances but just not finishing well, but their excellence at one key thing digs deeper into this theory to prove that they are ready to explode.
Ruben Amorim arriving at Old Trafford
Photo by Ash Donelon/Manchester United via Getty Images
Man Utd ready to explode
It is easy to say that Man Utd’s expected goals are high, so they should be winning a lot of matches, and will eventually do so.
However, xG, on its own, is an extremely flawed statistic because it doesn’t take into account a key metric.
For example, a team can have 40 shots in a game from 30 yards to finish the game with an xG of 1, but they would easily lose to a team that took two shots all game, and both were of extremely high quality.
Therefore, saying United are undershooting their xG doesn’t paint the full picture.
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The true evidence behind the claim that United are ready to explode comes when you dig in deeper.
Man Utd have taken 60 shots in the three Premier League games so far, with two of those being own goals. Effectively, 58 shots have come from a United player.
Now we take the efficacy of those shots, and that proves why United are ready to explode.
Of those 58 shots, a remarkable 38 have come from inside the penalty area, closer to the goal, making it more likely that they are high-quality shots.
Just 16 have come from outside the box, while four have come within the six-yard box.
The 38 shots inside the box accumulate an xG of about 6.09, but United have managed to score just twice from that, indicating vast underperformance.
Therefore, United are not just racking up shots to artificially inflate their xG. They’re taking and missing high-quality chances that mostly average players would be expected to put away.
Considering United have two of the biggest xG overperformers of last season in the squad (Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha), it is reasonable to expect that United will explode when this trend corrects itself.
Shot Zone Shots Goals xG
Own Goal 2 2 2
Outside the box 16 0 0.62
In the penalty area 38 2 6.09
In the six-yard box 4 0 0.25
Man Utd’s PL shot zones 2025/26 (via Understat)
Ruben Amorim is right to stick with his system
Amorim has caught a lot of flak for not changing his system when the results have been dire, but putting the ball in the back of the net is the only thing a manager or their system cannot do.
That is exactly what the players are failing to do right now, which renders the talk of a system change irrelevant and misguided.
United racked up an xG of 3.93 against Grimsby, which is not even included here, as these are just based on three league games.
The underperformance becomes even more stark if that’s added, which points to the team being on the cusp of dominating but lacking confidence.
Sooner or later, the chances will start going in because, in the long run, vast underperformance or overperformance on xG is not sustainable.
Man Utd fans will hope the course correction begins after the international break because fixtures against Man City and Chelsea will need the players to be at their clinical best.