One of the most pivotal moments of the Seattle Seahawks’ season-opening loss to the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday involved a key fourth-down decision.
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With the game tied 10-10 with 3:28 remaining, Seattle had a fourth-and-1 on the San Francisco 19-yard line. The Seahawks elected to send out the field-goal unit, and Jason Myers hit a 37-yarder to give Seattle a 13-10 lead. However, the 49ers responded by driving for a go-ahead touchdown that proved to be the difference in a 17-13 slugfest between NFC West rivals.
Macdonald’s thought process
Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald was asked about the decision Monday morning during his weekly in-season appearance on Seattle Sports’ Brock and Salk.
Macdonald said that while the team’s analytics model favored going for it on fourth down, there were a couple of factors that prompted him to kick the field goal. Among those factors was a confidence in his defense, which had limited the 49ers to just three points over the past 45 minutes of game time.
“It was a favor to go for us on our model,” Macdonald said. “You’re making these things in real time, but it was a full yard. And I felt like if we took the lead right there, we were playing well on defense. And if we (make the field goal and) kick the ball off to them, it’s not four-down territory for them yet. I think they would still punt it if we got a three-down stop in minus territory.
“If you go and you get the first down, you’re not guaranteed a touchdown,” he added. “You’re gonna knock some time off the clock, and ultimately you’ll probably end up with a score on that, and then San Fran’s gonna be in a four-down situation coming down the field, … which is a difficult situation too on defense. I think the numbers are about 40, 50, 60% score rate in that situation. So that’s what was going through my mind.”
Macdonald was then asked whether he factors in the message he’s sending to his team in those difficult decisions. For instance, going for it on fourth-and-1 signals a confidence in the offense’s ability to convert a short-yardage situation, while kicking a field goal signals a confidence in the defense to preserve a three-point lead.
“I mean, of course it factors in,” Macdonald said. “But look, I trust the heck out of our guys. I think they trust the heck out of us. We’re trying to win the game. I felt pretty strongly about the decision in real time. But it wasn’t easy. There’s definitely an argument to go the other way – let’s go run it for a yard or (call) our best fourth-and-1 play at the time.
“But I’m not worried about how the guys feel. I think they have our backs, and I know we have theirs.”
Brock & Salk’s take
Earlier on Brock and Salk, former NFL quarterback Brock Huard and Mike Salk shared their reaction to the fourth-and-1 decision.
Huard adamantly agreed with kicking the field goal and trusting in the defense, given how well that unit had played for most of the day. Huard also pointed to the fact that Seattle’s defense is far ahead of its offense at this point, as the defense returned nearly every key contributor from last year’s second-half surge, while the offense underwent a full-scale makeover from last season.
“Who do you trust in that moment?” Huard said. “I trust your defense. I trust that crowd. I trust what my eyes have seen for 57 minutes. My offense did not give me that trust. … I’m gonna trust my group to go finish this game defensively.
“And by the way, your defense has played together,” he added. “Your defense knows each other. Your defense has continuity. … The upside, to me, was far greater in kicking the field goal, taking the lead, putting the pressure on (the 49ers) and trusting your group that is the better of the two right now. And that’s your defense.”
Salk acknowledged that if he were making the decision, he probably would have gone for it on fourth down. As he pointed out, a fourth-down conversion would have allowed the Seahawks to burn more clock – or potentially the 49ers’ timeouts – before potentially kicking a go-ahead field goal a few plays later. Going for it also would have aligned more with the physical offensive identity Seattle tried to create with all of its changes this offseason.
But at the same time, Salk said he has no problem with the decision to kick the field goal.
“The Niners hadn’t scored a touchdown since the first drive and their kicker was a mess,” Salk said. “They were missing (George) Kittle. They were missing Jauan Jennings. They didn’t have (Brandon) Aiyuk. To me, (kicking the field goal) makes a lot of sense.
“I think I understand the other side of it, though, and I understand why some folks are upset. And honestly if you had asked me what would I have done, it would have been a hard decision. I think I probably still would’ve gone for it, to be honest. … Like, you built yourself for these (short-yardage) moments. You had some success early by using (tight end) AJ Barner to run the tush push.
“So yeah, I think I’d probably go for it, but I’m not blaming (the loss on) that play.”
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