We finally got a week of real, live NFL games, and, in true NFL fashion, we got some craziness as well, like the Bills pulling off a miraculous comeback on Sunday Night Football against the Ravens, [**_Daniel Jones being the first quarterback this century to lead a team to points on all of their offensive drives_**](https://x.com/FanDuel/status/1964812762854646112), and the Steelers and Jets combining to produce the highest-scoring game on the slate.
With all of that said, it’s important to remember that we now have a week of sample data, but it remains just one week. Teams that looked great this week could faceplant next week. Offenses that were sleep-walking this week could wake up next week. We want to use this information to our benefit, but not rely on it too much. Which is why I should make it clear that I have started to create my BOD rankings for the season using the formula listed below, but I won’t list them in the article and don’t put too much stock in them until we have at least four weeks of data to go off of. In my previous years of experience, that is where I started to see certain key stats, like turnover rate or pressure rate, begin to feel more realistic.
As a final reminder, what you’ll get below, and every week, is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. **Tier One** will be my “elite” plays of the week. **Tier Two** will be plays that I consider strong, while **Tier Three** will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. **Tier Four** will be deep-league targets, and **Tier Five** will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.
**_WEEK 1: 5-5_**
**_SEASON-LONG: 5-5_**
### **BOD Formula and Philosophy**
If you’ve read my earlier articles, then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup, as bad defenses are also bad for a reason.
To find the best plays every week, I utilize the following formula:
_((PFF PASS RUSH PRODUCTIVITY RATE x 2) + (TURNOVER RATE x 2))_
**_MINUS_**
_(EXPECTED POINTS ADDED PER PLAY + MISSED TACKLE RATE + OPPONENT SCORING RATE x 2)_
I will obviously have to make manual adjustments each week to factor in things like injuries or weather issues, but I try not to rank too much based on “gut feel” or concerns about wind, etc.
With that out of the way, onto the rankings.
**DST WEEK 2 RANKINGS**
**Rank**
**Tier One DSTs**
**Opponent**
**1**
**Denver Broncos**
at IND
**2**
**San Francisco 49ers**
at NO
**3**
**Los Angeles Rams**
at TEN
To me, the Broncos are still easily the top defense in fantasy, and I’m likely to keep them ranked first overall until they face a truly formidable opponent. I know that the Colts trounced the Dolphins, and I know that **Daniel Jones** looked like a brand new man in Indianapolis, but we’ve actually seen him play like this before. I watched every play of that game because it was my game to blurb for the site, and while I thought Jones looked good, I didn’t think he looked much different than he did when he took the Giants to the playoffs in 2023. I think Week 1 had a lot to do with how bad the Dolphins look. While the Broncos may not finish as the top defense, I have more confidence in them than any other unit in the league this week.
The 49ers’ defense proved me wrong on Sunday and looked tough against what I believe is a good Seahawks offense. San Francisco only had one sack and ranked 19th in Pro Football Focus’ Pass Rush Productivity Rate, but they held Seattle to 230 yards of offense and forced two turnovers. They will now get a Saints team that held the Cardinals DST to fewer points than many were expecting; however, I think that has more to do with the Cardinals. **Spencer Rattler** is still not a quarterback I trust, and **Chris Olave** had to go into the medical tent three separate times on Sunday, which is not ideal given his lengthy injury history. I expect another strong performance out of the 49ers here.
We had the Rams in the top 10 last week against Houston’s poor offensive line, and they finished as the 3rd-ranked defense with 11 fantasy points. I’d expect to see more of the same against a Titans offense that was stifled against the Broncos. While I like **Cam Ward, Calvin Ridley**, **Tony Pollard**, and **Chig Okonkwo**, we have to accept that this Titans offense is pretty barren behind them, and none of those guys can really take over a game right now. Ward was sacked six times against the Broncos on Sunday and saw more pressure than any other quarterback in football. This Rams pass rush is just as lethal, so I expect plenty of pressure on the rookie again on Sunday.
**Rank**
**Tier Two DSTs**
**Opponent**
**4**
**Dallas Cowboys**
vs NYG
**22**
**5**
**Baltimore Ravens**
vs CLE
**19**
**6**
**Seattle Seahawks**
at PIT
**15**
**7**
**Houston Texans**
vs TB
**14**
**8**
**New England Patriots**
at MIA
**3**
The Cowboys’ defense is unlikely to be as strong a unit as it was when it had Micah Parsons, and I don’t think that should surprise anyone. However, they put up a solid fight against a good Eagles offense, and still managed the 7th-best Pass Rush Productivity Rate of the week while pressuring **Jalen Hurts** 42% of the time, which was the third-most pressure any quarterback saw in Week 1. Now they’ll face a Giants offense that allowed **Russell Wilson** to get pressured on over 40% of dropbacks last week as well. If **Andrew Thomas** isn’t able to play again, I think this Cowboys defense could make life hard on the Giants again.
Yes, the Ravens allowed one of the most improbable comebacks ever in a loss to the Bills on Sunday, and **Josh Allen** threw for 251 yards in the fourth quarter alone, but the Browns don’t have Josh Allen. The Browns have **Joe Flacco**, and he and the rest of the Browns offense looked entirely mediocre in a loss to the Bengals on Sunday. I’m not sure **Jerry Jeudy** is a true WR1 in the NFL. The Browns should have **Quinshon Judkins** back in Week 2, but he’s missed all offseason, so how much are they really going to put on his plate in his first week? The Browns’ two tight ends are talented, but this Ravens defense has plenty of playmakers, and looked good for three quarters against the Bills, so I’m going to bank on them coming out fired up and making a statement against the Browns this week.
My inclusion of the Seahawks in the top 10 last week drew some ire, but they finished with nine fantasy points against the 49ers, so I think we need to have a bit more respect for this Seattle defense. The Seahawks finished 9th in Pass Rush Productivity Rate against a solid 49ers offensive line, and while they weren’t good in terms of EPA allowed per play, they were stingy enough to keep the 49ers from racking up huge point totals. I’m not sold that **Aaron Rodgers** will continue to produce at the level he showed against the Jets, and I still think an offense that heavily features **Calvin Austin III** and **Kenneth Gainwell** will be one we’re OK targeting, so I’m going back to the well with the Seahawks as we keep trying to figure out this landscape.
The Texans’ defense was solid against the Rams on Sunday and pressured **Matthew Stafford** on 41% of dropbacks, which was tied for the fourth-most pressure that any quarterback saw in Week 1. This Texas pass rush could pose some problems for a Bucs offensive line that doesn’t have **Tristan Wirfs** and allowed **Baker Mayfield** to also be pressured on 41% of dropbacks on Sunday**.** The Bucs do have talent on their offense, so I don’t love the idea of attacking them with defenses in fantasy, but I think this Texans defense is good enough that we can get a solid performance this week.
This is the first real test of the BOD model so far this season. I really don’t like to rely on it too much after just one week, but it has the Patriots up at fifth this week. Granted, if you watched the Dolphins offense on Sunday, you’d also think they were one of the worst teams in football. I don’t necessarily think it’s going to be that bad in Miami, but that team does look like a mess. The Patriots finished 3rd in the NFL in PFF’s Pass Rush Productivity Rate on Sunday, and **Tua Tagovailoa** showed some real happy feet when he had to move off his first read on Sunday. I think the book is out that Tua wants to get the ball out in two to three seconds or starts to panic, and so I think Mike Vrabel will be able to take advantage of that. This makes me nervous, but I’ll roll with the Patriots here.
**Rank**
**Tier Three DSTs**
**Opponent**
**9**
**Indianapolis Colts**
vs DEN
**10**
**Cincinnati Bengals**
vs JAX
**11**
**Arizona Cardinals**
vs CAR
**12**
**Minnesota Vikings**
vs ATL
**13**
**Green Bay Packers**
vs WAS
**14**
**Tampa Bay Bucs**
at HOU
**15**
**Tennessee Titans**
vs LAR
**16**
**Pittsburgh Steelers**
vs SEA
**17**
**Detroit Lions**
vs CHI
**18**
**Philadelphia Eagles**
at KC
While I do think a lot of the Colts’ blowout win had to do with how bad the Dolphins look, we can’t ignore that the Colts’ defense was pitching a shutout until deep into garbage time. Their pass rush leaves a little to be desired, as they finished with the 22nd-ranked Pass Rush Productivity Rate on Sunday, but they forced three turnovers and were 11th in EPA allowed per play. This **Bo Nix-**led Broncos offense looked fairly mediocre against the Titans, and while they have some talented young players who could find their stride soon, I think it may be a bumpy start to the season in Denver. That being said, the Colts’ secondary could also be in trouble this week with **Charvarius Ward** in concussion protocol and **Jaylon Jones** suffering a hamstring injury. If those two miss, it’s hard to get too excited about the Colts’ defense.
The Bengals were a top 10 play for me last week and finished with seven points, which put them 13th, so...not so bad. A lot of their success likely had to do with facing a poor Browns offense, but they finished 8th in EPA allowed per play and 12th in Pass Rush Productivity Rate. This Jaguars offense didn’t look that crisp against the Panthers, and while some of that may have had to do with the lightning delay, **Trevor Lawrence** also missed on a bunch of throws, and we may have expected Liam Coen to turn that offense around too quickly.
The Cardinals didn’t deliver in a start against the Saints, scoring just five fantasy points on Sunday. However, they find themselves in another good spot as **Bryce Young** looked rough on Sunday again. The Panthers have some solid young players, but I think it’s going to take a bit for them to gel and adapt to the NFL level, so I can see using the Cardinals as a safe floor defense again this week, but I can’t get back to putting them inside the top 10 after they failed to deliver against the Saints.
The Vikings defense got off to a slow start on Monday night, but they responded in the second half and showcased the same athleticism and well-designed schemes that made them a fantasy success last year. The injury to **Blake Cashman** isn’t ideal and something that we need to monitor, but I think this is a talented defense that will be a tough test for **Michael Penix Jr.** The bigger question will be the health of Pennix’s top two receivers, **Darnell Mooney** and **Drake London**, who are both listed as day-to-day with injuries right now. If one or both can’t suit up, we may have to move the Vikings up in the rankings.
The Bucs Defense didn’t have a great showing against the Falcons, but they finished both 16th in Pass Rush Productivity Rate and 16th in EPA allowed per play, so that’s a middle-of-the-pack defense against maybe the worst offensive line in football and a running game led by a lesser version of **Nick Chubb** than we’re used to seeing. **C.J. Stroud** was pressured on 41% of dropbacks last week, and while the Rams’ defensive line is likely better than the Bucs’ line, there are enough talented pass rushers on Tampa Bay to take advantage of this poor line and put pressure on Stroud. If **Christian Kirk** can’t play again, this Texans offense might look a bit soft again.
The Packers, Lions, Steelers, and Eagles were all defenses that I was interested in rostering heading into the season, and I’m not going to get too down on them after one bad week or a bad matchup. The Packers are probably the best offense of the group, and the Commanders’ offense didn’t look great against the Giants on Sunday. However, the Giants’ defense is also a strong unit, so I think the Packers are a fine safe floor play, but I can’t move them up into the top 10. The Steelers and Lions defenses didn’t look great on Sunday, but I still think there is talent on those teams, and I’m not ready to write them off. I also think the Eagles could be a solid play against a Chiefs offense that will be led by **Hollywood Brown** and **Juju Smith-Schuster**, and perhaps I’m too low on the Eagles, but they lost so much talent in the off-season and didn’t look great in Week 1.
**Rank**
**Tier Four DSTs**
**Opponent**
**19**
**New York Giants**
at DAL
**20**
**Los Angeles Chargers**
at LV
**21**
**Buffalo Bills**
at NYJ
**22**
**Washington Commanders**
at GB
**23**
**New Orleans Saints**
vs SF
**24**
**Chicago Bears**
at DET
**25**
**Las Vegas Raiders**
vs LAC
**26**
**Cleveland Browns**
at BAL
**27**
**Kansas City Chiefs**
vs PHI
This Giants defense is a pretty solid unit with a potentially dominant pass rush. They had four fantasy points against the Commanders on Sunday, and I think the Commanders’ offense is better than the Cowboys’ offense. I think the Giants could score five to six fantasy points here, which would make them usable in deeper formats.
The Chargers pulled out a win against the Chiefs on Friday and will now face an easier opponent in the Raiders. The Raiders’ offensive line struggled to open many holes for **Ashton Jeanty** on Sunday, but Jeanty himself looked fine. **Brock Bowers** claims his knee injury isn’t an issue, so I expect him to be out there this weekend, which means this Raiders offense will be fairly average but not one we really need to go out of our way to target.
There are weirder possibilities than the Saints defense being usable in a game where the 49ers will be without **Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Jauan Jenningas and maybe Brock Purdy.**
I like the Bears,’ Chiefs’ and Browns’ defenses, but I don’t love these matchups, which makes it hard for me to rank them higher.
**Rank**
**Tier Five DSTs**
**Opponent**
**28**
**Atlanta Falcons**
at MIN
**29**
**Carolina Panthers**
at ARI
**30**
**Jacksonville Jaguars**
at CIN
**31**
**Miami Dolphins**
vs NE
**32**
**New York Jets**
vs BUF
Tier 5 each week will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.